Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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Britain is facing a bout of social trauma as millions of overstretched families are hit by the financial fallout from another year of economic pain, the Bank of England's Deputy Governor suggested today.
Charles Bean highlighted the danger of stress and social upheavals for many families as the still deepening economic downturn worsens financial strains on vulnerable households.
"It's going to be a tricky period. Household real income is very low. That will make it difficult for households and there are difficult social issues that will arise," he said.
Professor Bean's stark warning came after grim official figures last week revealed that growth in the economy stalled in the second quarter of the year, bringing a 16-year winning streak of rising living standards to a shuddering halt.
Earlier today it emerged that the International Monetary Fund had cut its growth forecasts for the world economy. The IMF now expects world growth this year of 3.9 per cent, down from the 4.1 per cent estimated in its World Economic Outlook last month, and has trimmed its outlook for growth in 2009 to 3.7 per cent, down from 3.9 per cent.
The gloom extended to the currency markets as the pound hit a two-year low against the dollar this morning, falling to $1.8407.
Speaking at a conference of top central bank chiefs and economists in the US mountain resort of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Prof Bean said that Britain and the world were gripped by the worst economic difficulties for 40 years.
There was little sign so far of any let up as fuel and food prices keep inflation soaring and the global credit crunch undercuts growth, he noted.
"Last year this was a financial crisis that we thought with a bit of luck would be over by the time of Christmas, but it has dragged on for a year and looks like it will drag on for some considerable time further yet," Professor Bean told BBC radio.
"It's fair to say that if you look at the shocks impinging on us this is at least as challenging a time as back in the 1970s.
"Some people have said it's as big a financial shock as the Great Depression [of the Thirties], and as far as the oil shock goes the rise in oil prices is in the same order of magnitude that we had to deal in the 1970s."
The Deputy Governor's warning over the social toll as Britain teeters on the brink of recession will set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street, with the economy already voters' number one concern and unemployment starting to rise sharply.
The Bank has made clear before that, with interest rates its only tool, there is little or nothing it can do to ease the consequences of economic downturn on those who have left themselves overextended or exposed by piling up excessive debts.
County courts in England and Wales issued 28,658 repossession orders between April and June as banks and building societies clamped down on borrowers who fell behind with mortgage payments. The number of homes seized back by lenders was up 24 per cent over the same period since 1992, at the end of the last recession, alarming judges.
Experts have sounded warnings that numbers of people losing their homes and getting into dire financial straits over debt, as well as the scale of family break-ups, will multiply as the downturn continues and unemployment climbs. Numbers out of work and claiming jobless benefits have now risen for six months in a row, by a total of 70,000 between February and last month.
At the same time, Prof Bean said that the Bank was alert to the danger of further setbacks to the economy if the credit crunch leads to further casualties among big financial institutions.
"We have our fingers crossed but there is the recognition there is still quite a long way to go yet," he said.
"There are periods when markets look like they are getting better. Then another grenade explodes, another bout of fear of sustainability of some financial institutions, maybe intervention by the authorities. It has been very much ebb and flow ... "
He said that the mood among his counterparts gathered in Jackson Hole was "very much one of financial caution as regards the next year."
The Deputy Governor sought to strike a more reassuring note, however, arguing that should a recent slide in the cost of crude oil and other commodities continue there was hope that the economy could return to growth next year.
"On the assumption commodity prices remain stable and if anything fall back, then inflation should drop back as we go through next year. One would hope that the conditions in credit markets should gradually start to improve, and those two factors will help to ensure growth will start to pick up as we go through next year.
"But the important thing is people realise this is just a transitory period of subdued of growth and we will get through the other side and growth will resume to more normal levels.
"Hopefully we can go back to something like the steady growth that we experienced over the past decade."
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He who goes a borrowing (excessively, that is) goes a sorrowing. Let those who lied about their income and borrowed beyond their means as if there were no tomorrow, now receive the just punishment for their greed!!!
Justin Wrighteous, Pilgrim,
The solution to this crisis is simple. UK Goverment can borrow at much lower rates than any individual can. It should provide mortgage rates to all at cost. That way everyone will be able to stay in their homes and cashflow their way through this situation. The market will turn again.
Rupert, London, UK
The dirty word is "credit".It has floated people in styles to which they are not accustomed and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Time to have one car per family,one English holiday,one tv and record player.Eating out should be a treat and wives should cook for families instead of takeaways
james allen, manchester, england
There seems to be little public mention of credit card debt. People must be reaching the point of debt exhaustion and many will have to resort to tearing up the cards and basically saying to the banks tough.
