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Up to 300,000 workers will lose their jobs by 2011, pushing the number of people out of work close to 2 million, a leading business group says today.
The British Chambers of Commerce, which becomes the first business group to forecast that Britain would fall into recession, predicts that the economic slump will force unemployment to soar by between 250,000 and 300,000 in the next two to three years, adding that total unemployment of more than 2 million could not be ruled out. This would take unemployment to the same level as the year that Labour came to power.
The BCC said there was a possibility that the economy would shrink during two quarters before next March, pushing the country into a technical recession. It cut its forecast for economic growth to 1.3 per cent this year and 1.1 per cent next year, down from 1.7 per cent this year and 1.6 per cent in 2009.
The Bank of England is battling soaring inflation as well as the slumping economy. Inflation reached a 16-year high of 4.4 per cent last month, more than double the Bank’s 2 per cent target.
But David Kern, economic adviser to the BCC, said: “Our view is that the threats to growth are more serious and more immediate than the risks of higher inflation. The UK economy urgently needs an interest rate cut to counter threats of recession.”
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits surged at its fastest rate for 16 years during July, rising by 20,100. The total number of people out of work is 1.67 million, according to official figures.
The threat of job losses will pile more pressure on beleaguered householders. The soaring cost of food and energy has cut families’ spending power by nearly £700 a year, according to a survey for Asda published to-day. Essential items now cost the poorest families an average of £7 a week more than they earn, pushing them further into debt.
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A total underestimation of the scale of the bankrupt Britain job prospects. There will be at least 5million if not more made redundant or laid of over the next 1.5 years.
R McAuley, Antrim, UK
There are a few Maggie supporters on here who either have short memories or are too young to even remember how bad it was when she was in power.
The country was in such a bad state when she had finished it was the main reason we emigrated.
I guess we have something to thank her for!
Paul, Perth, Australia
I hate to spout a cliche, but every time Labour ends its tenure in government the British economy lies in ruins. True, the Tories were over-zealous in their application of free-market principles (trying running a country on banking and insurance) but Labour have been even more short-sighted.
James, Newcastle, UK
@Peter, Aldershot - to make UK strong we need to cut more jobs, reduce spending power and eventually investment? Eh?
@Wilson, France
Sorry mate, but as long as we're in Europe, immigration will be free and unlimited within EU borders.
Howard, manchester,
New Labour? No, its just the same old tax and spend Labour. They want your money, even to the extent of retrospectrive tax on vehicle excise duty and abolishing the 10% tax band. They know how to spend it - identity cards NHS computer nightmare. Now it's all gone, including our gold. PRUDENCE?
David Nammory, Liverpool,
And still the immigrants arrive by the lorry / boat load. Things can only get better.
Richard, Ivybridge, UK
"How about sending all the illegals to Scotland, would that be okay with you? "
Brilliant idea - let's do it!
Alex, London,
"pushing the number of people out of work close to 2 million"
The jobless total is already past 2 million. How disingenuous to mention 2 million jobseekers when there are well over 2 million and the rest on long term benefits already. In fact aren't there 8 million already economically inactive?
judy, Liverpool, England
People keep on mentioning the US like its a great country. Indeed many have to work long hard days for a living, but this has a knock on affect on family life. Just look at the US inner city areas, which are rifled with crime, child drug abuse and many more social evils, much worst unemployment,
Adam, Birmingham, UK
Mike Nottingham
I hope your joking, 10 years plus ago GB decided that the UK would no longer be an economy based on manufacturing, thats why its now 6% of GDP as opposed 14% it was..
A huge gamble with the UK..
All our futures were based by GB on financial services that are now in turmoil!
Peter, Aldershot, UK
Does the 300,000 include Harman and Co?
simon, York, England
The people asking us to look to the American model for salvation ignore the fact that the recession started in the USA in the first place and has been deeper there than in Britain. British people don't want to have to pay excessive health insurance premiums, extortionate college fees etc.
Dave, Cardiff,
David Kern is spot on. The rising unemployment figures ought to outcompete the fears of the primitive but wealthy investors. The issue at stake across the West is real people and real jobs.
Simon, Copenhagen, Denmark
Important correction - "the Bank of England is battling soaring inflation as well as the slumping economy" - NOT.
It *faces* them - its not doing anything (actively), it is simply not changing interest rates, up or down.
"Sir Desmond" King showed his lack of mettle when Northern Rock collapsed.
Padraig, Perth, Australia
David in leeds,oil prices are NOT high. 1 litre of oil is the equivalent of 250 man-hours, unfortunately this precious commodity is generally expended uselessly.
The credit problem is a direct consequence of the thatcher led annihilation of UK industry - no products=worthless currency.
