Grainne Gilmore
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
The price of goods leaving British factories rose at a record rate in April as the cost of raw materials soared, official figures show today, and denting hopes of a rate cut next month.
Output prices rose by 1.4 per cent during April, pushing the annual rate up to 7.5 per cent, the highest level ever recorded since the figures were first compiled by the Office of National Statistics in 1986.
The cost of raw materials also rose by a record level, increasing by 2.6 per cent month on month and 23.3 per cent year on year.
Core output price inflation, which excludes food, drink, tobacco and petrol, rose by 1 per cent in April, pushing the annual rate to 4.6 per cent, up from 3.4 per cent in March, and suggesting that more expensive energy and food are not solely to blame for the jump in prices.
Paul Dales at Capital Economics said that while the increases in producer prices may not filter though to consumers, with retailers absorbing the blow to their margins. The rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be on high alert for such a possibility, which in turn will keep them unwilling to lower interest rates.
He said: "We think that the consumer slowdown will mean that retailers will be forced to absorb the bulk of these cost increases in their margins. Nonetheless, this data will maintain the MPC’s reluctance to cut interest rates any faster."
Howard Archer, of Global Insight, the economic consultancy said: "The April producer price data are truly horrible and very worrying indeed for the Bank of England. [This] raises serious questions as to whether the bank will be willing to cut interest rates from 5.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent as soon as June despite current signs that the economic downturn may be deepening and widening. "
The Consumer Price Inflation figure is due tomorrow and predicted to have risen to an annual rate of 2.6 per cent in April from 2.5 per cent in March.
The inflation headache shown in the producer prices figures was further aggravated by another steep rise in Britain's import bills, fuelled by recent steep falls in the pound.
Separate trade figures today showed that import prices for goods from abroad jumped by 1.9 per cent in March, to stand 10.3 per cent up on a year earlier. Import prices for goods excluding oil and erratic items were up by 5.8 per cent year on year over the first quarter - the biggest quarterly gain since 1995.
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Interest rate manipulation is a short term fix. In a global economy a resource rich country can maintain the standard of living of its citizens.
Now that the oil has all but gone the UK isnt resource rich, we will have to add value to our citizens, education and infrastructure investment.
Steve, reading,
More damaging consequences of currency devaluation. Those who think that keeping Sterling low benefits manufacturing should think again.
To David in Perth, reducing interest rates devalues everyone's earnings so that hardly makes things 'easier' for consumers, quite the contrary in fact.
Paul, Coventry,
I own a plumbers merchants and I`m seeing increases of materials every day. One manufacturer of radiators has just announced a 19% increase on cost price. I bet that doesn`t figure in the inflation figures.
Ian, london,
Hate to say it but things are bad, very bad - I will be living on the streets soon and I'm sure more people are in a similar situation...
I'm not in debt but can find an IT job and at 31 I will be on the streets as I cant pay my rent this month - things need to change there will be riots soon!
Mark, London, England, UK
The inflation record says the MPC have consistently erred on the low-side with interest rates since around 2005. Surely, it's time to swop a dove for a hawk. Preferably dropping the serially incorrect D Blanchflower. Unfortunately, I suspect the Govt has gone soft on inflation and won't.
Simon, Basingstoke,
and how can BofE keep on saying that inflation is only 3%?
Alex, London,
The MPC have failed all of us. Trying to disguise falls in asset prices (that is house prices) using inflation is like robbing the whole street to pay Paul.
Interest rates should be higher to reward savers and discourage the debt junkies falling deeper into the mire.
John, Reigate,
Tinkering with interest rates is not gaoing to have any effect on these rises, as they are caused by global conditions beyond the control of the BofE. Reducing interest rates might make it slightly easier for consumers to manage the extra burden.
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland