Gary Duncan, Gráinne Gilmore and Rebecca O'Connor
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Further evidence that Britain's housing slump is gathering pace has been provided by figures from Halifax, which show that house prices are plunging at twice the rate of the property market's drastic downturn in the early Nineties.
House prices fell by a further 2.4 per cent last month, extending losses that have left them down by 6.6 per cent since January, wiping £13,000 off the value of the average home.
Prices have fallen twice as fast in the past five months as in the same period in 1992, during the most recent property crash, when they fell by only 3.3 per cent, based on Halifax figures. The decline in prices this year is the biggest five-month fall since records began in 1991. If the deterioration in house prices continues at its present pace, the value of a home will slump by more in six months this year than in the whole of 1992, when prices fell by a total of 7.2 per cent. Some economists forecast that prices could fall by up to 12 per cent this year, followed by further declines next year.
After the Bank of England took a hardline decision to keep rates on hold yesterday there were fears that it could raise interest rates later this year after the European Central Bank issued a surprise warning that surging inflation may force it to lift eurozone rates as early as next month. The emerging threat of higher base rates in the UK will add to the growing pressure on families struggling with the rising cost of living.
The threat that a brutal housing crash could be more severe if the Bank raised rates is certain to sound alarm bells at the Treasury.
Bradford & Bingley is expected to aggravate the pain today, when the troubled lender increases rates on all of its home-loan products, although it has not said by how much.
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With a great many more buyers than there are houses available to purchase, would somebody tell me why prices should drop? Surely it is a sellers market. The seller simply needs to wait until buyers have got their 10% deposit sorted and then do the deal? We had to for our first house, why not now?
Bernard, Solihull, UK
Houses in Guildford area were put on the market with ridiculously high, insane asking prices. They do not sell. They drop and drop the asking price, and still do not sell. Greedy sellers then withdraw from the market, they can't bare selling for less than a killing. Guildford prices go down, not up.
Derek, woking, surrey
A bit more realistic drop in property prices can only be good for the economy in the long run. First time buyers need more affordable housing. Before any one bites my head off, I know about repossessions, negative equities etc. But the lunacy of hiking prices for the last 4 or 5 years cannot cont.
Balwant Munglani, Northwood HA6 1ND, UK
Surrey an London houses are not going down Mary.. 6.5% up last 12 months..
Neal Mitch, London,
Houses with garden in Guilford area are still goig up and up this year... What is going on here?? I am not sure if I am doing the right thing holding back... will I miss out again
Mary, London,
Gary, Lon, in any market, it's not what you want - it's what the maket dictates. With cheap credit it was a seller's maket, now it's a buyers - either readjust to the market or sit it out for the next 5 years. Don't forget, you get the benefit when you buy your next property
Melanie, London,
If you go to the Nationwide House Price Index you will see that the total absolute house price falls in 1992-1996, peak to trough, were 20%. Obviously we are in the middle of another house price drop but let's not get carried away with these 40%, 50%, 70% drop estimates..
Adrian, Bristol, UK
Danny - So you think the media are scare mongering? I call it reporting! I found continuous reports of rising house prices much scarier than this! Anyway, you shouldn't be scared, the papers are only giving you a very small part of the story - you should be really scared!
Sleep tight!
Wayne, portsmouth,
I am in same situation as steve from leeds. some nice saving. Just go to be patient.
The local estate agents has laid of 3 people and humberts have closed malvern office here
paul, worcester, worcestershire
To all those deluded optimists who swore that things were different this time, you were right - they are a lot lot WORSE!
Clive, Chichester, UK
''The question is, how cheeky''
Minus 30-50% cheeky; that's what the medium term drops are likely to be.
michael clarke, Windsor, England
I wonder if the people who have left comments encouraging offers of 30% to 70% below asking prices would themselves find it acceptable to receive such offers if they were the ones trying to sell a property in the current market. Values haven't fallen by that much.
Gary, London, U.K.
By the way, I wonder if the R.H. David Smith reads these other articles in the times?. I bet him last summer that within 3 years we would have a HPC then a following recession.
Mmmmm Methinks themanis toast. At last as far as Rupert is concerned!
Austin Tassletine, South West, UK
how cheeky steve? Start 30% lower with a view to get it at 20% less!! on the one hand i was glad that my home, which i purchased for £70,000 ten years ago has nearly trebled, but on the other, i would welcome a drop of 30% so hat my children will be able to get on the property ladder.
simon, lytham, uk
Yes if looking for a flat or new build properties wait bit more, prices will come down 10% this year. If you are planing to buy a victorian or caracter house in London or any town with good train connection to London be careful not to wait long. Price in places like Surey are still going up 4.5%
Denis Lewis, Reigate,
May I request Halifax, Nationwide.... to do a separate survey for properties less than £1m. I am not surprised if the fall comes out more than 10%. And it is the beginning.