Charles Clarke, Chester, UK
Little by little the truth about the appalling situation is leaking out. First it was not going to be as bad as the early 90s. Then, no way was it going to be like the 70s. Now comparisons are being made with the great depression of the inter-war years. I had a hunch that our leaders were kidding us
Frank , London, UK
the banks got us into this, they should be instrumental in getting us out of it. of course it would be too much to expect the government to stand up for its taxpayers, instead, they throw good money after bad! i would love to see a list of what labour has achieved after 10 year, nothing lasting.
mat, dorchester, dorset
i cann't see how the economy will return to normal until the war in iraq ends. over spending has it's part to play in this downturn, but once the war in iraq started, it really did start a chain of uncontrolable events. the governement or the b.o.e could never publically admit this, but it's ture.
richard, gibralter,
In the 70s, 80s and 90s the tories blame the unions and claimed the "free market" was the answer. Thirty years of the "free market" and the incompetent bankers and their regulators are turning "cap" in hand to the peoples government for handouts and the people suffer. Justice ?
jfp, east twickenham, uk
In the medium to long term we risk deflation due to job losses and people scared of taking on more debt, once in this spiral it is very hard to turn the economy round as Japan found out since 1992.
lee , Worthing, uk
Time to end the scam of banking.
Reg, Sevenoaks,
It'll only get 'back to normal' if people revert to living way beyond their means like they have been doing.
If that's the only solution, then we're buggered really aren't we? If the only way the economy can grow is by people borrowing more than they can afford, then the system is truly broken...
MD, Milton Keynes,
All i know is i have lost my job as a retail manager (£16,000pa inthe south) as the company i worked for sold up! and have never seen the job market so bad in the last 10 years. oh well...min wage here i come :-)
simon, worthing,
Too much easy credit for way too long. It's as simple as that. Housing price falls of up to 20% are looking very optimistic now.
Peter Jameson, Oxford, UK
Would P Grogan like to enlighten us why he believes the frugal should be punished (by lowering interest rates) whilst the feckless get rewarded? And more importantly what signal will this send out to people?
stuart fisk, clacton, u.k
This will be a rerun of the 1970s
Perhaps one day we will have a government who can see past the next election when making economic policy. i.e. no low interest rates to boost growth through unsustainable borrowing and no placing house prices above housing needs. Labour has been a disappointment
A Harris, Kettering, UK
And it could all so easily have been prevented if the 'independent' BoE had not encouraged irresponsible lending in the first place. Both the MPC and the FSA are useless.
Paul, Coventry,
When he talks about steady growth over the past decade,does he not realise that this remark can not be directed at house prices,where the growth, certainly not steady, has simply been a catastrophic disaster.
Where is growth to come from? Surely not the City Of London! Manufacturing is now minimal
jackie, paphos, cyprus
There seems to be a consensus that another major financial institutional will go to the wall over the next six months, with the smart money on Lehman Brothers. I'm expecting US sentiment to turn around in the New Year, and US economy to begin to bounce back around March. UK should follow later.
stuart, Brighton, UK
When Mr Bean says he is crossing his fingers and hoping - it dosen't instill confidence. Far better to be in control and raise rates. The Bank's current strategy to hope that external events will conspire to bring down inflation to its target over time is risky and puts it at the mercy of events.
Jim, Belfast, Northern Ireland
Nobody forces the general population to borrow money from the banks. If the greed of a culture predicated on the philosophy of 'buy now, pay later' is finally coming home to roost then so be it. You can only financially sponge for so long. 'The value of your investment may go down as well as up'
Mike, London, UK
How alarming!!! The deputy governor of the Bank of England is Mr Bean.
Charles, Wakefield, UK
Now that we are all poorer due to Labours policy. Who is going to pay the tax bill to feed the new poor aka the old middle class.
steve tea, manchester, cheshire
It is the greed of the lending institutions that has led to this mess. You can only financially rape people for so long. The British system is based on fear and threat (pay up or else). I just cannot be surprised when Banks go bust. There is a way out, lower rates to stop people going over the edge.
P Grogan, Redditch, England
We have 10 yrs of boom, unsustainable boom... now comes the bust..It will take yrs not months for the market to fully correct itself ..
Andy Cooper, Oxford,