Iain Dey
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Inflation is set to crash through 4% this week - twice the government’s target rate - and economists are warning that soaring food and energy costs are poised to push the cost of living even higher next month.
Official data from the consumer price index (CPI) are expected to reveal inflation climbed from 3.8% in June to about 4.1% in July. The rate is forecast to go beyond 5% by September because of higher gas and electricity bills.
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee is tasked with keeping inflation at 2%. With the rate now double this level, it is unable to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.
If economists are right and the inflation rate continues to climb, Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, will be forced to write a letter to chancellor Alistair Darling explaining the reasons for the missed targets.
King will give his latest forecasts for the economy in the Bank’s quarterly inflation report this week. The report will be published on Wednesday shortly after unemployment figures that are expected to show another rise in the claimant count.
Hector Sants, chief executive of the Financial Services Authority, meanwhile, has warned Britain’s banks to prepare for a recession on the scale of the early 1990s.
Philip Shaw, economist at Investec, said: “We can all see the factors that are pushing inflation higher. The one thing that’s going to hold back inflation is weakness in the economy, which is preventing price inflation from creeping through into wage growth.”
The gloomy prognosis comes as Richard Lambert, director-general of the CBI, warns ministers not to play fast and loose with the economy. In a letter sent to members of Britain’s largest business lobby group, Lambert said the “first and most important” principle for policymak-ers in the current environment was to “do no harm”.
“Don’t mess with monetary policy,” Lambert said. “This would be the worst possible time to move the goalposts, for example by shifting the [inflation] target in some way.”
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Exogenous though the origin of much of the inflation may be, the BoE cannot allow wages to start taking off alas it may already be too late. RPI now around 5% - rock and a hard place. If a more realistic inflation index was targeted (not CPI) then we might not be in this predicament
j dickinson, middlesborough,
Inflation . What is the problem as most working couples and families have mortgages and debt , then inflation will erode these as it does savings.
If the goverment were serious about inflation then they would cut tax on fuel ,stamp duty and the likes, instead of stealth taxing at every opportunity
ged for New england, N Yorks, England
Surely the time is now here for teachers and all other public servants who find themselves facing riduculous government imposed targets to symbolically ignore them. If Crash Gordon and co can encourage the BoE to ignore their target for political ends, why should the rest of us bother?
Clint, Brighton, UK
What is the point of having a target of you continually fail to take action to hit the target?
Chris, Oxford,
1. 50% don't own their home
2. The inflation target cannot include mortgages (and CPI doesn't)
3. Healthy house deposit = 25%
4. Therefore include 12.5% of house price in CPI (50%*25%)
5. Tax neutral stamp duty change - make it progressive
6. BoE buys mortage if bank funds house building
Done!
Mark, London, UK
Fuel & food price rises are coming from external factors beyond our control but will feed through the economy in a year to 18 months. Everything else, including house prices & high street retail are already suffering rapid DEFLATION. Raising interest rates now will turn recession into depression.MAD
Jonathan, Birmingham, UK
Rigidly adhering to the 2% CPI inflation target in previous years caused interest rates to stay too low. Now when it is vital that interest rates go up the 2% CPI inflation rate is ignored. What is the MPC doing? The longer they leave this decision the worse the problem will become.
Simon, London, UK
Is that with or without including house price inflation?
Its not all doom and gloom - the latter is finally being addressed despite the fact it doesn't get acknowledged.
Joe, Manchester,
Shameful that the UK government has missed a golden opportunity to power the economy therough this problem by lowering petrol taxes.The loss of revenue would be more than made up for by economic growth. Instead they do nothing and lose tax revenue due to recession. Lobby your MP; use small words.
Scot Danner, Dubai, UAE
The general rate of inflation is significantly influenced by changes in oil prices. Some experts predict that oil could rise to $200 per barrel by the end of the year; others see it falllig to below $90. Yes there will be problems at $200 per barrell but surely not at $90 per barrell.
Chris Berry, Clitheroe, England
Surely it would be easier, and quicker, to throw a dice.
ronnie, bucks, UK
Food, Electricity and Gas, things that all of us need or use. The price of these commodities goes up, and there`s mass grumbling.
Houses, we all need a roof over our heads. The price of property goes up, year after year, and there`s hardly a complaint (apart from FTB`s), until prices start to fall.
Andrew, Birmingham, West Midlands
The CPI target is clearly a lie and neither the Government or the BOE MPC have any plans to adhere to it.
Rates should be rising .. This is not going to cause a recession, as Britain already has one .. but to leave your inflation target in tatters will only extend the recession.
Joe, Geelong, VIC Australia
Perhaps they can replace CPI with some other made up number that relates to nothing real how about gordons hat size.
Mitch, Wolverhampton, England
Surely the BoE can manipulate this figure downwards by lowering the weighting given to electricity and gas, luxuries that they are, in favour of DVDs and ipods.
Paul, Coventry,