Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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The Bank of England today spurned pleas for a new cut in interest rates to shore up the faltering economy and slumping housing market and held them at 5 per cent.
The harsh noon verdict from the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) dealt a fresh blow to hard-pressed households and businesses, fearful of rapidly worsening economic prospects and struggling with mounting financial strains.
Its decision came as a further blow to homeowners after Halifax this morning reported that house prices fell by 2.4 per cent or £4,000 in May to £184,111.
It was the second biggest monthly fall on record, after prices slipped by 2.5 per cent in March.
Analysts said the new figures were alarming. House prices have fallen by 6.6 per cent in the first five months of this year, more than the total decline in prices during the whole of 1992.
The housing market has been hit hard by a lack of mortgages vailable to new buyers. Recent figures from the Bank of England show that loans approved for house purchases has slumped to a record low.
The Bank’s tough decision to keep rates pegged for a second month in a row came as it stuck to its recent hard line that it must prioritise its battle to tame rising inflation, stoked by soaring food and fuel prices.
The MPC had been widely expected by the City to rebuff the growing clamour for a fresh cut in official base rates after it forecast last month that headline consumer price inflation will rise over the summer to almost 4 per cent, as food and energy costs continue their upward charge.
The Bank gave warning that inflation would take two years to fall back to its 2 per cent target, even if base rates were pegged at present levels.
Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, emphasised the Bank’s predicament with hawkish warnings that he is likely to have to write a series of letters to the Chancellor, explaining why inflation has risen more than 1 percentage point above target and stayed stubbornly high.
After inflation jumped to 3 per cent in April, economists think Mr King will have to write the first of these explanatory letters as soon as this month, when May inflation figures are released.
Inflationary pressures are being inflamed by a sharp fall in the pound of more than 10 per cent over the past year, which is driving up Britain’s import bills, and as businesses try to deal with the squeeze on their profits from rising costs by increasing prices at record rates.
The Bank’s verdict will spark anguish among households struggling with steep rises in the cost of living, would-be homebuyers facing dearer mortgage rates, and homeowners coming off cheap, fixed-rate loan deals, who are facing much higher monthly repayment costs, as well as anxious businesses. In spite of past base rate cuts, loan rates have continued to rise as high street banks react to a shortage of funding triggered by the global credit crunch
The MPC’s decision today came despite the issue of new warnings over a fast deteriorating outlook and mounting signs that the economy is sliding into the grip of a severe downturn.
Yesterday the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said that Britain faces a grim two-year stretch of weak economic growth. The think-tank said that it expected house prices to drop by 10 per cent by the end of next year, unemployment to creep upwards, and consumer spending growth to stall.
In the latest challenge to Alistair Darling’s prediction that the economy will rebound strongly next year from only a modest slowdown in coming months, the OECD forecast that growth in 2009 will be even weaker than this year, at just 1.4 per cent. That compares with the Chancellor’s bet that growth will bounce back to rise by between 2.25 and 2.75 per cent next year, from his expected minimum of 1.75 per cent for this year.
Fears that the economy is rapidly losing steam were reinforced yesterday by a key survey of the services industries, which suggested that growth in the economy’s dominant sector stalled last month for the first time in more than five years, with services businesses cutting jobs at the fastest pace for more than a decade.
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The 'servere' recession which is likely to happen in 2009 could have been avoided if the BOE had increased rates in 2005.The ECB are likely to increase rates next month which effectively rules out any further cuts in UK base rates.My guess is a 0.25% in August.
stephen hulton, eure, france
I'm a householder, it's no blow to me, I'm patiently waiting for the three recent base rate cuts to be reversed.
Paul, Coventry,
There is mileage in the opinion that the media may cause a 'herding effect' on the economy (or reducing output by talking about falling output) or even causing panic by reporting the facts. But what is the alternative? Restrictions? You have to weigh up the merits of information versus volatility.
