David Smith, Economics Editor
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The Bank of England’s package to restore liquidity and confidence to the money markets could provide the economy with a significant boost and head off part of the widely expected economic downturn, analysts say.
While details of the package were still being hammered out this weekend, the broad shape is believed to be a £50 billion swap arrangement in which the Bank will take mortgage-backed securities onto its books in return for gilt-edged securities.
The arrangement is intended to run for just over a year, by which time the authorities believe a degree of normality will have returned to credit and money markets, particularly the market in mortgage-backed securities.
While officials refused to speculate on the arrangement ahead of this week’s announcement, sources close to the discussions said it would involve the the Bank imposing a “hair-cut” on the securities it takes onto its books – valuing them at a discount.
Banks taking part would have the flexibility to opt out of the swap if market conditions improved, though the Bank would also have the right to call in additional collateral should conditions in the housing market, for example, deteriorate sharply.
The package has been master-minded by Mervyn King, the Bank governor, in consultation with chancellor Alistair Darling and senior Treasury officials – who will have to sign off the arrangement and order the additional issuance of gilt-edged securities.
Along with King, deputy governor Sir John Gieve and head of markets Paul Tucker have been most closely involved at the Bank. The senior Treasury officials advising Darling and Gordon Brown have been Dave Ramsden, head of its macroeconomics division, and Tom Scholar, who recently returned to the Treasury after a brief spell as Brown’s chief of staff at 10 Downing Street, and who heads the Treasury’s financial-services arm.
While it is recognised that this week’s package is only one element in containing the effects of the credit crunch, there is optimism at the Treasury this weekend that Royal Bank of Scotland’s proposed rights issue was greeted enthusiastically by the markets. The hope is the package maintains the improvement in sentiment.
“It is not the solution but it is part of the solution,” said one senior banker. The banks have become frustrated waiting for action from the Bank and have accused King of dragging his feet.
Peter Spencer, economic adviser to the Ernst & Young Item club, which uses the Treasury’s model of the economy, warns in a report this weekend that the economy is on course to slow to 1.5% growth next year after a weak 1.8% this year, alongside a 10% fall in house prices.
But Spencer, who said the need for action from the authorities was urgent, said that it was possible that the Bank, if successful, could both stabilise and improve the outlook. “If it does the job things could look quite a lot better next year,” he said.
The Item forecast is for a significant rebalancing of the economy on the back of a weaker pound and the squeeze on household spending. It sees the share of gross domestic product taken by consumer spending dropping from 63.5% to 61%, balanced by a rise in the contribution of net exports. Spencer said this shift was likely to continue even if the Bank was successful in stabilising the markets. Economists do not expect credit conditions to return to where they were before the global financial crisis hit last summer.
Michael Hume of Lehman Brothers said the Bank’s scheme appeared to be along the right lines. “Providing banks with funding for an extended period would be a genuine novelty that would – if we are right that the principal problem is one of liquidity funding risk – get at the heart of the problem,” he said.
However, he warned that the liquidity facility might eventually need to be much bigger than is now envisaged. “Given the scale of wholesale funding it is questionable whether, say, £50 billion, or even £100 billion, would be enough,” he said.
Darling will meet mortgage lenders on Tuesday to discuss ways to help homeowners in difficulty.
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As with interest rate reductions too little too late again I'm afraid. The damage to the housing market is not just a matter of interest rate cuts or printing money this time around there are other factors that are precipitating the crash well outside of BOE control. We are in new territory at present and a greater degree of lateral thinking is required as opposed to the blunt instruments at the BOEs disposal.
john, milton keynes,
I recall a labour minister some months ago crowing on that the sub-prime problem would not effect the UK as their fundamentals were different. Finally the market has proven her wrong - to the detriment of those who continued to buy. The real point of this is that the problem is a global one and the proposed BOE measures will have no med/long term impact. Making it worse is that it might encourage some to take a mortgage in a very unstable market. Undoubtly the banks will take the opportunity as offered because they are commercial enterprises but any profits will end up in the hands of the few.... as always. Throwing money at this problem will not help. A correction is needed and some banks will need to go through some hurt as well before we can begin to recover.
