The problem with fighting an election with catchy pledges of economic renaissance is that there is one - big - catch: the economy can, with brutal speed, make the victor look foolish, incompetent or worse.

Yet across Asia that is the gamble that politicians have taken to their electorates, particularly in the “hair-trigger” economies of South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia. It is a gamble, economists say, that could backfire spectacularly as a global credit implosion lays bare the myth of Asian decoupling.

The rise of China and rampant global commodity markets have changed Asian fundamentals significantly. What has not changed is the relative contribution of exports to those economies and the 55 per cent ratio of exports to GDP in the region as a whole. Bombastic election promises and the growth forecasts that backed them were made when the whole investment world was assuming a “business as usual” future for many Asian nations. For most of last year that seemed reasonable, because national balance sheets in the region looked robust and financial industries seemed untroubled by successive waves of sub-prime crisis fallout. We may now be at the point, Lehman Brothers says, where Asian growth projections are slashed by “non-linear effects”, especially those arising from rising inflation in the region and worsening conditions in the United States.

To make matters more volatile, the storm is gathering as Asia is celebrating the effective birth of three new governments, each one the product of economy-centric campaigning. Many of the region’s biggest risks, some economists argue, arise where the promises have been the most effusive. In Taiwan the opposition party of Ma Ying-jeou won a landslide victory this month by promising to focus on the economy rather than on nationalist posturing. Lee Myung Bak came to power in Seoul pledging to focus on the economy rather than on leftist dithering. In Malaysia - although the Barisan Nasional party remains in power - the opposition of Anwar Ibrahim engineered the biggest election upset for 40 years demanding a focus on the economy rather than on corrosive corruption.

Yet where previously there was a clear mandate, political analysts say that it is only a matter of time before the phrase “conditions beyond our control” becomes the mantra of the new leaders.

Taiwanese leaders, elected amid great hopes of economic revitalisation and closer ties with mainland China, could be among the first to utter those words. Not only is the island more exposed than most to a US slowdown, but it is also vulnerable because “private consumption and investment are likely to remain lacklustre even with the arrival of new political leadership”, according to HSBC analysts.

Efforts to embrace the growth of China will be rapid, but they will also expose the poor shape of the Taiwanese domestic scene, its infrastructure and financial sector. Middle-income households are struggling. Peter Sutton, of CLSA, believes that no general recovery of the domestic economy can be expected before next year. A strengthening of cross-straits relations, therefore, may not be the quick fix that the new Government has been banking on.

Malaysia has solid domestic demand and rocketing palm oil prices have boosted exports, but Matthew Hildebrandt, a JPMorgan Chase economist, believes that the aftermath of the election may darken the immediate economic picture. Weakened by the Opposition’s advances, the Government is under pressure to make a show of reining in corruption. One probable effect is that as wasteful government projects are cancelled - or delayed while the bidding process is made more transparent – a mood of uncertainty descends on the economy. Private sector investment, a pillar of official growth projections, could also suffer as industry shifts into a wait-and-see mode on capital spending.

Mr Hildebrandt said: “Negative effects from any of these factors could be particularly harmful, given that risks to private sector investment have already risen from deterioration in global demand and credit conditions.”

South Korea may be even more fragile. Mr Lee is being questioned regarding his credibility as a business-friendly, economy-boosting “bulldozer”. “It is very difficult to imagine that [his] targets are achievable, particularly this year,” Duncan Wooldridge, a UBS Asia economist, said.

Perhaps soon the Asian economy may achieve the decoupling that would have seen it through the present US meltdown, Robert Subbara-man, of Lehman Brothers, said, “but the region is not yet at the point where it is immune . . . The situation can weaken very sharply at a tipping point, and we are not that far from that.”

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