Gary Duncan: Commentary
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The bricks and mortar that millions of Britons have seen as the foundation of their financial future are crumbling - or at least their value is. It is now incontestable that, after a decade in which the house price boom made buying a home a one-way bet, a residential property slump that is likely to prove about as severe as the crash in the early Nineties has taken hold.
No one can be sure how far, or how fast, the market will fall. But a series of factors that are undercutting prices makes it odds-on that things are likely to get much worse, over a lengthy period, before they get better.
Most simply and crucially, with average house prices up threefold in a decade, a steep correction was overdue. Expert estimates of the extent of the overvaluation of house prices range from 25 to 40 per cent. While, on average, economists are predicting that prices will fall by 15 per cent by late next year, many believe the ultimate decline could be between 20 and 35 per cent.
The threat that prices still have a long way to fall is exacerbated by several far-reaching problems.
The most critical is the drought in the mortgage market, with loans much harder to come by and those that can be had more expensive. New mortgages agreed have plunged by two thirds to a record low. And while the average rate charged on a two-year fixed rate loan was less than base rate until late last year, it is now 1.3 percentage points above.
At the same time, would-be buyers are being driven from the market by the expectation that by waiting for months or even years they will be able to get a better home for less.
A final, vital factor is now emerging as unemployment starts what looks like a sustained rise. As in the early Nineties, this is liable to lead to more defaults of mortgages and forced sales, adding to the stock of unsold property in a market with scant demand, and piling more pressure on prices.
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Buy to let is indeed a business and as such is exposed to losses as well gains. People are free to invest their money as they please. Why not reduce stamp duty on sole/first property, and have higher rates on all further property? This would likely discourage some investors, freeing up housing stock
Bob, Melbourne,
Bill in Liverpool, however 'altruistic' you may like us to believe your motives, buy-to-let is a business, which has reduced the housing stock available for prospective purchasers and thereby helped to drive prices up. The collapse of many BTL pyramids will thankfully help to drive prices back down.
Paul, Coventry,
It's not a property slump,it's the market adjusting itself to the level where it should be,but has not so been,thanks to unscrupulous mortgage lenders scamming innocent buyers into getting in debt to give them commission as a result of buying overinflated priced properties.
Property value 3X income
james allen, manchester, england
Nice to see some intelligent coverage of house prices.
I recommend this guy as a replacement for Ann Ashworth, whose feeble article (well...sales pitch) today continues to make the Times property section look like the property equivalent of a shopping channel.
michael, glasgow,
You can not blame buy to let for this countrys financial crisis it is the Governments fault, I provide good housing for people that could never afford a 3 bed semi house. Housing associations and more expensive than the rent I charge and what I would like to know where is all the money going too from these non profit making associations?
bill, Liverpool, England
are these the same epxerts that said it was levelling out 3 years ago, then continued to accelerate upwards? 30% loss? big deal, at least you have a roof over your head
Liam, Aberdeen, Scotland
Ban any business from owning residential property. No individual should own more than two houses. End the buy to let scourge that kills communities and puts tenants in unsuitable accommodation. Invest in Housing Associations. Houses should be homes not investments.
don craigton, wakefield, u.k.
It is not the value of bricks and mortar that has bubbled up and collapsed, it is the value of the underlying land. The fact that this is almost never said is an important reason why the problem is not understood and keeps on recurring. Commentators should know better. http://www.landvaluetax.org
Henry Law, Uppsala, Sweden
With this in mind why should i buy now, when i can keep renting and see the prices falling. The funny thing is i'm looking for a house to live in, yes sound funny as you are all looking for a investment and a fast buck. Them days are gone lets all move on.
oliver, colchester,