Gary Duncan, Economics Editor, and Judith Heywood, Deputy Property Editor
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Families are more fearful about their financial future than during the depths of the last recession, as they struggle with soaring food and fuel costs.
The drop in confidence, highlighted in new monthly figures, threatens to exacerbate Britain’s economic woes as hard-pressed consumers curb their spending, further undermining economic growth. Last week’s revised figures found that the pace of growth halved to 0.3 per cent, the lowest level for three years.
The GfK NOP figures for June on consumer sentiment come as fresh evidence emerges that the housing slump is getting worse and now affects most of England and Wales.
A new survey from Lloyds TSB also shows that people are more worried about losing their job than at any point in the past three years, as employers feel the effects of the downturn and may have to lay off staff.
The monthly poll of consumer sentiment found that householders’ confidence about future economic prospects had sunk to its lowest level since 1982. Confidence in existing economic conditions dropped during June to levels not seen since late 1992, at the end of the last recession.
The rapid disappearance of the economic “feel-good factor” will deal a fresh blow to Gordon Brown as he marks the end of his first year at No 10 with his popularity falling alongside the economy’s prospects.
House-price falls are accelerating as potential buyers retreat from the market in expectation of cheaper property values in future. The number of homes changing hands last month fell to its lowest in 30 years, according to the property website Hometrack. The average house price dropped by another 1 per cent in June, twice as fast as in May.
The latest decline took losses in the first half of this year to 2.5 per cent — wiping about £4,250 off the value of the average home. Prices are now down by 3.2 per cent in the past year, equivalent to an average loss of £5,500 for every homeowner.
Estate agents reported prices falling in 83 per cent of England and Wales, compared with 53 per cent a month ago. It already takes just over ten weeks on average to sell a home, two weeks longer than in January, and sellers are typically being forced to accept about 91 per cent of their asking price.
The GfK NOP poll — based on people’s views on their own finances as well as wider economic conditions — found that the overall confidence index sank by five points this month to a reading of minus 34, on a par with the lowest level since the poll began in 1974. The record low of minus 35 was reached in March 1990, immediately before the start of the last recession.
With the stock market on course today to register its worst first half to the year for 14 years, families are only a little less pessimistic over their own finances. Their view of their present financial strength is at the lowest since April 1995, and their expectations of their financial state over the coming 12 months is at its worst since September 1995.
Willingness to make “big ticket” purchases has also fallen to a record low. Figures published last week showed that families suffered the steepest decline in disposable incomes for nearly a decade during the first three months of the year.
The proportion of income being saved has fallen to the lowest level since 1959.
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Why did the west not learn the harsh lessons of the 1970's?
There are already engines that run on water,we don't need oil.
Let us wake up and "give the bird" to the Arabs and the rest of the evil OPEC Cartel.
Solar,Wind,Waves,Natural gas are all waiting to become part of the new energy future
James C, Marbella, U.K
"Relative to 10 years ago, house prices have increased 100%." However if house prices are double, they only need to halve to be at the same price (relative) to 10 years ago...
Goldmember, Bristol, UK
Well summed up by Jim Willis. The party line is "buy now".If you don't have the newest Nintendo or Plasma you are a loser. Conspicuous consumption is killing us. No matter how battered our pocketbooks we still line up & say "please sir may I have some more". Another nasty whack in the head anyone?
Jason Pearson, Toronto, Canada
The banks are hoarding your savings instead of lending them out but with roaring inflation are those deposits evaporating in value? OK, so iPods and iPhones are coming down in price but food inflation is spectacular.
Ewan Lamont, Edinburgh, Scotland
N. Waters said " the Piper needs to be paid" but I don't think you can pin this on labour. In the US, EU & Canada we have the same problems with governments of ALL political stripes. The fact is we charged our lifestyles on credit & as you so eloquently put it the Piper needs to be paid
Jason Pearson, Toronto, Canada
Its the perfect storm : Petrol, credit, rising inflation, high debt, no savings (The proportion of income being saved has fallen to the lowest level since 1959), others competing for resources, low productivity, must have it now mentality. All striking at once, we are in for a very bad time indeed
Jason Pearson, Toronto, Canada
We are led to believe, that if we do not buy now when the price of housing is rising, that we will miss the boat and need to pay more if we wait. This panic buying is the cause of the housing crisis. The system encourages this state of mind. It is so sad a situation for many.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
srinu, the guilty party in this fiasco is of course the consumer. Nobody put a gun to our heads & said "You must buy that new ipod". We did this of our own volition. Buy now Pay later is the theme of society. Later of course does come & much sooner than you expect. Brother can you spare a billion?
