David Smith, Economics editor
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THE US Treasury’s $700 billion (£380 billion) plan to bail out the banks could undermine the dollar, economists warn.
The plan, details of which were unveiled yesterday, will seek congressional approval to raise the total amount the US government can borrow from $10.6 trillion to $11.3 trillion.
It also gives Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, immunity from legal challenge under the plan. The US Treasury will buy mortgage-related securities “from any financial institution having its headquarters in the United States”, draft legislation said. Securities issued before September 17 will be eligible for inclusion.
Word of the proposals created a mood of euphoria in financial markets on Friday. But analysts warned of the risks.
Tim Bond of Barclays Capital, while conceding that the rescue was necessary to avoid the risk of depression, said: “The volume of fresh government borrowing and the fast expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet are both negatives for the dollar, carrying a potential risk of increased inflation.”
Other economists also think that the dollar could be undermined. Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and now a professor at Harvard, said: “It is hard to believe that the dollar will continue to stand its ground as the crisis continues to deepen.”
Critics have long warned that a consequence of the debt bubble would require governments to take debt onto their books and “monetise” it, resulting in higher inflation.
Market reaction in the coming days and weeks will depend on the performance of the American economy and the actions of other countries.
“The eipcentre of the crisis has been the US but we do need to see global responses to these issues,” said Gerard Lyons, head of research at Standard Chartered. He expects more evidence of US economic weakness in coming months.
President George Bush said yesterday the rescue was necessary to prevent financial contagion damaging the wider economy. He said the government had intended to deal with the crisis “one issue at time”.
But the financial “house of cards” was much bigger, he said, “so when one card started to go, we were worried about the whole deck coming down”.
Failure to approve a big rescue package would put “hundreds of billions of dollars at risk”, he added. “The problem would spread to the average citizen. This is Wall Street plus Main Street and I’m worried about Main Street.”
Senator Charles Schumer, chairman of Congress’s joint economic committee, said: “It includes no visible protection for taxpayers or homeowners. We look forward to talking to the Treasury to see what, if anything, they have in mind in these two areas.”
Political critics warned that the deal went too far.
“The free market for all intents and purposes is dead in America,” said Republican Senator Jim Bunning of Kentucky. The proposal would “take away the free market and institute socialism in America”, he said.
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I think Bernanke and Paulson intend to roll all the bad debt onto the tgovernment's books and then ultimately have the government repudiate all its debts, thus stealing from the Chinese, the Japanese, the Arabs, and anyone else holding US Treasury instruments.
Brian, Sturgis, USA
"Here it is. The Mother Of All Band-Aids.
SWY, Perth, Australia"
I assume you mean sticking plaster, but my first thought was of Bob Geldof doing an a Huge concert in China, to help the people of the UK :c)
John, London,
The US dollar is a fundamentally unsound currency.
it is simple madness to store wealth in that paper. it is really worthless
P Taylor, London, UK
This is some Big Daddy plan. I am just wondering if most banks and lenders will assign their mortgages to the U.S. Treasury, both bad and good.
And once the Treasury buys and gets all those mortgages, how will they go about trying to collect on them?
Richard , Indianapolis, USA
The real bailout is of landowners and bankers.
Now the bankers, speculators, landowners and other luminaries of rent-seeking have basically blackmailed the taxpayer and the government.
This won't end well.
jai hanuman, NYC,
Hanky Banky
dave, Stafford, UK
Look for $2 to the Euro and $1500 gold, quite possibly much higher.
William, Guildford, UK
This will now move onto a currency domino effect with the $, then the £ tumbling. Nobody is dealing with unsustainable consumption. Both economies are headed for the rocks unless the wealth creating sector is rebuilt - shift from Govt spending to tax breaks for the individual worker.
Stephen Marchant, Newton Abbot, Devon
The USA has two major economic problems, which it is not solving - the current account deficit and the trade deficit. The situation will get worse and subsequently other larger crisis will emerge until there is global economic restructuring with a new global currency (old currencies scraped).
Charles Magee, Preston, United Kingdom
Spend hundreds of billions of UK/US tax money on
1: Incompetent decisions, huge salaries and encourage continuance of same
2: Infrastructure improvements to provide jobs and quality of life for those not to blame for this shambles and enable them to pay their mortgages
And they pick ?
Michael, London, UK
The pound may fall even faster than the dollar if Darling continues his crazy borrowing spree to secure the fat cat bonuses in the City. Welcome to the Banana Republic of England!
Peter, Liverpool, UK
Here it is. The Mother Of All Band-Aids.
SWY, Perth, Australia
All the stock exchanges do is inject anabolic steroids into the economy and reap the rewards until it pops. Something has to go.
Darren, MANSFIELD, England
The world has a new country. Welcome to The People's Republic of America.
Kevin, Great Waldingfield, England