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Energy price rises are set to push inflation up by nearly 1 per cent to a 16-year high of 5 per cent, far above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, economists have forecast.
The Bank gave warning in May that the CPI measure of inflation could rise to more than 4 per cent this year before falling again. But economists including George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said that inflation could rise by an additional 0.9 percentage points if other energy companies follow the lead of British Gas and EDF Energy by introducing large price increases this month. This would drive CPI inflation up to 5 per cent as early as next month, said Philip Shaw, UK economist at Investec.
Mervyn King, the Bank’s Governor, has said repeatedly that the uncertainty about timing and size of energy price increases over the summer was a critical issue for the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
In the Bank’s last inflation forecast, published in May, it said that higher energy prices were likely to force up inflation, but economists said that the recent energy price rises have been higher than than the Bank expected.
However, most City economists continue to believe that, having anticipated this factor, the Bank will keep base rates on hold, unless there are signs that the short-term jump is stoking further price pressures.
There was little sign that this was the case from pay data published yesterday. Wage settlements in the three months to June averaged 3.5 per cent, down from 3.6 per cent in the three months to May, figures from Incomes Data Services show, signalling that the higher cost of living has not been reflected in higher pay packets.
The MPC fears that higher wage bills would cause firms to increase their prices, further fuelling inflation.
However, a number of economists feel that the higher peak for inflation means that any short-term move in interest rates is now more likely to be an increase than a cut. Vicky Redwood, of Capital Economics, said: “If the committee were seriously minded to raise rates, now would be the time to do it.
“The quarterly inflation report is published a week after the meeting, giving the committee the opportunity to explain a rate change more clearly.”
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Absolutely right, V Cooper, Somerset, UK - What's the chance we'll see a temporary downward "blip" in inflation just for September only? 2% or thereabouts? As usual pensioners, recipients of other benefits and public sector workers will be sold a pup again next time their benefits/pay is reviewed
Richard, Bexhill, UK
This is a 'lose-lose' situation for the BOE; a proactive approach in either direction with interest rates will make the situation worse; they are in a classic 'catch22' and are impotent in the face of world events entirely outside their control.
john, milton keynes,
Remember increments in State Pension are decided by inflation level in September this year. Prepare to see a "smoke and mirrors" act which will put Pensioners in even more hardship.
V Cooper, Somerset, UK
5% inflation? I sometimes wonder who calculates these percents. I filled my petrol tank last year for £50 pounds. Yesterday, 3/4's a tank was £75. Last year I was spending £40 a week on food for me and my wife. This year, buying the same foods in the same quantities, it is costs £100 a week.
Richard Way, Luton, UK
5% inflation by government figures is probably nearer 10 - 15% by what people actually experience. Even so don't expect the MPC to raise rates they have given up on trying to bring inflation down. Raising rates would reduce imported inflation from energy etc but I bet they won't do it.
chris, brighton,
5% Inflation! We are a nation of importers. Ask any business that is negotiating prices for 2009 from manufacturers abroad especially in the Far East and they will tell you that the increases will be 20%+. Inflation could hit 8% this winter. The Bank will have to raise rates.
Grant, Shrophire
grant williams, shrewsbury, uk
The BoE are reluctant to rasie interest rates as it will further impact on the housing market but housing costs are not included in the CPI calculation so it should be irrelevant. They should have increased rates back in 2005 but again they shyed away from that decision just like they are doing now.
Chris, Oxford,
Gas has risen because of wholesale gas prices following oil prices not as a result the pound. The gas market should be seperated from the oil price so that prices are determined by suppy and damand not the price of oil. You can thank the EU for the rise in gas prices as they attached gas to oil.
Dave, Mold, UK
Dont forget thegoverment take a cut on the vat on our bills how about scrapping this tax
dave, london, uk
Again, the British are held to ransom by EDF, Centrica and their shareholders while the wholesale price of gas has just halved. Where is the positive government action that Brown and his sheep have bleated about for the last umpteen years? Is there anyone in this country who cares about us?
Ian Dickson, Brighton, UK
One factor in high energy prices has been the BoE's deliberate devaluation of Sterling. As well as pushing up the cost of gas imports from the continent, the Eurozone-owned utilities need to maintain their profit margins, which they can only do by pushing Sterling-denominated prices ever upwards.
Paul, Coventry,
The MPR is unlikely to raise rates unless core inflation, including wages, rises significantly. The Governor will write letters to the Chancellor explaining that the main cause is 'imported inflation' over which it is powerless. Lowering rates could also affect sterling - and increase import costs.
Nigel Grimshaw, Cambridge, UK
Cutting rates 3 times since last December was complete madness.Sterling fell and as a result imported gas prices rose.The MPCs job has been very easy for 10 years but now they have a problem.If they had raised rates 3 years ago instead of cutting them,their job would have been a lot easier now.
stephen hulton, eure, france
If inflation,as ludicrously measured, goes to 5% and the Bof E does not raise interest rates it would demonstrate complete
abdication of medium to long term financial reponsibility; with dire consequences for the country.
jackie, paphos, cyprus