Gráinne Gilmore, Economics Correspondent
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The price of pork sausages has risen by 40 per cent in the past year and the price of bacon has almost doubled, as food price inflation jumped to 10 per cent in August.
The cost of food has soared by more than twice the rate of inflation over the past year and figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) show that the price of fresh items has increased by 11.9 per cent.
The continued rise in food bills, including a surge in the cost of cooking fats and oils, has raised overall shop prices by up to 3.8 per cent in the year to August, up from 3.2 per cent in July. This is the highest figure recorded by the BRC, which began its series in 2006. The consortium said that rising grain prices were behind the jump in pork prices because farmers were forced to pass on their additional feed costs to retailers.
The leap in the price of a carnivore’s breakfast emerged in figures compiled for The Times by mysupermarket, the price comparison website. It also calculates that the average cost of a family’s weekly shop has risen by more than a quarter over the past 12 months.
However, there were tentative signs that price rises may be starting to ease. Food rose by 1.9 per cent in July but increased by a more modest 0.3 per cent in August.
There are also hopes that falling oil prices could result in cuts in high street prices as retailers and producers are able to pass on their cost savings to consumers. US light crude oil fell by $1.28 a barrel yesterday to $108, the lowest price since April.
Stephen Robertson, director-general of the BRC, said: “For the first time since March the growth rate of food inflation slowed, offering the prospect that we may be nearing the peak of food inflation.”
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will announce its decision on interest rates at midday today after what is likely to have been a tricky meeting. The committee is trying to balance the twin threats of rising inflation and a stagnant economy. Inflation reached a 16-year high of 4.4 per cent last month and is expected to peak at 5 per cent before the end of the year.
The economy is widely expected to go into recession in the second half of the year after official figures showed that it had ground to a halt between April and the end of June. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, an influential think-tank, has forecast that Britain will be the only country out of the wealthy G7 nations to be in recession at the end of the year.
Gloomy reports yesterday from service companies, which range from accountants and banks to hotels and cafés, reinforced fears that the country may already be in the first throes of recession.
Activity at these companies, which make up 60 per cent of the economy, fell for the fourth month in a row in August, the key CIPS purchasing managers’ index showed.
The Bank’s interest-rate decision is complicated further by the tumbling pound, which is adding to inflationary pressure by pushing up the price of imports. The pound fell to a two-year low against the dollar yesterday at £1.77 before recovering slightly. However, exporters will benefit from a boost to trade as their goods become more attractively priced in foreign markets.
Despite the threat of recession, the Bank is tipped to keep rates on hold at 5 per cent until inflation starts to fall.
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