Richard Elliot, Lisbon, Portugal
George Bush and his family are oil barrons. Look at the price of oil from when he came to power to now. Its more almost tripled! Bush and his gang have grown rich! Now the world cant afford oil, people are starving to death and our economy is doomed!!! At least the Bush family got rich!!!
Timmy, UK, UK
B Yexley - Spot on! plus we, as a nation, have been fooled into being obssessed with owning our own homes pushing millions onto the housing ladder with no hope of affording it and zero hope of ever actually owning a home outright. Madness!
philip scott, Southampton, UK
Paul, Coventry
And massively increased taxation Paul.
judy, Liverpool, England
How can we work hard when we are a nation of office workers? Most people just attend an office in a city/town, sit down and proceed to chat about last night's telly! They don't make anything. Public and private sector.
John, London,
Britain is typical now of the worst type of deceipt---when the "sun was shining" they gave us all umberellas now it is raining they want them back If you trust politicians then you then in the final analysis you will suffer whilst they move on not even understanding the word accountability
neil durham, skopelos, greece
The welfare system was created to aid those people who CAN'T work, NOT THOSE WHO CHOOSE NOT TO!!!!!
Those who have a positive impact on the nation by working and paying increasingly more and more taxes are having to shore up the country, and keep those who do not. This ratio is now unsustainable
Sean, Reading, UK
Amusing to replay Darling saying the Uk was 'well placed to escape' the economic downturn that had hit USA.The rest of the cabinet parrotted his words on the media for a week. Now what have they all got to say ?
SUSAN, STRATFORD ON AVON, Warwicks
Overoptomistic rubbish from an organisation that failed to see what was coming in the first place. 20million will be closer to it by 2011. Just watch those figures for unemployment rise.... exponentially.................
R McAuley, Antrim, UK
It's world commodity prices - oil/steel/food etc which is driving inflation, not low interest rates. The US cut interest twice by 1% realising that it was the economy and not inflation which was the priority. It seems that recovery is already taking place. The Bank of England should do likewise.
Paul Savage, Lambourn, UK
By 2011 then the country will be in almost as bad a state as it was after two decades of Conservatism. Largely of course because this 'Labour' government has pursued failed Thatcherite policies. Her hideous ghost still has this country in the economically disastrous death-grip of the eighties.
eric campbell, harrogate, uk
Time to cut the welfare state by 50% Reward hard work by lowering income tax. Raise tax thresholds by £2k. Cut fuel tax by 10% Freeze all benefits except state pension, which should be linked to the real rate of inflation.
Victor, London, England
In reply to B Yexley, Ferndown,
Maggie has not been in power for 20 odd years. Zanulab HAVE for the last 110, What if anything have they done to help?
Rob Bain, Derby,
Only 300k, I think not. We are in denial here (again) we simply cannot make an economy work doing each others (financial services) washing. It will take generations to get the economy back in balance, more mfg, less govt, rational saving & borrowings ratios and so on. Benefits? Don't even go there.
Tom Taylor-Duxbury, Ludlow, UK
"Hardly news - could see this coming 10 years ago."
You can blame it on all sorts of things, even Canute (Gordon Brown). The truth is, things go in cycles. You are quite right Peter, this was possible to forsee, but not because there is anything fundamentally wrong with the economy!
Mike, Nottingham, UK
The UK has become a nation of benefit scroungers.
Chop the handouts and do a Tebbitt.
Get on your bike and find work.
Funny the new immigrants can find it !
Peter Kennedy, Bristol,
This recession will be more ruthless than anything we ever witnessed in the 1980's and 1990's. I forecast the end of big names in this recession !!!!
ian payne, walsall,
Tell me something I didnt know! ive friends both british and foreigners, on benefits who are pampered to by the state, go to work ? no chance, they openly admit there better off not doing so. Were heading towards a 3rd world status and rapidly.
Debbie, Leicester, UK
Many temp immigrants working in construction have voluntarily left. We shd encourage others who are not key workers to go & tighten the rules on those entering. Get the state off our backs so cut MPs, Govt, red tape, business tax & taxes in general. End council 'diversity' 'spies' & other non-jobs.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
Immigration has kept wages low, which has allowed the past ten years growth without igniting inflation through spiralling wage demands.
If it wasn't for immigration - we would have hit this problem years ago.
