THE US economy is about to plunge in to recession, if it’s not already there, according to a survey of top financial bosses. The poll put the probability of recession in the next 12 months at 88%. One in three put it at 100% and several believe the US is already in a recession.

The responses came from executives whose firms are members of the Financial Services Forum, which represents 20 large financial companies including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Fidelity Investments.

The survey is conducted twice a year showed a marked downturn in sentiment from the last survey, conducted in October. The executives were more pessimistic about growth both in the US and globally blaming the turmoil in the credit and housing market.

Last week top Wall Street banks Merrill Lynch and Citigroup announced further huge losses and thousands of redundancies in the aftermath of the credit crisis. Some bankers had hoped this was the bottom of the market but the executives said the credit market problems still had some way to go.

The executives were less pessimistic about international growth. Asked to rate on a scale of 1 to 5 what countries will be driving global growth this year, China came first with a score of 4.75, followed by India at 4.06. The US dropped from No. 3 in the October survey to No. 10 in the current survey with a reading of 3.06.

But those polled feared protectionism was on the rise alongside the growth in international markets. “As the US economy slows, trade and economic openness are more important than ever,” said forum president Rob Nichols.

“With exports accounting for 40 percent of US economic growth last year, trade is essential to strengthening the US economy.”

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