Gary Duncan, Economics Editor, and Judith Heywood, Deputy Property Editor
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Families are more fearful about their financial future than during the depths of the last recession, as they struggle with soaring food and fuel costs.
The drop in confidence, highlighted in new monthly figures, threatens to exacerbate Britain’s economic woes as hard-pressed consumers curb their spending, further undermining economic growth. Last week’s revised figures found that the pace of growth halved to 0.3 per cent, the lowest level for three years.
The GfK NOP figures for June on consumer sentiment come as fresh evidence emerges that the housing slump is getting worse and now affects most of England and Wales.
A new survey from Lloyds TSB also shows that people are more worried about losing their job than at any point in the past three years, as employers feel the effects of the downturn and may have to lay off staff.
The monthly poll of consumer sentiment found that householders’ confidence about future economic prospects had sunk to its lowest level since 1982. Confidence in existing economic conditions dropped during June to levels not seen since late 1992, at the end of the last recession.
The rapid disappearance of the economic “feel-good factor” will deal a fresh blow to Gordon Brown as he marks the end of his first year at No 10 with his popularity falling alongside the economy’s prospects.
House-price falls are accelerating as potential buyers retreat from the market in expectation of cheaper property values in future. The number of homes changing hands last month fell to its lowest in 30 years, according to the property website Hometrack. The average house price dropped by another 1 per cent in June, twice as fast as in May.
The latest decline took losses in the first half of this year to 2.5 per cent — wiping about £4,250 off the value of the average home. Prices are now down by 3.2 per cent in the past year, equivalent to an average loss of £5,500 for every homeowner.
Estate agents reported prices falling in 83 per cent of England and Wales, compared with 53 per cent a month ago. It already takes just over ten weeks on average to sell a home, two weeks longer than in January, and sellers are typically being forced to accept about 91 per cent of their asking price.
The GfK NOP poll — based on people’s views on their own finances as well as wider economic conditions — found that the overall confidence index sank by five points this month to a reading of minus 34, on a par with the lowest level since the poll began in 1974. The record low of minus 35 was reached in March 1990, immediately before the start of the last recession.
With the stock market on course today to register its worst first half to the year for 14 years, families are only a little less pessimistic over their own finances. Their view of their present financial strength is at the lowest since April 1995, and their expectations of their financial state over the coming 12 months is at its worst since September 1995.
Willingness to make “big ticket” purchases has also fallen to a record low. Figures published last week showed that families suffered the steepest decline in disposable incomes for nearly a decade during the first three months of the year.
The proportion of income being saved has fallen to the lowest level since 1959.
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