RHD, Brussels, Belgium
People should have no worries about borrowing money to buy a house. In the long run the value of the house will be higher than the price they pay. Also, with the high real inflation rates that are endemic to this country the real value of loan will be falling at a fast rate every year. In other words: don't worry be happy!
John, LONDON, ENGLAND
Anything to keep the bankers in their Porches and keep housing unafordable for FTBs.
Gareth Jones, Dusseldorf, Germany
The BoE is following the example of the Weimar Republic, printing more and more money to pay off debts. The resultant inflationary prices we are all paying for such 'luxuries' as food, electricity and petrol are crippling the economy as well as devaluing our earnings and savings, all to bail out an unsustainable asset bubble caused by the banks' irresponsible lending.
Mervyn's King's 'liquidity' is *causing* a recession by making us all poorer and therefore restricting our disposable incomes. It has gone to far already, the banks must raise their own finances without help from the state by share issues and encouraging saving. Raising the base rate would help the latter. Providing more credit to a heavily indebted economy is like providing whisky to an alcoholic, who cannot give it up.
Paul, Coventry,
thats it boys keep the merry go round going throw more money at the houses so they can go up and we can borrow more money that is the best thing to do now hahaha
robert christian, castletown, isle of man
Its good news to hear that the powers that be... are getting their act together and sorting this serious problem out !....they better..I hope....This continued string of financial bad news and constant looking over the cliff edge mentality is doing us all no good...I'm waiting for the Four Men of the Apocalypse to carry me away sometime soon if this continues. Its time to crack the crunch and get back to business.
Darcy Napier, Belfast, Ireland
We did indeed have White Wednesday on 16/09/92.There is a small problen,however,if we think we can have another one.Anyone care to guess at what is is?The man at N°11 obviously doesn't know.
Stephen Hulton, eure, france
If nobody is lending any money it doesn't matter what the BOE do with base rates.Hence,surely it would be better to increase them and keep inflation down.Higher rates would attract more cash.
Stephen Hulton, eure, france
Those banks desperate for this cash should be allowed to go bust, in the same way as Northern Wreck and taken out of their shareholders hands. The prudent lenders who have not over-extended their balance sheets should be given additional funding to replace cowboy banks such as the RBS, HBOS etc. Penalise the bad, reward the good. King is doing the opposite using taxpayers money which should be illegal and considered an act of treason against British Subjects. The UK economy desperately needs a housing crash and a recession to purge itself of its addiction to criminal usury and excess borrowing.
john smith, manchester, UK
The key issue is that we are entering a post credit boom era. There is going to be less credit on offer. The pool of available credit is smaller. The BoE is bringing about a situation whereby debt is repayed in an orderly fashion as opposed to mass repayment default. I don't see this a saving the economy, it looks like management of the economic slowdown.
Let us hope it works but whatever happens property prices are going to gradually slide downwards for the next 12 to 36 months. A drop of 20% in real terms during the coming period isn't so unbelievable.
Costas, Cyprus,
James, I would argue that depreciating your currency at this time in the economic cycle makes perfect sense. The decline in the US Dollar has helped many American companies off-set poor domestic sales with strong international performance, hence the US stock markets have not collapsed. In the UK, "White Wednesday" provides historic proof that in certain circumstances, a sharp currency depreciation and low interest rates can kick start a declining economy and not cause inflation.
richard moseley, budapest, hungary
This debt is called Toxic Waste for a very very good reason. Its worthless. The banks need to come clean, and any mortage debt with a LTV of more than 70% needs to be kept on the banks balance sheets. It needs to be paid with the money shareholders would recieve as dividends.
