Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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The European Central Bank defied deepening gloom over the eurozone's prospects and intense political pressure yesterday to raise interest rates to their highest level for almost seven years.
The quarter-point increase to 4.25 per cent came after Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the ECB, sounded a warning on Wednesday that eurozone inflation could “explode” without decisive action.
The rise was the first for a year and took rates to a level last seen in September 2001, before a series of cuts in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States.
The ECB's decision to spurn pleas from European leaders, led by President Sarkozy of France, to hold fire came after a jump in eurozone inflation to 4percent in June set alarm bells ringing over rising price pressures.
Anxieties over mounting inflationary risks in the eurozone were inflamed further this week after a fresh jump in the cost of goods leaving factories. Producer output prices leapt by 1.7 per cent in May to stand 7.1 per cent up on a year earlier, driven by an 18.2 per cent year-on-year rise in energy costs.
The ECB's move came despite bleak figures in the latest purchasing managers' survey from the eurozone which showed that its vast services sector, the engine room of its economy, had shrunk in June for the first time since mid-2003.
The unanimous verdict from the ECB Governing Council came under immediate attack from the European Trade Union Confederation. “The decision is dangerous, counterproductive and not necessary,” it said.
However, Mr Trichet soothed edgy markets as he struck a neutral stance over the threat of more rate increases to follow, leaving the door open to further action but signalling that the ECB was in no hurry to tighten policy again.
“Starting from here, I have no bias,” he said during a press conference in which he avoided using any of the codewords he had previously uttered to pave the way for rate moves.
Although Mr Trichet played down the significance of his choice of words, European stock markets took reassurance from his comments to end higher after their most volatile trading day in more than three months.
Eurozone interest rate futures also rose, pricing in a reduced chance of further, early rate moves.
The ECB's move did little to dispel growing fears over the outlook for the eurozone economy, however, as yesterday's purchasing managers' survey was a catalogue of gloom for services companies across the 15-nation bloc.
Activity in the services sector stagnated or fell across most eurozone countries last month, the survey showed.
It also indicated that business expectations among services companies had slumped to their lowest since November 2001, as inflows of new business fell and outstanding business contracted at the fastest pace since mid-2003.
Economists said the growing signs that the eurozone economy was faltering badly, even as price pressures continued to build, were likely to make yesterday's interest rate increase a one-off move for the year.
Gloom across the Atlantic over prospects in the US also deepened as the latest snapshot of American services companies from the Institute of Supply Management also showed a surprise fall in the sector's activity last month, while employers cut staff for the sixth consecutive month in the longest such run of job losses since 2002.
About 62,000 jobs were cut in the US last month, bringing losses for the year so far to 438,000, and applications for unemployment benefits leapt to 404,000 last week - a level associated with past recessions.
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I sort of agree with Bryan O'D, but I think the key is that the main Central Banks should have the same mandate, whatever it is. An over-strong euro does not offset an over-weak dollar, each is a serious global problem & together they significantly add to the current global economic problems.
Alan, London, UK
Germans like it, French and Italians hate it - let's see how the bullies at the heart of the EU get on now.
Andrew J Iddon, London, UK
Three out of the four major central banks have raised interest rates, China, India and the ECB. The fourth one , the Federal Reserve still refuses to help to correct the huge economic distortions caused by inflation.
Let us hope that the Americans will finally see the light.
Sara Scherrer, Zurich, Switzerland
That's great! My country is set to grow 0% this year because of the incompence of my government and now we also have Trichet raising rates. It is hard to decide who's more incompentent between my government and the ECB. The world is run by a bunch of idiots. That's the real problem.
Horace, Firenze (Florence), Italy
Gavin in Dublin, therein lies the fundamental flaw with the Euro. If the Republic of Ireland had been able to set its own interest rates since 1999, they would not have been as low as 2% and its housing bubble would not be so huge - at least no bigger, per head of population, than that of the UK.
Paul, Coventry,
The Fed drops rates, the ECB ups them. If both have the same problems who is right?
Down, = weaker currency, inflation on imports, less saving more spending/jobs, and assets eventually are capitalised at higher prices. Up, cuts imported inflation & spending, + attracts foreign capital /credits.
N Reed, London, UK
Peter Green Cork: Are you sure that all the people who voted NO to Lisbon would vote NO to EU membership? (This is just a question). Also if you get out of the euro, the other option is pegging you currency to the Pound, so eventually it will be the Bank of England deciding. Would that be better?
Horace, Firenze (Florence), Italy
As regards Gavin's comment, I have my doubts that Brussels or Frankfurt will be too troubled about the impact on Ireland of this move. Ireland wants no part in Europe anymore. So said the Irish. And who knows anymore who is right.
Peter Green, Cork, Ireland
At last a positive measure to curb inflation and rampant oil prices,,, why prolong the pain ,, get interest rates up for a year.
Instead of half a decade of what we have now
Nicholas Iles, Oswestry, Shropshire
The logic behind putting interest rates up to combat rising fuel and food prices is simple. When interest rates are increased, the currency in question goes up in value against other currencies. This in turn increases the purchasing power of that currency and hence fuel and food become cheaper.
trevor, Looe, UK
Putting interest rates up to combat inflation driven by credit is one thing, putting interest rates up by .25% to combat higher fuel and food prices is another thing altogether, hard to see the logic in it and last thing countries such as Ireland and Spain needed who have additional property issues
Gavin, Dublin, Ireland
ECB should have acted against inflation-expectations months earlier.
Now a pitiful 0.25% hike, it's just symbolic.
The sooner the economy slows down and house-prices fall, the sooner we can get to the normal life.
Why to suffer from the misery for years.
inut jota, Karteis,
The ECB should have it's remit expanded.
The problem with ECB policy is - it is geared towards inflation only. A meaningful and indeed required reform of the ECB would see it's remit expanded to cover growth also.
Then we would see more balanced interest rates from Frankfurt.
Bryan O'Donoghue, Bray, Ireland
Good news for those paid in Euro's bad news for those paid in Sterling!
Chris James (ex-pat), Cape Town, South Africa