Gary Duncan
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The retreat by consumers from the high street slowed slightly from April, despite prices rising at the fastest pace for 16 years, a key CBI survey found today.
Sales fell in May for the second consecutive month but the fall was less sharp than expected. They are forecast to rise next month.
The figures spell the latest blow to fast-fading hopes for any further cuts in interest rates over the summer.
The survey’s indications of a modest revival in sales since April, coupled with the latest evidence that retailers are still attempting to drive up prices, immediately reinforced the City’s expectations that interest rates will stay on hold for some time.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets to set rates next week and is likely to be alarmed by the latest signs of mounting price pressures from the high street, which come as it expects headline inflation to reach new highs over the summer months.
The CBI’s survey reported that 56 per cent more retailers said that they had raised prices this month than said they had cut them - the highest such proportion since May 1992. A net 52 per cent of retailers said that they are also planning to raise prices again in June.
The price pressures come as retailers battle to shore up their margins in the face of soaring costs for energy and stock, the prices of which are being driving up by steep gains in raw material costs as well as rising import bills, triggered by a sharp decline in the pound in recent months.
The increased competition for trade, sparked by consumers’ growing reluctance to spend amid worsening economic conditions, is yet to do much to cap these inflationary trends, the survey suggested.
The CBI’s finding that sales revived a little last month will add to the MPC’s uncertainty over the state of high-street trading. Despite gloomy survey findings from the CBI and the British Retail Consortium in recent months, official retail sales data have pointed to more buoyant sales, although the Bank has said that it is partly discounting these.
Today’s headline CBI gauges of sales this month showed that only 28 per cent of retailers said that sales had risen compared with a year earlier, while 42 per cent said that they fell. The net balance of minus 14 per cent reporting declining sales at the tills marked a pick-up from the balance of minus 26 per cent last month.
Sales for food retailers, including the leading supermarkets, were strong, while sales of clothing stabilised after a poor April that was blamed on the weather, the CBI said.
A key area of weak trading was for big-ticket items, such as furniture and electrical goods, which are closely linked to housing market conditions. As evidence piled up that house prices are tumbling, with the Nationwide Building Society reporting today that prices plunged by 2.5 per cent this month, sales of these products are being hit hard, the CBI found. Sales of furniture and carpets were especially weak, with a net 84 per cent of retailers reporting that these are falling compared with a year ago.
Ian McCafferty, the CBI’s chief economic adviser, said that, while it was encouraging that retailers expected some recovery in sales in June, the outlook remained gloomy overall and conditions were set to remain tough.
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Time for a rate hike to strengthen Sterling again.
Paul, Coventry,
"The retreat of customers from the high street"........how much of this is due to ever increasing online shopping?
Chris, Birmingham,
Mervyn King has stated that he is expecting to write several letters to the Chancellor this year as a result of the 3% CPI figure being exceeded. In other words the BoE is no longer trying to control inflation but is taking on world market issues over which it has no influence.
john, milton keynes,
Inflation will destroy whatever slim hope many people have for a half-decent pension (a recession is just a short term problem by comparison that benefits the frugal - both corporations and consumers).
The BoE must stand firm and raise rates if necessary (as urged by the CEO of HSBC this week).
Huw Sayer, Norwich, England
High interest rates are no more a cure for inflation than bloodletting was for fever. Interest is a cost like any other and must be reflected in prices. See J M Keynes, Treatise on Money, Vol Two, page 198. Keynes kept Bank Rate at 2% during war. Inflation was 1.8%.
Geoff Gardiner, Swindon,
The BoE sent out a clear message in Aug 2005: Interest rates will always be cut to support continued house price inflation...keep buying property, we will never let prices drop!
2005 could have been the soft landing we hoped for. However, nu-labour and their BoE cronies but an end to that!
A Harris, Kettering, UK
The 'independent' BoE's disastrous Sterling devaluation policy is hurting everyone in the country, except maybe the super-rich who are immune to food and fuel price inflation. The base rate will now need to go higher than it otherwise would have done had the BoE not started its rate-cutting folly.
Paul, Coventry,
Rates should have been increased in 2005 when the consumer debt mountain reached £1 trillion.What did the BOE do on August 2005?They cut them and repeated this mistake in December 2007.Nobody can honestly say that they need to be cut again.They need to rise next week by at least 0.5%,possibly 0.75%.
stephen hulton, eure, france
BoE needs to raise IRs to support the Pound and make imported products cheaper again. Ignore the property cheerleaders as they've had 300% gains over the last decade Those greedy, greed monkeys should've put away some cash for a rainy day - or not let house prices soar away in first place.
Rob, Honiton, UK
Sweet lord above, does everyone not realise by now that this is the reality check that will bring most people who live to spend back from the edge of insanity.
For years we have all been guilty of throwing out large vast amounts of food which was bought but never used, while poorer nations starved.
william thomson, lincoln, u k
HI Sam, Don't forget the Bank sometimes does things it does'nt want to, but on interest rates it does do what it wants.
Mike, Leeds
M D Hargreaves, LEEDS, West Yorkshire
Sterling crisis here we come! The BoE need to follow the ECB and confirm a strong stance against inflation. In a global market the banks are not taking notice of bank rate as they can lend their (pardon our) money in stronger currency areas with a real rate of return.
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
If the BoE cuts rates next week, then we know that GB is in control of the bank's decisions, and we're all doomed, I tell yer, doomed.
The rates have to increase, and makes no odds to the mortgage payers, as the mortgage rates are off on tangents unlinked to the base rate.
Np, Cornwall, UK
Don't be silly.
Inflation is only 3%.
Yeah, right. And I am brother to a man whose son is Netherlandic.
W Smith, Manchester,
Surely the first sentence is back-to-front and I'm not sure why the BoE is alarmed, it's been the one printing all that extra money!
Sam, London,
hmmm.... something else that's the same as the early 1990's?
There appears to be a pattern developing here that even the most myopic disbeliever in a house price crash may be able to detect!
Alex, Salisbury, UK