Gráinne Gilmore, Economics Correspondent
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The spectre of recession is looming over the eurozone after the economy in the 15-country region shrank for the first time since the single currency was introduced nearly a decade ago.
Eurozone output contracted by 0.2 per cent in the three months to June, after a 0.7 per cent rise in the first quarter, official figures showed.
Activity was dragged down by falling gross domestic product in the area’s traditional economic mainstays of Germany, France and Italy as consumers and businesses struggled with the soaring cost of fuel and energy.
A drop in exports because of weaker demand and the recent strong euro also curbed growth, which slowed from 2.1 per cent to 1.5 per cent on an annual basis. If output falls again in the next quarter, the eurozone will be in technical recession. A recession is defined as two quarters of contraction.
The worrying news for the European Central Bank was compounded as inflation in the region remained at a record high of 4 per cent in July. This was revised down marginally from an initial estimate of 4.1 per cent but is still double the ECB’s inflation target of close to 2 per cent.
The ECB kept rates on hold at 5.25 per cent last week, highlighting the risks to economic growth that were starting to appear. Yesterday’s figures will have dented chances of any more rate rises and leave the door open for cuts once inflation starts to fall. Economists said that a 0.3 per cent fall in France’s output in the three months to June was a surprise. A rise of 0.2 per cent had been expected.
Jennifer McKeown, European economist for Capital Economics, was even more downbeat. “It looks likely that the eurozone will be the first major economy to enter recession,” she said.
Britain’s exports are likely suffer as the eurozone accounts for more than a half of all its trade. The contraction in the French economy came as weak consumer spending failed to make up for a fall in investment and foreign trade. But Christine Lagarde, the Economy Minister, was upbeat, saying yesterday: “There is no question of a recession.”
German output, which accounts for about a third of eurozone GDP, fell 0.5 per cent, the first quarterly decline in nearly four years. Although the contraction was less severe than analysts had feared, Walther Otremba, the Deputy Economy Minister, said that a further fall could not be ruled out. Italy’s output fell 0.3 per cent.
Even so, output rose in some eurozone countries. Greece expanded by 0.6 per cent, Austria and Portugal 0.4 per cent and Belgium 0.3 per cent.
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This is no great surprise really as the Euro is really just a rebranding of the Deutsch Mark and whilst German manufacturing produces high quality products, its export base is suffering. Who is going to buy a BMW, Mercedes or Porsche now that they cannot borrow the money?
Paul, Coventry,
Sven, false comparison. Those 2 are single language single labour markets with traditional high mobility. Greek workers can't & won't just move to Dresden like Americans from NO to NY, or Ulstermen to London. The Euro did not create a single labour market except for a very few, and so it will crash
George Edwards, Beijing, China
George Edwards:
How can 'they' pretend the pound is worth the same in London as in Northern Irland?
How can 'they' pretend the dollar is worth the same in New Orleans as in New York?
Please, tell me, you surely are an expert!!!
Sven N., Germany, Europe
Another reason why we shouldn't have joined the EEC and relied on Europe for our imports/exports. It was safer for us when we traded throughout the world. The EEC now pull the strings and we have no say in it!
Stone, Enger, Germany
Recession means they can't hold the euro's value internationally, equal interest rates for club med and northern E-zone will create economic disaster. How can they pretend the Euro is worth the same in Romania as in Luxembourg? Madness. The foolish euro may well collapse in a prolonged recession.
George Edwards, Beijing, China
Richard, we may do 60% of our trade with Eurozone, but we are in deficit as a result. We lose money on our trade with the e-zone, we would be in profit from the same trade amount outside the zone. Economically, we need the e-zone trade like a hole in the exchequer. It's not about trade but politics
George Edwards, Beijing, China
It was inevitable that there was going to be a significant slowdown in the Euroland economy. Better productivity and wage control are the solutions. For Britain, a move back towards an economy less depedent on the City, and houseprices and a return to export-driven quality manufacturing will help.
Paul, Carlow, Ireland
"The ECB kept rates on hold at 5.25 per cent last week..."
No, the ECB kept rates on hold at 4.25 per cent. Please get vital facts right or we won't have much faith in what you say.
Thomas Denne, Limanton, France
A global recession is coming. With the financial institutions around the world making losses eventually of well over US$1 Trillion and the value of western banks, insurers et al losing US$2.7 Trillion over the last 18 months, what more can you expect.
Dr D Hill
World Innovation Foundation Charity
david hill, huddersfield & Bern, uk & Swiss
Martin,reading thiscountry does not rely on house prices it relies on debt all £1.4 trillion of it to date.
those taps which gordon brown built his 'economic miracle' have been turned and to cut intrest rates would send inflation even higher than it is now.
Look at the currency markets yesterday.
robert, havant, uk
Cyprus has a 4% growth rate with a 5.6% inflation rate and is 100% dependent on oil. Now that's something. How do Cypriots do it when England hosts the biggest and elitest universities for financial subjects?
andreas andreou, Nottingham,
Suspending stamp duty will not achieve anything while those very same prospective buyers are refused a mortgage or any sort of loan.
Sally Wilton, Bournemouth, dorset
I trust no one takes comfort that Europe is teetering on recession. It is where 60% of our exports go! Think about it!
Richard, Plymouth,
Daquan, I agree with you as regards energy prices but it is also true that Germany, France and Italy are export-oriented economies. They all export more than Britain. And of course their bigger export market, aside from the rest of Europe, is the US. The strong euro has also its donwnsides.
Horace, Florence, Tuscany, Italy
Thankfully, the single currency appears to be cushioning the global economic crisis for the Eurozone nations. With oil priced in dollars, a strong Euro has kept energy prices relatively lower than elsewhere, taming raging inflation. The Euro was launched just in time, esp. for the smaller nations.
Daquan Quartermaine, Middelburg, Netherlands
Suspend the Stamp Duty and reduce fuel tax Mr Brown. Get the country back to work and restart the builders. You should know that in the UK everything revolves round the house prices.
Martin Smith, READING, ENGLAND
Our esteemed chancellor will love these figures. They will enable him to point out that we are still a world-class economy, whilst all around us are floundering in recession. If one measures 'world-class' by CDOs purchased by one's country's banks, we are way in the lead in Europe. Good, eh?
john problem, Hackney Wick, UK