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Britain's economy is set to shrink over the next year as a deepening recession inflicts the first full-year fall in national income since 1991, a leading forecasting group predicts today.
In a dire assessment that will fuel fears over the growing severity of the downturn gripping the nation, Capital Economics becomes the first significant forecaster to project that the slump will lead to a full-year drop in GDP over 2009.
Its prediction that national income will decline next year by about 0.2 per cent is far bleaker than the present average City view, which still foresees meagre growth next year of about 0.9 per cent. Capital's forecast comes after updated official figures last week revealed that growth ground to a halt in the second quarter for the first time since the end of the recession in the early 1990s.
The group's grim prognosis for Britain will come as another blow to Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown as they struggle with the rapidly deteriorating economic prospects.
The Chancellor is expected to bow to the inevitable in the autumn and downgrade drastically his present forecast that the economy will grow by at least 2.25 per cent next year.
Capital says that it was forced to cut its own assessment after the news that growth stalled in the second quarter, pointing to a new recession having probably begun in the present quarter. “Britain looks likely to be the first major economy to fall into recession,” it concludes.
The consultancy is also alarmed by signs that the credit crunch is set to wreak further serious damage through a prolonged lending drought. “There is a growing danger that the downturn will be exacerbated by a contraction in bank lending to households and companies,” it finds.
It says that with banks still struggling to raise fresh capital after heavy losses from the US sub-prime crisis and housing slump, they will be forced to further constrict lending, with serious adverse effects on the economy.
At the same time, Capital sounds a warning that hopes of stronger overseas trade taking up some of the slack in the economy look set to be dashed as the eurozone, the destination for half of Britain's exports, also slides into recession.
Although a fall in GDP of about 0.2 per cent next year would mark Britain's worst annual showing since 1991, this would also spell a much milder recession than then, when national income plunged by 1.4 per cent in a year. Falls in GDP in the first half of next year would be offset by some recovery in the second half, Capital suggests, although it cautions that the outcome could be still weaker.
While Capital forecasts that the scale of the downturn will quell inflation, opening the way for steep interest rate cuts next year, hopes of any early move by the Bank of England will be dealt another blow today by figures showing a build-up of pay pressures.
Incomes Data Services, the pay adviser, reports that almost half of new wage deals in the past three months were for 4 per cent or more, while a tenth were at 5 per cent or above. The Bank has issued repeated warnings that excessive pay increases will only curtail scope for rate cuts and risk deepening the downturn.
Anxiety over the threat to jobs from Britain's economic woes is also emphasised today as a YouGov poll for the Trades Union Congress (TUC) shows that more than 3.3 million workers say they are not confident that they will still be in their jobs in a year's time.
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Jim Mellon and Ali Chalabi in thier book "Wake Up- Survive and Prosper in the Coming Economic Turmoil" predicted this recession 4 years ago, and so did most people with a bit of vision. However TB and GB have been more interested in ego, power and image, at the cost of the UK's economic survival.
Gary, Bristol, UK
House prices will be the least of our problems.
We live on debt and it cannot continue. We don't produce enough wealth to fill the void. I have no idea where this is going, but it will get scarey. Blair resided over this build up. He had no clue.
Np, England, UK
We should be though the worst of it in 18 months time. 2009 will be painful with interest rates having to go up to attract capital. Biggest danger if Brown annouces a economic revival plan which will increase debt still further and we will all pay with a longer recession. Gordon is the problem.
Rupert, London, UK
Managing the decline! It is apparent that vested interests have been trying to manage information to prevent economic panic. They should be honest & frank so that people can make a sharp adjustment. Otherwise the recession will deepen as this Govt obfuscates its responsibility to cut public spending
Steve Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
Managing the decline! It is apparent that vested interests have been trying to manage information to prevent economic panic. They should be honest & frank so that people can make a sharp adjustment. Otherwise the recession will deepen as this Govt obfuscates its responsibility to cut public spending.
Steve Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
On current trends the UK GDP will likely shrink 1-2% over the next 12 months. Call it whatever you like - this is a recession. More worrying is that growth might not pick up for another 2-3 years, leading to falling incomes and general "misery" for the British public.
Paul, London,
Gordon B can't blame this one on global dynamics!
