Britain has not hit the buffers yet. Yesterday's GDP figures confirm that the economy entered 2008 not with a loud crash, but instead with only a sharp squeal of brakes.

To the extent that they can be trusted, these weak but far from catastrophic data offer some useful correctives to the more excessive gloom of economic Cassandras.

Growth in national output may have slowed to a three-year low, but it has not plunged off a cliff, and the figures contained at least a few glimmers of hope: manufacturing was one bright spot. Yet there are plenty of reasons to remain braced for further trouble ahead.

The numbers contain quite a few oddities that do not feel quite right. The reported strength of the retail sector may have been mis-stated and is certainly at odds with much evidence that the high street is having a rougher time than the official data yet show. These figures may well be prone to a downgrade.

While there are also telltale signs of the toll from the credit crunch in the weak showing by the business services sector, the statisticians oddly claim that financial services did relatively well. This, too, appears a questionable assertion.

Whatever the accuracy of the numbers, however, it is clear that the downturn now taking hold in the economy is only starting to be felt.

The Bank of England's lifeline to the banking system this week may or may not remedy the mortgage drought, but the squeeze from the credit crunch looks certain to drag growth yet lower this year, regardless.

The slide in house prices also appears to be gathering momentum and seems destined to sap at least some of the strength from consumer demand, despite the Bank's doubts over this.

The first quarter has turned out not be the beginning of the end for the economy, as some might have feared. Yet it may not even mark the end of the beginning of the present downturn.

Explore Economics

• Autumn Budget 2007

• Budget 2008

• World Economic Forum

• The Times MPC

Times Recommends

• Darling under pressure on record public debt
• Mortgage drought deepens on 32% lending fall
• Oil prices firm after 10% drop to below $130