Angela Jameson
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
Minutes from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting this month revealed a three-way split at the top of the bank for the first time since May 2006, as two members voted to keep the interest rate unchanged.
Six members voted in favour of a quarter-point cut, including Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank, arguing that a move would reduce the risk of the economy slowing sharply, while three voted against.
David Blanchflower, always the most doveish member of the committee, stood alone for a 50-basis-point cut to 4.75 per cent.
Tim Besley and Andrew Sentance, the arch hawks, wanted to keep rates steady at 5.25 per cent.
Borrowing costs were reduced by a quarter-point from 5.25 per cent to 5 per cent.
The pound rose after the news that the policymakers were more divided than expected, as analysts said that the chances of a series of rapid rate cuts was now significantly lower.
Most economists had expected an unanimous verdict in favour of cutting, but the minutes of the committee revealed the confusion surrounding the domestic environment and the risks to inflation.
Rachel Lomax, the Deputy Governor, Sir John Gieve, Kate Barker, Charles Bean and Paul Tucker all voted in favour of a quarter-point rate cut.
David Kern, economic adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce, welcomed evidence that most of the MPC members understood the seriousness of the situation in the UK credit markets.
He said: "The minutes acknowledge the further deterioration in the outlook for the supply of credit, whilst the worrying messages in the latest credit condition survey may have damaging effects on business.
"It is very important to ensure that the problems in the mortgage market do not damage the business sector. We still urge the MPC to cut rates to 4.75 per cent in May, to counter these dangers."
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist for Global Insight, said: "Overall, the minutes highlight the MPC's ongoing very difficult position as it faces serious downside risks to the growth outlook but also current elevated inflation pressures."
Mr Archer said: "The committee is currently particularly concerned that current elevated inflation levels — primarily resulting from higher utility and food prices, as well as a markedly weaker pound — could lift inflation expectations and thereby have significant second-round effects through affecting the behaviour of price and wage setters."
Global Insight is forecasting the next 25-basis-point cut, to 4.75 per cent, to happen in June, but said that it would not rule out a May cut at this stage.
Ross Walker, af Royal Bank of Scotland, said that the split vote was significant because the consensus appeared to be breaking down.
Of the three members who voted against a quarter-point cut, Mr Besley and Mr Sentance conceded that borrowing costs needed to come down at a measured pace but said that recent economic news did not justify a move in April.
Mr Blanchflower, who alone argued for a 50-basis-point cut, was worried by survey evidence that he believed suggested Britain could suffer a sharp US-style slowdown.
Some of the six who voted in favour thought that downside risks to inflation had increased but others said that given the increase in prospective near-term inflation, the issue was less clear-cut.
“A reduction in Bank rate now would also reduce the 'tail' risk of an unexpectedly sharp slowdown in demand later in the year, which if it materialised might then require a more vigorous policy response in order to hit the inflation target further out,” the majority of MPC members thought.
Members also noted that the housing market was weakening but said that some fall in the ratio of house prices to earnings was probably warranted.
However, they added that it was "still unclear how far these housing market developments would amplify the expected slowdown in consumption growth."
There was also concern that soaring energy prices were pushing up inflation in the near term.
Enjoy screenings of all the classic films you love, plus take advantage of two-for-one tickets
We explore leisure activities that are safe and suitable for all of the family
Times Online's new TV show helps you make the right decisions for your pet
See the best entries in this year's competition
Your brain is capable of more than you might think...
An interactive preview of the brand new For Your Eyes Only exhibition
The latest travel news plus the best hotels and gadgets for business travellers

Love Sudoku? Play our brand new interactive game: with added functionality and daily prizes

Are you irritable when you return from work? Drained of emotion? You could be suffering from boreout
Prepare for some shock and awe, petrol lovers. Despite the greens trying to wipe it out, the car is about to offer us the most exciting year ever
We've trawled the brochures and websites to find this summer’s best holidays for every taste and budget

Overseas contacts and local business information

Find a course, arrange a game and save money
2002/02
£59,995
The Midlands
2008/08
£169,950
Scotland
2007/57
£35,000
South East England
Great car insurance deals online
Competitive
CyDen
London
To £28k
Barclaycard
Various (outside London)
£
£40,000 - £50,000 + benefits
Lloyds Pharmacy
Coventry
To £38k
Barclaycard
Northampton/Liverpool
2 Bathrooms, Balcony and Garden
£359,950
Beautiful Gardens w/ stunning Thames Views
Apts From £249,950
Mortgages, bank acc & money transfers to help you buy abroad
Explore mystical Jordan
From £1030 for 7nts 4*
to USA's Most Cosmopolitan City; San Francisco!
£POA
Book Now for Winter 08/09 and Get 10% off!
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Search globrix.com to buy or rent UK property.
© Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Incompetent fools @ the BoE.
As a former PW consultant sitting on a BoE committee, I cannot understand their recruitment policies.
Both BoE & the European Central Bank should align rates with the USA - otherwise, as always, US recovery is faster and less damaging than UK's recessions.
Richard, Bucharest, Romania
A reduction in interest rates was warranted to help reduce the problems associated with inter bank lending ( and high LIBOR rates- a fundamental problem at this time).Until this problem is solved -retail interest rates will remain high irrespective of base rate cuts.BOE have little to worry re infla
Paul Watson, Devizes, England
The basic question to answer is are interest rates set to manage the housing market and to keep interest rates artificially low or are they set to manage inflation for the whole economy. Given the problems that we are now experiencing because interest rates were set artificially low the answer is -
James, NI, UK
With Sterling down to 1.24 Euros and food and fuel inflation going through the roof, lowering rates further will make everyone poorer, except the banks. Agree with Bob in Stevenage, rate rises are needed now more than ever.
Paul, Coventry,
UK house prices is the economic bubble of this decade. A sharp correction in house prices is not just expected it is also warranted!
Sadly, the MPC seems willing to sacrifice the cost of living, the pound, and the economic outlook to prevent long overdue correction in house prices.
hans, twickenham, uk
The only correct decision was to put up the rates. Once again the house prices are mentioned in the same breath. If the MPC considers that house prices should be taken into consideration, then they should have voted overwhelmingly four years ago for an increase in the interest rates.
Bob Travels, Stevenage,