For the past 5 years, I have acted prudedntly, saved, not got into too much debt. I shouldnt have bothered. I should have got that sportscar, widescreen TV and 125% mortgage and spent the lot, because my 40% taxes are now going to pay for everyone elses reckless lending.
Mervyn, sir, I believe you to be a good man, very qualified at his job, who is currently coming under immense pressure politically. Sir, please remember your independence, do not abandon us savers to Moral Hazard and protect our government gilts by restricting mortgage security purchases to 70% LTV (on the off chance prices crash 30%) and dont accept a single penny of unsecured lending in exchange for taxpayers money.
Sam Smith, Southport, UK
I don't remember Parliament or the country being asked as to whether they are happy about putting up £50bn of taxpayer's cash to get the banks out of a hole.
DickW, Aberdeenshire, Scotland
James in London, how exactly are rate cuts, which depreciate our currency, going to bail out the economy? Every rate cut makes Sterling a less attractive proposition for investors, who are dumping it in their droves. The consequence *is* real price inflation, with food and fuel costs rising at an annualised percentage rate well into double figures, thus squeezing everyone's disposable incomes.
John in Torroella, you are spot on. The British banks should be extending mortgage terms to up to 40 years if required so that monthly payments can be reduced. House prices will still come down, but at a slower rate, and although thousands of mortgagees will still find themselves in negative equity, they will be at a significantly reduced risk of repossession. The banks will not 'need' to beg for help from the BoE because the asset they have loaned on will have recovered in value by the time the mortgage they have loaned on it is paid off.
Paul, Coventry,
Yet another scam from nu-labour to save a sinking ship,what they are doing is "moving the deck chairs on the Titanic".
BY putting at risk a further £50bn taxpayers money should be illegal and leaves the taxpayer exposed to some £150bn property risk including The Rock.
The mortgage backed securities that the Bank will exchange for bonds are "RUBBISH" thats why the banks can't trade with them.
If Brown and his monkey lose all this money by effectively underwriting UK property market the Taxpayer should go looking for them personally. They know they have lost there jobs in any future election but they should not get away with this reckless interference in banking finance.
Peter Sheer, HEREFORD, HEREFORDSHIRE
The Spanish banks are proposing a good solution for low income mortgage holders. When rates increase to make monthly payments difficult they will increase the period of repayment at no charge to the client. This seems a good solution beneficial also to the lender who avoids another probable failed mortgage.
John, Torroella, Spain
it seems you are under the incorrect belief that solving the credit crisis ( a fed type TAF will help-not solve) will stop the economy slowing. It won't- banks will be able to now PART fund their existing pre-08 mortgage portolios, but will still be tightening their lending criteria on mortgage rate resets and new products. The credit card applications have stopped falling through our letter boxes and the pain for consumers in outgoings in utility bills,petrol,food and mortgage payments will now be the driver.And for those blinkered morons who consider this 'inflation' to be needing rate HIKES , I point out that wages are subdued and thus that means lower spending and a slowing economy. A reason to cut rates. Everyone seems to be believe this credit crisis stopped the economy growing at those heady rates when in fact the signs were there that the housing boom was turning before july of last year. The people telling us the crisis is over are the same people who led us into it ! hello?
james, london, uk
The government has not choice but to do this £50 Billion mortgage swap. The reason beingi, house prices will fall, unemployment will kick in 2009.
If you have no job, negative equity in your property, credit card debts; the easy option would be personal bankruptcy. Government would have to house you and you would start life with a clean sheet after a year.
Johny, Kings Langley, England
Most people will be spending less this year than last,why.Everything except a sofa and a plasma sceen TV has gone up by around 10%.Wages will be going up by around 3% if your lucky.In addition to this thare is £1.4 trillion to be serviced.Conclusion,a slowdown in consumer spending.If the BOE keep cutting rates,increased consumer spending ,more debt ,falling pound,higher prices.However,the problem will be worse in 2009.It needs sorting out now,not after the next election.
Stephen Hulton, eure, france