Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
Download 'Too Hot', an exclusive Specials track from iTunes
Shares suffered a renewed battering on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday as edgy investors took fright over the twin threats of stubbornly high inflation and further fallout from the credit crisis.
Equity markets, already badly rattled by the risk of recession across developed economies, succumbed to another severe sell-off as investors’ fears were inflamed by bad news on price pressures from Germany and the United States and worries over fresh financial turmoil.
In London the FTSE 100 index tumbled by 129.8 points, or 2.4 per cent, to close at 5,320.4 as the bear market tightened its grip and Britain’s deepening economic woes hit shares in banks and retailers. Shares in Halifax Bank of Scotland plunged by 7 per cent and Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB and Barclays registered drops of 5 per cent or more.
Leading shares across Europe and in America also endured steep losses. The Dax index, in Germany, closed down by 2.3 per cent, and the CAC 40, in France, shed 2.6 per cent. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average sank by slightly more than 1 per cent, closing at 11,348.50 points, down 130.80.
The mood of rising anxiety in the markets was heightened by speculation over a US government bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the vast secondary mortgage lenders, and a dire warning of further financial upheavals from a former top official of the International Monetary Fund.
Kenneth Rogoff, the chief economist of the IMF from 2001 to 2004, sounded a warning that the credit crisis was set to deepen and was likely to trigger the collapse of a large, high-profile American bank within months.
“The US is not out of the woods,” Professor Rogoff said in Singapore. “I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say the worst is to come.
“We’re not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months. We’re going to see a whopper, we’re going to see a big one - one of the big investment banks, or big banks.” He also stoked concern over US inflation, criticising the Federal Reserve for cutting American interest rates too drastically to fend off recession. “Cutting interest rates is going to lead to a lot of inflation in the next few years in the United States,” he said. Inflation concerns mounted as official figures revealed that another surge in the cost of goods leaving American factories last month drove US producer price inflation up to an annual rate of 9.8 per cent, its highest for 27 years.
Global inflation fears were fuelled as German figures told a similar story. Prices for goods leaving factories in Europe’s biggest economy leapt by 2 per cent last month, in the sharpest monthly gain since February 1974. The rise lifted their annual pace of increase to 8.9 per cent, also a 27-year high. With the previously soaring cost of oil the key driving force behind the jump in producer price inflation on both sides of the Atlantic, recent sharp falls in crude prices have boosted hopes that some respite may be in sight.
Crude has dropped heavily from its record levels above $147 a barrel to below $115. Shares were dealt a further blow yesterday, however, as oil prices leapt, with benchmark US light crude climbing more than $2 to above $115.
Articles from our sister site WSJ.com:
You may be asked to subscribe to read certain articles
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
There is nowhere for recovery to come from, except out of the ashes of a painful, prolonged capitulation.
US Fed is likely planning to use inflation as a tool to help erode over-valued assets.
B McGregor, Brisbane, Australia
Part of the problem lies with decades-long dodgy financial/banking practices, which, aimed for short-term profits in return for a long-term crises. Another problem is the massive consumer-driven industrial infrastructure built in places like China that will collapse with waning consumer demand.
Mathew Maavak, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
The UK could not have avoided an economic slowdown.
However had there been some control over levels of lending/borrowing for house purchase, plus greater interest rates,this slowdown would have caused a lot less grief.
Basic,I know; but true.
The B of E and others,failed in their responsibilities
jackie, paphos, cyprus
I am for one flabbergasted by the way the banks and builders are rallying and falling up to 70/80 points over a few days and back again.The news isn 't getting better so stop following the US markets where sentiment rules(fiction) and not Fact! Fannie and MAy SP's are an example..Absurd
A.Don, Leeds,
The trouble with banks is that, at the moment, no one believes a word they say. This is exacerbated by the lack of transparancy on how much of the BofE hand outs they have taken up and the rating of the assets pledged. I suspect that they have used investment grade and are left with the subprime.
A.M. Williams, Stafford,
There is nothing new out there, the risk teh banks were facing was the same 2 minutes before Rogoff spoke and the same 2 minutes after he spoke. This was never going to be an short term phenonoman
CHRIS ALLISON, LONDON, UK
I wonder which hedge fund kenneth rogoff gets paid by, and what that hedge funds position in the market is, (short I assume on financials).
John, Leicester, UK
Given the world economy is overburdened with debt, shortages and rising prices for everything, just where do economists expect recovery to come from?
C Smith, Norwich, UK