Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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The dollar charged higher yesterday, extending its biggest 24-hour rally against the euro since 1999, as currency markets scrambled to rethink competing economic prospects in the United States and the eurozone.
Dramatic gains by the dollar that took it to its highest for five months against a broad range of currencies sparked predictions from economists that it is embarked on a long-term recovery, after a five-year run of unrelenting weakness.
The rally in the dollar in yesterday’s frenetic trading triggered the steepest one-day losses for the euro for four years, sent US blue-chip shares soaring and fuelled sharp falls in oil prices of more than $4 a barrel.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average leapt 302.90 points to close at 11,734.30.
Earlier, the newly vulnerable euro tumbled by more than 1.8 per cent to five-month lows just above $1.50 – leaving it almost 10 cents below its record high of $1.6028 struck less than a month ago. It lost nearly 5 cents during the past 24 hours alone.
The pound also tumbled against the resurgent greenback, plunging more than 2.8 cents to 17-month lows below $1.92, to close in London at $1.9159. Economists said that the dollar’s surge came after a barrage of bleak news over the eurozone’s economic outlook combined with more upbeat developments in the United States to lead global markets into a drastic reassessment.
While, until now, official eurozone interest rates that are more than double those in the US have kept the euro high by sucking in flows of “hot money” to Europe in search of stronger returns, analysts said that fast-fading eurozone prospects meant that this was no longer enough to bolster it.
“The dollar is, in my view, in a genuine recovery. This trend could run much further than many think,” Stephen Jen, of Morgan Stanley, said.
Markets’ fears over the threat of a severe eurozone downturn were fuelled this week when Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), admitted that the pace of decline in the economic fortunes of the 15-nation bloc had taken it by surprise.
Anxieties were reinforced yesterday after it emerged that the Italian economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter, suggesting that Italy is in, or is very close to, recession. At the same time, a key ECB survey showed that eurozone banks further tightened lending conditions in the second quarter, adding to economic woes.
“This is a major reassessment. In a very short period of time, the sentiment turned 180 degrees,” Ulrich Leuchtmann, of Commerzbank, said. “The market now believes that the US economy once again will be able to leave a crisis behind very quickly . . . That’s why we see the dollar rising like a phoenix.”
Renewed market optimism that US growth will revive and inflation pressures ease was boosted by a further plunge in oil prices yesterday, adding to the dollar’s upward momentum. Benchmark US light crude fell almost $4.82 in early afternoon trading, at $115.20 a barrel, its lowest since early May and more than $30 below July’s record.
In turn, the dollar’s gains helped to stoke downward pressure on the price of oil, as well as the price of other commodities. Gold prices sank by $18.85 an ounce, or more than 2 per cent, to $853.60.
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I can buy high quality goods from the USA and ship them to Australia and still spend 50% less than local prices. The USA is efficient. Don't let the sub-prime and housing issue fool you about their overall economy. First to fall but first to recover. But the socialist Euro-zone economies? Just watch
Arni, Noumea, New Caledonia
Growth was close to 2% annualized last quarter. There are a lot of painful adjustments, but the economy is apparently still growing, housing #'s are improving in the west and the "tax" of high gas prices is trending down. Things are improving where I am...sorry about about your location, Walter.
chris, Phoenix, USA
the speculators will talk the dollar up, the euro down,then they will talk the pound down and any other currency against the dollar so they can make their millions at the expense of the victim the man in the street.weve seen the hedge funds at work so here we go again.
le berger, teesside, u.k.
How does this affect InBev's purchase of Budweiser? I figure every 10 cents costs them $5 billion more, at what point does it become too expensive?
Ronald, Detroit, USA
Whatever happens to the world currencies makes no difference to Mr average. Expensive petrol, heating oil, diesel, electricity and gas, expensive food, council taxes, vehicle taxes, expensive foreign holidays expensive holidays at home. Everybody in debt, government in debt. Life is just wonderful
Phil de Buquet, Newport,
Interest rates double in eurozone, 2.5 times in UK those of the US. For those who think interest rates prop up a currency and keep inflation down, inc the BoE, the only thing that props up a currency is economic prospects which are not helped by high interest rates which depress investment.
Janet, London,
No recession in the U S of A...UK= Depression...tax delight nation is the UK....U S of A gave the OPEC nations the nrb 1 club sign...Don't tread on US....
Mr Tim, san marcos, U S of A
Sounds like market manipulation to me. Recent comments that the Mr. Bush and Fereal Reserve wanted to see the US$ rise hints at a massive speculation on the currency markets. Probably the Arab Nations buying US$ bonds with petro dollars. They are the players with the money to spent.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
Bet your bottom dollar.
Mike, macau,
Don't bet against the dollar. In the next few days, however, it will be time to sell it!
John, London,
Bad tidings: Nothing much has changed. The dollar has risen to its 200-day moving average; oil has corrected; gold is at its seasonal low. Hot money has accelerated these ordinary trends. The U.S. has entered a recession, just beginning. Broke U.S. consumers won't be saved by $3.50 versus $4.50 oil.
Walter Donway, East Hampton, U.S.A.