Christine Seib
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The financial sector endured a painful first quarter of 2008, with higher
operating costs and a sharp fall in profitability, and gave a gloomy outlook
of rising borrowing costs and job cuts for the coming six months.
Almost 50 per cent of the companies questioned for the CBI’s financial
services survey, carried out in conjunction with PricewaterhouseCoopers,
reported a fall in business volumes that was worse than expected. Close to
20 per cent said that profitability was down, while 25 per cent had cut jobs
during the quarter. Employment expectations for the coming three months were
the bleakest since December 2002.
The Bank of England has been providing an extra £5 billion each week at its
cash auctions for Britain’s banks, but Ian McCafferty, the CBI’s chief
economic adviser, said that this would not solve the fundamental problem of
the lack of trust in the financial markets that was plaguing companies. As a
result, banks had refused to lend to each other and lending to other
businesses has slowed dramatically.
“It’s clear that the credit crunch has worsened over the first three months of
this year,” he said. “The interbank markets have become more gummed up, with
banks even more unwilling to lend, and credit spreads have widened.” He
predicted further tough times for the financial sector.
Companies said that their plans for spending on IT were flat and expenditure
on land, buildings, vehicles, plant and machinery were the lowest since June
1992. Almost 10 per cent of respondents predicted that lending to industrial
and commercial companies would decline in the next quarter.
Credit spreads were reported to have widened strongly by 35 per cent of the
companies surveyed – the biggest gap since March 1993.
Continued funding difficulties meant that respondents were more pessimistic
about the credit crunch than they had been in the final quarter of 2007.
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All this is going to mean a severe drop in profits in the financial sector. This will be followed by a greatly reduced tax take - Corporation Tax liabilities will be wiped out by debt write offs and reduced personal incomes will dent the 45% tax on City salaries. Where does Gordon think he is going get the money to run the bloated public sector?
Ian, Buckingham, England