Jason Pearson, Toronto, Canada
Oh dear, I've hopelessly exceeded my means to live a big brother bling bling lifestyle, and now my bank wants it all back and my flat was never worth what I paid for it. It's Gordon Brown's fault of course, he forced me to dine out every night.
Yeah right Srinu, now take your punishment like a man
John Buckeridge, Harrow, EU
i become poorer
lee kimy, london, u.k.
Piper needs to be paid for the past decade of NuLab entertainment...throw caution to the wind, and reap a whirlwind...so get on with it!
N. Waters, Mississauga, Canada
Nothing could be better for the UK - as distinct from this fantasy thing called the UK economy- than to put an end to the ludicrous habit of millions of people going out every day and throwing money into shop doorways for the endless conveyor belt of tat which they all display. It is a sickness!!!
eric campbell, harrogate , uk
Gordon Brown is guilty of creating and getting us hooked on to a commodity, which will be our Achillies heel. Ultra cheap, easy to get hold of credit, credit, credit CRUNCH!!!!
Now the good news, there has been 200% increase in letters from debt collection agencies, and most are returned to sender.
srinu, preston, uk
Old fashioned thrift and staying away from the malls is the jkey to economic recovery. Why blame Brown?
uday, pune, india
We are a vibrant and diverse society,that cures everything and being overpopulated is a bonus ensuring self sufficiency in energy and food.
What vision.
Stupid is that stupid does
Brains not education is what's important.We've sold most of what was good,borrowed and now wonder why there's no money
dave, northwood,
Rob, Eastbourne--ever heard of moral agency? Brown did not force people to overspend on their credit cards and store cards. My debts are a tenth of my savings; this is not difficult if one is not self-indulgent.
Dectora, London, UK
The virtuous circle of mutually supporting private borrowing, spending and earning which sustained the British economy - and Blair - during Brown's Chancellorship necessarily always carried with it the certainty of going into reverse and becoming a vicious circle.
Bob T, London, UK
Prepare for a 30s style DEPRESSION not a recession. The developing housing crash will make the 90s seem like a picnic. 1.44 trillion pounds of debt has kept the UK economy going, an economic illusion, trouble is what can keep it going now when the credit is turned off and the debt is called in?
chris, brighton,
No wonder the MPC's desperate not to increase the interest rate when its main remit, inflation is more than 50% above the government's target and stil rising...
cww, suffolk,
Labour do not believe in boom and bust. Just bust? What are they doing about their punative tax policy?
steve tea, manchester, cheshire
The UK economy would recover overnight if
**petrol prices start to level out
**wage demands become moderate.
**energy companies start trying to remember that they currently have customers who would dump them if there was a cheaper alternative .
It's easy isn't it?
William Grierson, Kimpton, UK
Europe and America are starting to pay for these last decades of wealth at the expenses of the entire planet.... Let's face it foks.... It can only turn nastier and nastier.... I agree with that guy who said that Bin Laden and the war in Iraq shoudn't be any longer our concerns.
Horace, Firence (Florence), Italy
Mr Tim:
It depends how much you need to use your car. I last filled up in April and the tank is still 1/3 full.
Get a job closer to home, or move closer to your work.
Or, if you can't do that now, do it in preparation for the next recession.
Mike, Harlow,
Those of us who will be OK MUST keep our eyes open for neighbours and the elderly who may be in trouble.Here is a real chance to restore social reponsibility.
Bagsus, Tisbury, UK
I totally agree with Tom from Birmingham. Prices are up but inflation is still relatively low. The media are fuelling ( no pun intended) financial panic which could drive the country in to recession. I am more concerned about the effect of continued alarmist reporting than rising fuel prices.
Jane Palmer, Reading, Berks
There is a possibility that all asset prices will fall - Houses, shops and offices, shares and all sorts of commodities. If you look at some of these current prices you realise that the price's exceed the costs of producing - IT'S A BUBBLE! It happens because of speculation and optimism - NOW GONE
David Nammory, Liverpool,
Derek Clifton. Unfortunately, if the downturn is as severe as is feared, then your financial security may have to take second place to physical security as social upheaval of an unprecedented scale takes place. We need to abandon ivory towers for communities.
David, Stanford le Hope, UK
wait till the tories get in, then watch the job losses mount just like last time.
stephen, Newcastle, England
And the more you, the Times, spreads the message of doom and gloom the worse it will get. The media seems to talk us into these depressions, fueled by stupid downbeat comments by those in Government. Best always be upbeat, albeit that might be putting a gloss on it.
Kevin, London, UK
We are alright Jack! With four good pensions stashed away and the profit from our large home, sold before the downturn, wisely invested and bringing in a good return, we are sitting pretty. We feel sorry for those in difficult circumstances but, with sound planning and the right advice, success!