Paul Middleditch, Coulsdon, UK
Rates must remain as they are otherwise inflation will get out of hand.....if anything they could be slightly increased
C Kroustis, London, UK
I sometimes wonder how people like Martin, Brentwood can be so narrow-minded.
Didn't the media also have a massive impact on things when prices were rising with countless articles about how everyone can become rich through property?
Alex, Salisbury, UK
Think tank or Thick tank? House prices to fall by 10% by next year? They have already fallen 7% this year and were only half way through it. By end of next year full correction of falls 25% to 30% will have taken place.
des, birmingham, uk
I sometimes wonder how much our wonderful media has to do with the depth of the current crisis and the prevailing mood of pessimism. Look at this piece harsh noon verdict, fresh blow, fearful, struggling, strains how many more negative words can be fitted into one short paragraph?
Martin, Brentwood, UK
If you were around in the early 90's paying 15% interest rates then the debate over reducing a rate from 5% which the banks in anycase will not pass on, leaves you wholly underwhelmed
mark connelly, surbiton, surrey
Despite what this article seems to imply - the consequences of letting inflation get out of control are far worse in the long run than a recession - we don't want a return to the 70s in this regard
Dan, Winchester, UK
Raising interest rates has no effect on inflation; all it does is allow banks to take money out the economy - which they are pretty good at. If Gordon and Darling are serious about reducing spending power, they should cut benefits and freeze public sector pay - but no stomach for such strong action.
Rob, Bradford,
"A harsh noon verdict", surely the only option to prevent long-term inflation... has the Times Economics Editor turned Keynesian? :P
Scott, Oxford,
It was not a harsh verdict; it was a sensible one.
As one might expect, the pleas for cuts are coming from vested interests.
It can also be argued very convincingly, that when the rate set is based on hopelessly understated inflation, the Bank should have gone a step further and raised rates.
nic, paphos, cyprus
The BoE will have to raise rates if there are any wage pressures from the unions. They cannot afford to let the pound slide anymore & therefore exacerbate inflation. It's now up to the Government to slash public spending & ease the tax burden otherwise we face severe social unrest .
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
The right decision. House prices need to come down a lot further yet and I hope they do, so wiping the smile of all those that thought they could obscenely profiteer and get away with it. It's about time that houses were seen as homes and not as investment vehicles.
Nigel, Lincoln,
Well done for resisting the pressure to cut. Inflation needs controlled, not house prices.
SS, Edinburgh,
Go on then Mervyn, if infaltion is such a bogey man, put interest rates up. Even those people with thousands of £ stashed away will not like the inevitable recession. So Mr Bank of England grow a set and bring it on.
james mclean, edinburgh, scotland
Now I'm no ecomomist but would record fuel prices have something to do with the rise in inflation. Apparently our petrol and diesel prices are amongst the cheapest in europe before tax, so could it be that it's the level of taxation driving up inflation?
DC, Pontefract, Yorks
With the factors given (rising cost of fuel,energy, food and the fall in the value of the pound etc.), relying on the interest rate will have little impact.
With an ineffectual interest rate mechanism this govt has little else to use to regain control of the economy, other than taxation that is!
C. Hale, Worcester,
Why can't the bank see that rates need to come down and fast. Why is their inflation targeting remit so low in comparison to other countries?
The BoE encouarged us by lowering interest rates. alot of us then spent it on the high st helping the UK economy.
Now is payback time!
Paul, coventry, uk
The bank did the right thing. House prices need to come down to rational levels! It may be painful for the moment. The government had promised an end to 'bust and boom', but instead it encouraged easy money, holding the future to ransom. It will be even more painful if inflation gets out of hand.
Dick, Durham, UK
Mervyn King warned of the dangers of borrowing excessive amounts in 2004. Neither the government nor the banks took any notice. Now we are stuck with the consequences of irresponsible state and private borrowing. To lower interest rates now would be utterly irresponsible.
Steve, London,