Gary Duncan: Analysis
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At last, a tipping point is looming for Britain's national obsession: the housing market. The long boom in residential property prices has clearly been over for months, with volatile moves up and down in prices pointing to the market's shaky foundations.
But with hindsight, it may well be that the past month or so will come to be seen as the decisive turning point when the long housing boom mutated into a nasty bust.
There is scant doubt from the latest gauges of conditions that the housing market is now firmly in the grip of a substantial downturn. After detecting five consecutive months of falling prices, Nationwide Building Society has finally conceded that prices will fall throughout the year. Many other expert observers agree and such falls now seem a racing certainty.
What has changed in the past few weeks is the certainty surrounding some crucial assumptions about the consequences of a correction in home values. Many observers have believed that such a correction would mean falls in average house prices of 10 per cent or more, but have argued that a severe property crash was unlikely unless the economy slumped. In the past, Britain has always needed such a “trigger” to send house prices plunging, while cuts in interest rates have often rekindled buying and selling activity, and property price inflation.
This key assumption about what homeowners now face may well still hold, but is facing a critical test thanks to the highly unusual conditions being created by the credit crunch.
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Despite all the facts, figures and statistics there can be no doubt that sentiment in the housing market has turned. The lynch pin of the housing market, the first time buyer will cling to their deposits because who in their right mind would make the biggest investment of their lives in a house that is destined to loose value. For years they have pobably saved up to try and buy a property that has increasingly looke far to expensive for them to afford. Now the very lending institutions that have precided over this bubble have also decided that they don't particularly want to lend. Where this will stop no one can say.
David Nammory, Liverpool,
<see below> .... Bankers, Estate Agents & overpaid wallies in the fianacial sector & associated industries, will be made redundant, work in the construction sector will slow, consumer spending will slow, {worse still, overpriced sandwich shops in the city will have to shut down}, a lot of our Eastern European friends will be off home, the economy will suffer as a whole, and the downaward cycle will continue, until an equilibrium is reached {or worst still breached.}
Anyone brave enough to convince me otherwise? {Those in the housing industry need not apply, as we konw that you will cling to optimism until your own bankruptcy.}
Paul, London, England
This is the way I see it. {Worst case scenario}
Banks have little money to lend. In any suppy & demand market, demand for mortgages is outstripping supply. So prices for lending are going up, & will continue to do so until a balance is maintained.
Ongoing, this increasingly eliminates those buyers with limited depositis, & those Landlords who are geared to the hilt already. Thus removing demand from the marketplace.
Some of these geared to the hilt landlords, will go pop, adding to the supply in the marketplace. Some Landlords, who bought in the past 5 years, will be selling as colse to April 5th as poss, to take advantage of the new tax regime, combined with their wish to get out as close to the top as possible, adding further supply to the marketplace.
Joe Public on initial discounted deals with little, or negative equity will be forced to pay much higher rates. Some will be unable to, causing repossesions & adding to supply in the market place.....
Paul, London, England
The real tipping point is weakness in the jobs market. If the jobs market weakens banks could panic and trigger mass foreclosure on mortgages in an attempt to maintain liquidity. Another possible trigger could be a falling pound.
There are three ways of dealing with debt; repay, default or erode. It seems that the UK is going to experience a mixture of all three.
There simply isn't enough credit, the worrying thing is that there won't be enough credit for a year or maybe more. It is looking more than likely that the government will have to deal with the credit over-hang by taking mortgage debt as collateral on a mass scale.
I seem to remember New Labour saying that they have ended the boom and bust cycle. I seem to remember someone else saying New Labour, new danger!
Costas, Cyprus,
What amuses me most is the assumption that an economy will carry on happily while a credit crunch is going on. This is the fallacious belief of the vested interests in continuing high house prices.
David, Guildford,
Banks are here to make money not lend money on depreciating assets. They are busy investing in the next global 'Bubble'; the rising Chinese economy.
john, milton keynes,
Perhaps you didn't notice the financial turmoil last summer? The run on Northern Rock? Or that various house price indices (which measure prices at different points in the buying process) show peaks from July 07 (primelocation) through August (Halifax) to October (Nationwide and Rightmove). This story is a bit behind the times.
Mark, Woking,
Bye bye Pound! it was nice having met you.
I am going home, back to the safety of the Zloty
Igor, Richmond,
I am not sure that the 'credit crunch' constitutes 'higly unusual conditions'. It is not some freak incident outwith the control of man. Nor is it simply a US problem, that the UK has imported. The recent boom (housing etc) was fuelled by unsubstaibale levels of lending, both in terms of amount of lending and cost of lending. Banks and borrowers got greedy and banks massivley mispriced risk. The current credit crunch now is simply the flip side to the earlier excesses, with banks trying re-balance their business to the reality that us borrowers have run out of capacity to service our debts.
No more boom and bust Tony and Gordon said .
will, manchester, UK
This is the first time, after Bank of England's interest cut Building Societies increasing their mortgage interest rates. It is simply obstructing Govt's action to help ease credit crunch and so the inflation. Government should take action to curb it.
dipak das, camberley, surrey
Indeed Edward and while savers have suffered rate cuts, mortgagees have not benefitted from them. The banks and building societies have increased their profits at the expense of both.
Paul, Coventry,
Cuts in interest rates have no impact on asset prices during a credit crunch because the banks cannot afford to pass on the savings. As we have seen in the US, rates have been slashed dramatically whilst mortgage rates have risen.
Edward, London,