Derek Clifton, Andover, Hampshire
As Paul wrote: Currency devaluation = commodity inflation.
Stagflation (or worse) for the world courtesy of the US Treasury and Fed's currency devaluation; achieved by offering 2% interest, and exchanging it, $ for $, for rubbish derivatives worth 50 cents in the dollar (maybe).
dhome, sydney, australia
But people need to rein in their spending. Our problem is that our 'prosperity' was just a sea of debt, with - as you say - people saving less than ever. So unless we all stop spending so much that we dont really have, we'll just make a bad problem worse.
julia, london,
The housing market is now a millstone around the neck of the country. The BOE should have been rasising rates back in 2005. Unfortunately they cut them and the BOE are still failing to raise interest becasue of the housing market. The longer the BOE waits the greater the pain in the end.
Chris, Chipping Norton,
"Financial disaster is just around the corner" We have had this coming on for years because no goverment set out the guidlines on lending money. As a nation we have been living above our means. Do I feel soory for us no, but I do feel sorry for our children. Think befpore you spend .
lisa, london,
I'm a little confused, Iraq-what was it about again? We have a presence there, ostensibly we're helping rebuild the country which is rich in gas/oil. So why no benefits?
A war which had a foundation built on sand, our soldiers are dying, and to what avail? Surely cheaper fuel as a minimum?
David, Chester, UK
"Worst growth for three years?" Thats growth for goodness sake; Not the overall size of the economy. Why not say : "Hurrah! The third most prosperous year in the history of the human race". It would take something close to Armegedon to reduce my wealth to what it was in 2005, let alone 26 years ago!
Eric skelton, Cardiff, Wales
Supply and Demand.
I thought we wanted to reduce the amount of fossil fuels we were using? Price goes up, usage goes down. This is a good thing. Cutting taxes on it will cause the opposite of the desired behaviour. People drive too much anyway.
Richard, London, UK
DAB makes a good point. The govt.could easily reduce tax and VAT on fuel which would automatically bring pump prices down except this govt cannot afford to make tax cuts as our dear PM did not keep any reserves for times like these. His 2 friends Prudence and Patience are gone. Tough times are ahead
Tony Campbell, Northampton, UK
DAB from Bergamo. Gov line is that the tax gain is offset by tax losses elsewhere. e.g. income & corporation tax as jobs and profits are lost. However it seems to me that if fuel tax was reduced then business costs would be lower and jobs & profits would rise. But of course Labour isn't for working
Wendy, Glasgow, UK
Oh come on! So you have a massive boom followed by a massive bust. Stop whinging and deal with it. The good news is that we are being made to cut down on fuel usage and green technologies suddenly are looking a lot cheaper. Enjoy the ride.
Andrew Piercy, London, UK
T. Andre, you cannot seriously be telling us that we are in a mess because we renewed Trident?
Tom Phillips, Liverpool,
There is something that bothers me.....Everyone complains about the price of crude, yes its more expensive than before....a lot more in fact......however no one ever mentions who takes most of the money out of the final price.....yes the government.....why dont they reduce the tax to help everyone?
DAB, Bergamo, Italy
let get one thing clear, its the central bankers that have caused this problem. We think we have inflation now, you wait until we are in a hyper-inflation depression by the end of 2010. I am just glad I am invested in gold, silver and commodity stocks, I suggest you guys do the same.
steve, Edgware, UK
but John, you need to understand that the last decade has been fake. We were always going to pay for the lack lending standards and cheap money and we will in waves. Hyper-inflation depression by end of 2010, mark my words.
steve, Edgware, UK
Welcome to the inevitable consequences of a fiat money system that only creates money as debt out of thin air, then charges you interest for the privilege.
On a finite planet, "growth" cannot go on forever. So when the music stops playing theres going to be a lot of people without chairs. (ie YOU!)
paul, rugeley, uk
Spare a thought for us here in India where inflation is running at 11%, the stock market index has dropped from 23000 to 13600 and the communists are threatening to bring the Government down. Its pretty grim given that there are so many poor people around at the best of times.
LAKSHMAN PARDHANANI, GOA, India
It's the British way to support the underdog but lets feel nothing for Brown, Blair and Labour. This is not a global mess but one totally of their own creation and incompetance. The best medicine is not time but to boot them out asap
Robert Marshall, London, UK
Ther is easy money for tax cuts. Switch from EU to EFTA, and we will keep billions, which can be used to raise tax thresholds. Google EFTA, and see powerpints on seminars
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
Is there really any city town or village in the UK that has posted falls as moderate as those cited in this article? If there are, the locals should be glad they dont live in the East Midlands where the fall in prices is at least double the quoted figures.
