Gráinne Gilmore, Economics Correspondent
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Sterling fell against the dollar for the eleventh day in a row yesterday, its longest consecutive decline since 1975, as concerns mounted over Britain’s faltering economy.
The pound hit a more than two-year low of $1.8514 – a level not seen since July 2006 – further extending a seismic shift in currency markets in recent days as interest rate expectations for big economies change.
This latest fall came only days after the Bank of England struck a doveish note in its quarterly Inflation Report, leading analysts to believe that the door may be open for rate cuts once spiralling inflation starts to fall.
Investors are fleeing to the dollar after reassessing the merits of the US economy against those of the UK and the eurozone. They are betting increasingly that the US Federal Reserve’s next move will be to raise interest rates, while gloomy data from the UK and the eurozone this week suggested that rate cuts could be on the cards.
Analysts say that sterling’s fall is not over yet. Bilal Hafeez, a Deutsche Bank foreign exchange strategist, said: “We could level off at this rate for a while but I expect the pound will fall further.”
Paul Robson, an RBS Global Banking currency strategist, said: “It’s not been a good week for sterling but today it’s more of a strong dollar story. Clearly the Bank of England Inflation Report triggered the latest round of selling.”
The euro also continued its slide against the dollar after figures published this week showed that the eurozone was teetering on the brink of recession. The economy in the 15-nation bloc shrank by 0.2 per cent in the three months to the end of June. The dollar has rallied by more than 5 per cent against the euro this month and yesterday the euro dipped as low as $1.4665.
The pound’s 11-day fall against the dollar is the longest run of declines in at least 33 years, according to Reuters. The Federal Reserve shows a similar fall in 1989 but different organisations compare prices at different times of day. The Bank of England takes its closing price at 4pm and Reuters takes its close at 9.15pm.
The strength of the dollar will come as an added burden for the Bank of England, which is grappling with soaring inflation. The CPI measure of inflation rose to 4.4 per cent in July, more than double the Bank’s 2 per cent target. As the pound weakens, the cost of imported items in dollars will rise.
Imports from the US account for about 10 per cent of goods coming into the UK. Import price inflation jumped to 15.6 per cent in June, up from 14.5 per cent in May, official figures showed. However, exporters may welcome sterling’s fall, making their goods cheaper in the US and on the Continent. Yesterday sterling slipped by 0.5 per cent, to 78.85p, against the euro.
The dollar’s strength also undercut commodities, which are priced in the US currency. Gold fell below $800 a troy ounce for the first time this year yesterday before tumbling to $786.70. Silver also continued its decline, falling by more than 7 per cent yesterday to $12.90 an ounce. That is 36 per cent lower than the high of $21.24 reached in March.
Oil prices dipped yesterday by more than $2 to $112 a barrel as concern mounted about demand in the industrialised countries. US crude fell $2.67 to $112.34 a barrel after sliding to $111.34, the lowest level since May 2. London Brent lost $2.52 to $111.16 a barrel.
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3 recent BOE rate cuts have not lowered consumer rates. Instead, Libor has gone up and taken mortgage rates with it.
So lowering rates has not helped the consumer borrow, and has collapsed the value of Sterling and stoked inflation.
Conclusion? Market knows best, rates up, no free lunch.
Pat, Corramandel, New Zealand
As a joe bloggs and it being a bit over my head, I'm just annoyed Brown and Blair have frittered away billions of pounds caving into the EU and on every expensive 'hobby' they've had.
It leaves Britain in a worrying situation.
Richard, UK,
Do we have a Chancellor? If so what does he do? Mr Darling is supposed to be in charge of the UK economy, but I have not seen/heard from him at all during these difficult times ...
James, Watford, UK
As the Dollar I see has gone up similarly and simultaneously against the Pound, Euro, Swiss Franc, Swedish Krona, Taiwan Dollar etc etc this (relative) fall of the Pound is not indicative of "mounting concerns over Britain's faltering economy" but solely due to a sudden appreciation of the Dollar.
Bob T, Londob, UK
Lets get real here. I was stationed in the UK for more than
26 years in the USAF (BOTH AS A MILITARY MEMBER AND A
CIVILIAN). When I arrived in May 62 the pound was fixed at
$2.83 per pound. In Jan 85 it was as low as 1.06, yes, $1.06.
When the pound is less than $2.00 visit England .. Bill A.
bill alves, Litchfield park, arizona, u.s.a.
I'm no economist, but wonder if those who are are not just plain stupid. I have been in small business for 40 years now and have never made a mistake in the currency I sold in.
I sold to the USA in Jan 2008 for delivery just now, and payment in USD in October: I should earn an extra 15% !
E.Bee, Toulouse, France
Increasing Interest rates might not always strengthen the pound ..but it helps.
Sid Jacques, Durham,
falling oil price is good for americans but not necessarily for non-american consumers if their currencies against dollar fell larger than fall in oil price simply because commodities are priced in dollars.
Thuyein Kyaw-Zaw, London,
Those calling for higher interest rates to strengthen the currency should understand it doesn't always succeed in doing so. In a weakening economy investors steer clear if they think the economy will thereby be weakened further. Hence the euro has plunged vs the dollar despite the ECB raising rates.
Robert Cookson, Milton Keynes, UK