We are facing the classic stagflation issues that we had in the 70's.
jeremy, hassocks, sussex
Mr/Ms Yexley - no it hasnt occured to anyone beacuse its not true. Quite why the selling of assets would cause high oil prices and the implosion of credit after irresponsible lending is not quite clear. If you can explain the causal link there is an nobel prize in economices awaiting you.
david, leeds, uk
The C of C forecast is exceptionally conservative and fails to take account that this is a property led recession which will have a knock on effect to the entire economy. Look at how it's affected the US. 5 times the unemployment figure referred would be more likely, only time will tell.
colin, wolverhampton, UK
I'm glad so many agree that the UK needs a comprehensive restructuring of its social welfare system (which was not designed for mass immigration) and massive reduction in central govt.
Problem is politicans are too worried about how many votes they'll lose to effect the change needed to save society
JB, Seef, Bahrain
Malcom C, Amy is correct in that immigration is not the reason we are experiencing this economic downtown. The British economy has remained successful due to its immigration policy. Do your research! focus on the many people born in this country that are too lazy to work - they are everywhere!
Phil , Bristol, England
Savers(fools?),now get less net interest than inflation.
Also, the mandate of the Bof E is to control inflation and to protect the pound sterling.It is failing miserably.
Its job is not to keep house prices up, or to run the country on sound economic principles.That is the job of the government.
jackie, paphos, cyprus
We must stop being a benefit dependant culture and start working hard. Cut non productive Governrment employees and start producing and earning our place in life. Look at the USA and China. Don't look at France- they have not moved into a global economy yet. Remove 35 hour week and the minimum wage.
James, Sevenoaks,
Has it occurred to anybody that dear old Maggie Thatcher caused the demise of our country and economy by selling everything that we owned as a country.
B Yexley, Ferndown,
This is exactly why Obama would be a disaster. He would bring the same wonderful "change" to the USA that has ruined the UK. Things such as illegal immigration, taxes on the wealthy (ie anyone earning more than minimum wage), socialised medicine and all the other wonderful communist ideas.
NO HUSSEIN, Texas, USA
The British Chambers of Commerce just wants the BoE to reflate the credit bubble again by slashing interest rates, although it is high inflation that is already making us all poorer.
Paul, Coventry,
Sorry Amy, M.Wilson has a right to speak his mind, and I agree wih him ... if you do not agree with us, what is your solution to the country's problem?
How can a country the size of the UK support 60+ million people? How about sending all the illegals to Scotland, would that be okay with you?
Malcolm C, Edmonton,
Oops they did it again! labour have with some help trashed the economy again only this time there is no Maggie waiting in the wings with a plan.
Mitch, Wolverhampton, England
"Up to 300,000 workers will lose their jobs by 2011, pushing the number of people out of work close to 2 million"
Just in time for the Olympics. A financial disaster just waiting to happen.
Mike, London,
WAY to much TAX in the UK...Vat TAx,Parking tax,driving tax,EE,III,EEEE,III,OOO tax, So ,how come the civil (?)servants get paid so damn much ??? You Know, the PM, MP's,et al..They add nothing to the economy...they just take....dump them all.....
Mr Tim, san marcos, U S of A
In France: our 'Labour' hired about 1 000 000 people doing nothing all day. One comic used to say: hey you guys don't sleep at the office in the morning because what will you then do in the afternoon ! These guys have 6 weeks holidays. In fact they only work 230 days a year and have 148 days off.
E.Bee, Toulouse, France
Where is prudence Brown these days.
Locked in his bunker dithering whilst inflation soars and the economy stagnates.
Time for an election, but not if our un-elected PM can help it.
Willie Mac, Arden, Scotland
in the uk there are too many people living on social services, too many handouts by the govt. and too much entitlement.
in the usa there is no council housing, unemployment benefits are capped, employers give 2 weeks vacation pay and 2 weeks sick pay (if you are lucky) and you work a long day
lyn, so. california, usa
Except....immigration isn't the reason at all, Mr. Wilson. Fail! Try again.
Amy, Edinburgh, UK
Welcome to the third world! THIS IS THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME
Our privileged position is disappearing we are about to join up with the rest of the world who have to WORK for a living.
Tim, bournemouth,
What will Gordon Brown's response be to this situation? Slash taxes, VAT and regulation on corporations to stimulate economic and consumer activity? Or increase taxes on those who can "afford" to pay, increase public sector employment and welfare? n.b no welfare in China: this country works hard.
John, Guanzhou, Guangdong Province, China
Hardly news - could see this coming 10 years ago.
Look at the USA - Basically as a country you need to make something!
Peter, Aldershot, UK
To put the Uk back on its feet will need to cut 1000000 not required public sector jobs created by GB - i wouldnt worry about 300000 caused by the recession.
Peter, Aldershot, UK
This is the result of permitting unlimited immigration, not to mention illegal immigration. Stop all immigration right now and deport all illegals.
m wilson, bidachef, france