Somna, Croydon,
We sold our house a few weeks ago and were lucky enough to get +98% of the asking price based on a January valuation. We're going to rent, probably for at least a year. Interest on the sale proceeds will cover much of the rent. We'll wait and hope for a good purchase after prices have come down.
James B , London,
I'm a seller, I am willing to accept 10% less than last years high. So I have factored that into the asking price. I have refused offers of 10% below that price because it's 21% less than peak - I can make more by remortgaging and letting. If you're a sensible buyer/seller, it will work out.
Matt, London,
Steve in Leeds,
There is no such thing as too cheeky. I'd say start off 70% below purchase price and tell them its a cash sale with no mortgage approval required.
Mart, London, UK
Wait a year and your 'cheeky' offer, if accepted, will seem a lot less cheeky. Today's bargain price is tomorrow's market price and the rate prices are falling now, you'd be better off waiting...
20% falls by Christmas are a distinct possibility, IMHO.
cp, LONDON, UK
I would say at least 20% off the current asking prices - and look for 30% off if possible.
By the way, I wonder if the R.H. David Smith reads these other articles in the times?. I bet him last summer that within 3 years we would have a HPC then a following recession.
Good luck house hunting!
Matt, Oxford, UK
I wish estate agents like Danny would stop talking Edinburgh property prices up! Edinburgh is dropping fast like everywhere else. There are hundreds of properties at a fixed price and dropping to lower fixed prices every day. I'll step in and buy one, soon....
Martin Johnstone, Edinburgh,
Steve,
Be patient - it's going to get worse...the inflation in house prices will need a while to work itself out!
Hilary, Epsom, UK
Steve, I would suggest offers circa -40% lower than asking price.
fergus, LOndon, LOndon
Wait a while (Steve, Leeds)....keep saving and paying the lower rent - if you have a professional salary, you deserve to climb on the ladder at the same rung as previous generations. You'll get a lot more for your money in a couple of years. Don't be left with the parcel....the music has stopped.
Hu Ru, Hove,
Haha, like it Steve. I am in a similar position, and let me just say I will be "bargaining aggresively," but of course with a big smile :)
Jamie, Surrey,
I've been reluctant to move up the ladder since buying (getting a mortgage for!) my first house, a small one bedroom cottage on the outskirst of London, back in 2002. I manage international fixed income portfolios so look closely at the economy. Hold off. This is the start. If you must, -30%.
Steven, London, UK
House prices have risen between 200 and 300% in the 11 years. This is substantially above wage inflation for the same period, so why is a drop of 12% a year a major crisis. Did people expect house prices to rise above inflation indefinitely?
Eamonn, Leics., UK
Prices need to and are going to fall - most agree on this.
If so, the faster the better, surely?
Mike, Tauranga, New Zealand
Focus on older people - who bought for less years ago. We are buying a property for almost £65000 less than the asking price because the people are retired and need to move urgently into retirement home. Very cheeky you may think - but hey its a dog eat world at the moment.
Andy, Hereford, England
Steve, hold on to your money - your deposit may be more like 50% in a year or two.
Paul, London,
But, but, but the 'experts' said it is different this time. Have they really been conning us or do they not have a clue?
anthony, london, england
I'm in the same position as Steve however this is the beginning of price falls. Prices will drop a further 20% in the next 2 years but taking inflation into account then in real terms we are looking at a drop of 50% from peak to trough. Besides, interest rates will be lower in a couple of years.
Paul, harrow,
Steve, Leeds - go in at a 30% discount. As a first time buyer with a 30% deposit saved and a professional salary also, that's what I'm planning on doing - good luck!
RGC, Bristol, England
I think the media in general should stop these scare-mongering tactics and specify that not all house prices in Britain are the same, I stay in Edinburgh and we have been seeing a slight decline in property prices, with property taking longer to sell,but all houses prices will not affected.
Danny Harvie, Edinburgh, Scotland
Steve,
I think you can afford to be as cheeky, if not down right insulting with your offers, as you choose to be. Minus 30%? Minus 40%?
What have you got to lose? After all, it isn't a rising market with the threat of that dream house slipping out of reach. Quite the contrary in fact.
Quoth, Bristol, England
Steve
I am an estate agent and cheeky offers are getting accepted in this market! Nothing frightens like fear - and that makes the right sellers easy pickings for a savvy buyer. I reckon our prices are already down by 10% - & that is good news for buyers.
Mark Savill, Chard,
What goes up must come down.
Reducing interest rate is not the solution.
Finding an alternate energy will stop the only cartel OPEC to hike their price of oil.
Consumers are equally responsible for excess of consumption of oil too.
Anil, Lagos, Nigeria
Hmmm, i'm a first time buyer with a good deposit (~30%) and a professional salary. Soon it will be time to start testing the water with some cheeky offers. The question is, how cheeky?
Steve, Leeds,