Gary Duncan and Tom Bawden
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The stock market sank deeper into the clutches of a bear market yesterday as confirmation of an unprecedented slump in Britain's house prices inflamed fears of recession.
As a retreat from equities threatened to become a headlong flight, the latest plunge in blue-chip shares drove the all-share index decisively into bear market territory. A decision by the Bank of England to spurn pleas for an interest rate cut from 5 per cent fuelled another brutal stock market sell-off, leaving the all-share index down by a further 2.1 per cent.
The latest slump in the broadest benchmark index pushed it over the threshold of 20 per cent losses that defines a bear market. The FTSE 100 index also endured another drubbing, falling 122.8 points, or 2.2 per cent, to close at 5,406.8, on the cusp of a bear market.
Based on the all-share index's losses since last June, its bear market would be judged as already having lasted for 63 weeks, making it longer than four of the five previous bear market episodes since 1980.
According to David Schwartz, the stock market historian, London shares will recover into a new bull market by New Year's Eve. However, he gave warning that this expected upturn in shares may be very weak.
City strategists are equally gloomy, believing that mounting economic woes, and their toll on profits, spell more investor misery. “The equity markets are basically tanking on the back of declining earnings prospects,” Peter Dixon, of Commerzbank, said.
Fears over rapidly worsening prospects mounted after Halifax, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, said that average house prices fell by another 2 per cent last month, after a 2.5 per cent drop in May. With prices down by 8.7 per cent from a year ago, the pace of the market's slump is the fastest in the post-war era, economists said.
Investors were further rattled as Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said that global upheavals are not over, and more signs emerged of financial stress for American institutions. “The financial turmoil is ongoing,” Mr Bernanke said.
Shares in leading US financial groups fell further. Lehman Brothers fell almost 20 per cent as Pimco, the bond giant, was forced to deny that it had pulled business from the Wall Street bank. There was also growing anxiety over the solvency of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the state-backed groups that help to provide liquidity to America's mortgage market.
Shares in the two companies plunged by as much as 24 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively, as concerns grew that shareholders will be wiped out should Washington be forced to step in with a rescue if the two lenders fail to raise billions of dollars needed to weather the housing slump.
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Robert of Milton Keynes says that business leaders did not see the downturn coming. I think the only persons who did not see it coming was Gordon Brown and his Government.
Steve Brisbane, Qld.
steve fisher, brisbane, australia
Lidl for shopping, anybody?
John, London,
and there's no doubt about it, the fat lady has sung alright!!
mike, oxford, england
Months ago some of us were warning we needed to prepare for recession but were told that the real world out there was still healthy with unemployment so low. People kept relying on data that reflected the past. Now we are told by business leaders they are surprised by the downturn: they never learn
Robert Cookson, Milton Keynes, UK
To understand where we are we need to look at global fundamentals, China increased supply of goods without adopting the demand profile of developed economies, hence low inflation and a surplus. Now demand in China is increasing...
Doesn't look good for UK Plc where few know how to run a business!
Jon, London,
I think people are panicking too early!
Rick, Manchester,
Thanks for that Mike. We are, of course, all very envious of Germany's rock solid economy over here.
Graeme Brown, Milton Keynes,
Look at the fundamentals and ask why the market should rise?
Systemic raw material and energy shortages and worldwide crop failures cannot make for economic confidence. Even consumers in the west are hitting the survivor mode button as they struggle with basics. There will be trouble ahead!
C Smith, Norwich, UK
The music has stopped........It's time to PAY.
Mike, Berlin,