The world economy's slowing, but continues to grow nonetheless, +4.1% this year if you believe the IMF. America's posted +1.9% growth in the last 2 quarters.
The UK's in a downturn largely of its own making. What price 'economic prudence' now?
Richard Brown, Berkhamsted, UK
Labour have been overstating the case for the economy for years, growth is dependent on increasing personnel debt and a punative tax policy. The honey pot is empty what is Prudence Brown going to do now?
Raise taxes and blame an increased terrorist threat!
steve tea, manchester, cheshire
With each passing month economic predictions show the economic outlook to be bleaker than the last. What does that say for economic forecasting? it seems ot be like the long term weather forecast which changes by the day.
S.M. Cooper, Consett, uk
Like the entire UK community, trade union members will be also be exposed to the effects of a recession.
However perhaps they need a gentle reminder that redundancies will be avoidable and their jobs more secure if they restrain calls from their leadership for inflationary wage demands.
WILLIAM GRIERSON, KIMPTON, UK
We are in a historical cyclical downturn, so there is nowt you can do about it Alastair. So face up to realities and do whats best for the country........if you know HOW!!! because I dont think Gordon has a clue either.
louis, Liverpool, Uk
what did Brown tell us about stability...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
bob holmes, axbridge , England
How can they say that "Britain looks likely to be the first major economy to fall into recession"!? UK GDP was flat in Q2, whereas GDP of Germany, France, and Italy actually declined.
Tom, London, UK
Hi Cyril, lettuce looks like a bargain, I think I'll start a rabbit farm.
bob travels, stevenage,
Luckily with G Brown's input over the last 10 years everything is fine and dandy.
Pride in being brain dead.
dave, northwood, looneybin uk
If banks were to sell off all problem debts they would be more than capable of maintaining full lending capability. Their present actions are nominal to what they could do and it needs a strong Bank of England and FSA to get their acts in gear. Unfortunately that now looks more unlikely every day!
Robert D Marshall, LONDON, UK
The government is going to face continued weakening of corporation derived revenue for a long time. From my own company Corporation tax will likely fall 80% and our net VAT contributions have fallen by 50% relative to last year. It'll be borrow borrow borrow and also, likely, hike personal tax time
B Greig, Shrewsbury, UK
A drop in GDP puts the government in default of the 1948 Act that guarantees state pension growth by perpetual growth in GDP. There is no fund - what goes in one day is paid out the same day - so the 1948 Act made sure it could be called a pension by this binding clause. Darling the law breaker!
Sue Doughty, Twyford, UK
We need a down turn, a decade of economic ignorance from consumers, yes you and me, has got us here. Our greed of cheap credit and need to purchase inflated houses are at the route of this problem. Likely a naughtly school boy expecting a caning, we will need to brace ourselves before the recovery
Bhavin, London,
Growth in GDP is calculated net of inflation, understate inflation and you overstate GDP growth.
Now look at the table of food prices in the next column, and tell me that annual inflation is 4.4% as claimed by the government.
I'm sure real GDP is already dropping.
Cyril Berkeley, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
i do not believe for one moment that Darling has 'control' over budget decisions. The control freak Brown once in charge of the purse strings surely still is?
Is Brown likely to hand over the reigns bearing in mind his absolute control (keeping Blair at bay) whilst he (Brown) was at the tresurey
mike, gloucester, uk
Forget 2009, 2008 still has 4 months to Go! Taylor Wimpey's loss's mean "Any Tax Paid Last year" will be "Refunded" plus "Losses carried forward" mean "No Revenues for "Brown" for "Years to come"! So Much for all the "Forecasting Model's", like Ernst & Young et al? Take in the "Bank's"? No Tax Take!
paul, Newtown,Powys, UK
Against the background of an economy in recession, soaring inflation, rising un-employment, a near collapsed banking industry, Gordon Brown fusses and frets about the Olympics and a Team GB football team for 2012.
Like Nero Mr Brown certainly know how to fiddle as Corporate GB goes down the pan
willie mac, Arden, Scotland
Can I have Darlings Job??
I seem to have a much better grasp on economics than he,or for that matter Brown.
Perhaps he should go back to being a window cleaner or whatever he was.
antony Graham, southport, England
There are no indicators on the horizon that speak of any kind of recovery quite the contrary, Recovery is a long way off.
Peter, Vancouver BC., Canada