Angela Jameson
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The UK economy will fall into recession during the second half of this year, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Britain is expected to perform the worst of the world's richest nations, with its economy predicted to shrink by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter and by 0.4 per cent in the final three months of the year.
The definition of a recession is two successive quarters of negative growth, according to the Paris-based economic organisation.
According to official UK data released last month, the economy came to a standstill during the second quarter of 2008. The longest period of uninterrupted economic growth in British history has ended, leaving the country on the brink of recession.
Almost two decades of increasing employment, disposable income and house prices ground to a halt in June, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed.
Now the OECD is forecasting that Britain will fall into a recession, although it does not use the word, while the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada will slow, at worst, to a standstill during the rest of this year.
Jorgen Elmeskov, acting head of the economics department of the OECD, said that economic activity in the UK was expected to remain "broadly flat".
"Financial market turmoil, housing market downturns and high commodity prices continue to bear down on global growth," Mr Elmeskov said in comments accompanying the OECD's latest interim assessment of the economic outlook for the seven member nations.
“The eventual depth and extent of financial disruption is still uncertain, however, with potential further losses on housing and construction finance being one source of concern,” he said.
The US will see growth slow to 0.9 per cent in the third quarter and 0.7 per cent in the last three months of the year.
Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, will come to a standstill in the third quarter and edge ahead just 0.1 per cent in the fourth, the OECD said.
The OECD is forecasting the UK economy to grow by just 1.2 per cent in 2008, well down on its earlier forecast of 1.8 per cent.
Last month the International Monetary Fund predicted the UK economy would grow 1.4 per cent this year.
There have been a series of gloomy economic forecasts about the UK economy in recent months.
Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, said last month that the country would experience at least one quarter of negative growth in the coming year, while the British Chambers of Commerce has explicitly warned that Britain’s economy wil enter a recession within the coming year.
Tthe pound slumped today to its lowest level against the euro since the single currency was introduced in 1999, following a warning from Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, that the UK was facing its biggest economic challenge for 60 years.
Mr Elmeskov said that the basic message from his organisation was that the economy of the G7 club of industrialised nations was very weak.
“Continued financial turmoil appears to reflect increasingly signs of weakness in the real economy, itself partly a product of lower credit supply and asset prices,” Mr Elmeskov said.
The monetary policies being pursued by central banks at the moment were appropriate in current circumstances, the OECD said, referring primarily to the United States and euro currency zone where the European Central Bank (ECB) sets rates for 15 countries.
The Federal Reserve has slashed US interest rates while the ECB’s last move was a rise.
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David Martin from Bristol, I love your humour!!!
Mrs England, Patagonia, Argentina
I think we are in for a lot of pain. People have borrowed and borrowed and borrowed and pay back time has finally arrived.
The government should have intervened 6/7 years ago when banks started lending silly money but it suited them not to. Now we are reaping what we sow.
Melanie, Wales,
Look on the bright side, with councils now buying shares in peoples houses who are about to repossessed , all those other families that have spent a fortune on new build 3 and 4 bed houses will now unknowingly become part of a council estate.
Johnny, Peterborough, UK
unfortunately the government and the media ie TV and papers have talked us into the present situation too many people believe what they hear on tv and read in the papers all should be taken with a pinch of salt and mostly ignored.
Jeannie, leeds,
Mmmh thought our leader Gordon said that the UK was in the best position to weather the economic storm. When is he going to wake up and realise he is a total and utter failure
Keith Sloan, Nr Winchester, UK
There is no nation more able to talk itself out of a recession than United States, and non more able to talk its way into one than the UK!
Can I suggest that all of our politicians stop talking our country 'down' and start showing some leadership!
MB, London, UK
The largest debt per capita of any industrialised nation is just what you need when the economy slumps....
Gordon Brown you are a genius and a speaker of great truths. Thanks to you we have so much wealth in our homes and property portfolios we can survive any downturn!!
A Harris, Kettering, UK
Good thing that Gordon put us in better shape than the other G7 countries because we could have been in a lot of trouble.
Alan, Rushden, UK
Well it took "new" labour a bit longer than old labour but in the end they got there!!
Rick, Chesterfield,
I'm just pleased that Gordon Brown is taking the right long term decisions and that we are well placed to withstand the turbulance!!!
Richard Brook, Cardiff, UK
If only interest rates hadn't been so unrealistically low for the last 11 years. If we had not built an economic boom on credit. If house prices hadn't rocketed and we had lived within our means. If only it had been worthwhile saving instead of borrowing, how differently it would have turned out.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
The gloom has been completely overdone, growth of 1.2%
for 2008 and the same or a little more for 2009, WHERE IS
THE BIG RECESSION. No what is happening is a sharp
rise in prices, plus the need to pay down debt, we need
lower interest rates & tax cuts to help the poor.
Roger, Weymouth, UK
But remember, none of this is Gordon's fault (and white is the new black).
Marcher Baron, Welsh Marches,
bring Maggie back
Francis begbie, Leith, Scotland
The governments latest "ideas" ie. delay stamp duty for 1 year these are all gimicks the whole economy is based on an illusion, face facts this government has bankrupt this country
christine marshall, tunbridge wells, kent
Nice to see Britain still leads the world.
David Martin, Bristol, UK