Mike, East Midlands,
so what a surprise, we have all been taxed so much that when there is a burp in the global economy there is no capacity for us simple hardworking families (of any class) to absorb it. So gordie who is the burp i mena burke now!!!
simon , London, England (not Britain)
cheer up Andre, we're still better off than we've generally ever been in the last few hundred thousand years or so.
john, Sandwich, uk
how much is it for the new nuclear weapons, over 70bn in total? there is a cost for playing world power, enjoy!
T.Andre, London,
Interesting all the Tory posters blame Gordon Brown for the Global Credit Crunch,but they like David Cameron can not come up with any answers on how to solve the problem.
William Rees, Truro, Cornwall
But...but....the government has just published its anniversary report and it's really optimistic! They talk of 'Excellence, Fairness and World-Class Services'. What's wrong with that then? I know it's a bit boring because they've said the same thing for eleven years........
john problem, winchester, uk
Brown relied on imports in the past to keep the so call idiosyncratic inflation figure down ; because domestic prices was above this figure -ie council tax nearly double during the last 11 years. Now import prices are rising substantially,especially with a weak pound.His prudence has been a sham.
A Walton, Leicester, England
"The Arab oil producers .....glug,glug, goes 'western civilzation' as we knew it." ...its their oil, and they take what the market is willing to pay (called market economy) Western Civilisation was also build on other people resources incl. the land of the native Americans
T.Andre, London,
Paul from Coventry takes a rather simplistic view on things. In truth of course a weak currency will relate to higher import prices but the movement in interest rates as a knee jerk reaction to concerns about the financial system are the only arrows in the BOE's sling.
robh, bromley, england
Tell you what . Let us put the UK up for auction on E bay. Might help !!
swisschris, New Malden, UK
We are all feeling financially squeezed and this is being compounded by rising energy bills and increases in the unfair Council Tax that does not take account of the ability to pay.
Add into the mix mortgage rates and food bills and there you have it "Financial disaster is just around the corner"
Stephen Holmes, Withington , UK
And people wonder why gold and silver should be legal tender and not PAPER? Welcome to the up and coming new feudalism, you're either extremely rich or poor, the middle class is the thing of the past.
James, Tampa, FL, USA
Not GB's fault?? The UK had a 10 year boom - did the then Chancellor save anything for a rainy day? ... No.
He just told us the days of boom & bust will not happen under Labour anymore.
Yes the bust is not GB's fault - but the UK's inability to deal with it is his fault.
Joe
Joe, Kiev, Ukraine
These cash fears are not confined to consumers. Many manufacturing businesses,particularly in the metals using sector where prices have doubled in 6 months,face severe cash flow problems. Corus, who control most the the UK supply, have announced yet a further 25% rise from tomorrow.
A.M. Williams, Stafford,
3.2% fall in asking prices + 5% fall in achieved price + 4% fall in the value of GBP (inflation) - real falls of over 12% already and this has only just begun. Fasten your seatbelts.
Matt, Sydney, Australia
Currency devaluation = commodity inflation.
All those who have begged for rate cuts should realise that these cuts have created this problem.
Paul, Coventry,
If you keep telling the public that things are getting really bad then it will probably come true.
Tom, Birmingham, UK
A 3.2% fall fall in house prices has to be taken in the context that they have risn by over 100% during the last 10 years.This will only be bad for people who took a 100% mortgage out last year.If you don't need to sell and can afford the mortgage you should be OK if you keep your job.
stephen hulton, eure, france
The Arab oil producers will make you say 'Uncle',and smile at you at the same time......glug,glug, goes 'western civilzation' as we knew it....The politicials !!! They have there 'butts' covered....as they go around in there 'taxpayers' cars/suv's...it's called the "good old boys' club....
Mr Tim, san marcos, US of A
if this carrys on for another year everyoe gonna be bust job losses are gonna in high thanks to tony and gordon brown
mike, birmigham,
Not Gordon Browns fault, it is the world enconomy entering a new phase in which the emerging powers are taking power. China, India e.t.c. which government could have kept them at bay??? My only worry is why aren't house prices falling faster, they've been going up by 15% a year, why not a 15% fall?
Paul , Chiang Mai, Thailand
It makes you wonder how much longer people in the Americas and Europe will be concerned over the awful situation in Iraq... if the price of oil continues to increase, will they still love for their neighbour that which they love for themselves?
Abdul Majeed, Bradford, United Kingdom
Gordon Brown certainly is a record breaker.
What was his catch phrase?
'no more boom and bust'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
rob, ashbourne, uk