Steve Hawkes and Grainne Gilmore
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House prices are rising at the slowest rate for 12 years in a blow that could force the Bank of England to bring forward an interest rate cut to April, Britain’s second-biggest mortgage lender said today.
Figures from the Nationwide showed that the price of a typical house dropped this month by 0.6 per cent — or nearly £250 — to an average of £179,100.
The decline means that the annual rate of house price inflation is 1.1 per cent, the lowest since March 1996.
Fionnuala Earley, group economist for Nationwide, said it was clear that there was a “sharp slowdown” in house prices.
She said: "The outlook for UK house prices is clearly more downbeat. Some of the downside risks we idenitfied in November have become a reality — most notably the continued turmoil in the financial markets."
She added that the collapse of Bear Stearns in the US and the rumours over the health of HBOS was likely to force the Bank of England to put aside fears over inflation and cut rates next month to "loosen conditions in financial markets".
A survey reported yesterday suggested that inflation could spiral to 3.6 per cent over the next 12 months.
Ms Earley said: “We think these latest developments, along with the continued weakening in the housing market, will mean that the [Bank of England] will bring forward its rate cut to April.”
Howard Archer, chief economist for Global Insight, gave warning today that there was the real possibility of a "sharp correction" in the property market.
He has been predicting a 5 per cent fall in both this year and next.
Mr Archer said: "We believe the downside for house prices will be limited to some extent by the rising number of households, an overall shortage of supply, high employment, further gradual but steady interest rate cuts over the coming year and the fact that few vendors are currently having to sell for 'distressed' reasons.
"Nevertheless, the current escalation of the credit crunch means that there is an increased risk that a significantly sharper housing market correction could occur."
Nationwide was one of two big lenders to put up its mortgage rates yesterday to close the door to all but the most creditworthy customers in a move that is expected to leave tens of thousands of borrowers struggling to secure a home loan.
The building society raised the rate on one of its most popular products by 0.57 per cent and said that it did not want to take on many more customers because doing so would add too much risk on to its books.
Within hours of the announcement, Norwich & Peterborough Building Society said that it was increasing its mortgage rates by up to half a percentage point.
There are fears that if other lenders followed suit, the property market could slow further.
The number of first-time buyers coming to the market has slowed, with a third fewer mortgages taken out for house purchases last month than in February 2007.
One mortgage industry source yesterday said: "The credit crunch feels like a stomach bug for borrowers — periods of calm followed by nasty spasms. This is the start of a spasm."
Nationwide urged homeowners today to put the slowdown in the housing market into context.
Typical house prices are 11 per cent higher than two years ago and 47 per cent higher than five years ago — the equivalent of £30 a day for the past five years.
Ms Earley said: "If prices were to fall in line with consumers' expectations, they would still be higher than two years ago.
"A moderate fall in prices at this stage should not be unwelcome and should help to ensure greater stability in the market going forward."
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Why is it not a "good thing" that house prices are "rising" at their slowest rate for 2 years.
Higher house prices mean you need larger mortgages to buy them.
From an economic perspective capital tied up in houses is not available for productive use.
James, NI, UK
During the good times the banks, via an army of mortgage brokers were willing to forward large loans to unsuitable borrowers. It now seems that they were happy to do so as they were using someome elses money.
In the past we haven't experienced moderate falls in prices after a boom. If prices start falling they usually fall by a large percentage.
Del, London,
The first point to make is that the so-called housing supply shortage is something of a mirage. House prices are detemined by the intersection of effective demand and supply for houses. If demand for housing is not effective, i.e. incomes insufficient and funding unavailable, it does not matter a jot how much people want houses, there will be no transactions and therefore price will decline..
Malcolm, Cambridge, UK
And just as the economy couldnt get any more boring, we have a sudden change n inflations peeping up! The UK is way too senstive to the hosuing market...the governement have to realise that cutting intrest rates is only good for the short term, in the long term with fears of a recession is going to leave out economy worse than it was in 1992!
Chandni, Leicester,
I may become a forced seller in the near future. I am fortunate that I have sufficient equity in my house to downgrade without too much pain.
The housing market in the UK is immoral!!
Del, London,
I think we all do know the definition of a recession. the official government one.
However we also have the brains to recognise what one is without 'govenment approval'''...i suppose you think inflat is only 2.5% as the governmant says too.
Keith, \London,
Look at tge headlines of todays Daily Express.It says that house prices are still rising.I could not believe my eyes,I think they must have made a mistake or they still think its 29th March 2007.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Does no-one know the technical definition of a recession any more? WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION. Yet.
Aziraphale, London,
The BOE's job is to protect Britain from inflation. The BOE's job is NOT to bail out people who recklessly speculated in the property market. If house prices have to fall 30-40% to bring them to realistic levels, so be it.
AA, San Jose,
So, I just did a bit of research.
If I buy a small two-up-two-down terrace without a garden, I will pay 920 quid in mortgage payments every month.
If I rent a 4 bedroom luxury detached with a garden, I will pay 1000 quid a month in rent. Renting a little terrace would cost me 500 quid a month.
Why would I want to buy a house, exactly? If I rent now, and put the difference in a savings account, I'd have a lovely deposit in a few years' time.
starling, stockport,
For 10 years Blair and Brown passively rode the crest of a thriving global economy but allowed the British government and its citizens to borrow beyond its means and fritter away the money. The country is mortgaged to the hilt with fixed committments to grandiose schemes financed by PFI and the savings cupboard is now bare. The strength and stability of pound sterling and our financial industry has been found to be illusory and globally we are becoming just a "bit player". Be prepared for "the pound in your pocket" to be worth quite a bit less in the future! And don't rely on British government statistics and spin - The global big boys put their money where their mouths are - and it ain't Britain!
Pierre, Blackburn, Lancs
Any rise in house prices, be it retreat in real terms, is against all what "the Streat" has said of UK's economy in past two or three months.
And now "the Bank" is going to fulfill their expectations in lower yet interest rates!
Wellcome to losses for those not owing properties.
PLK, Marlax,
James Shah. Are you mad!? Why do yo want to buy an asset now which is likely to be worth 40% less in a couple of years time - that's an 80k saving on a 200k property if you have a little patience.
Clive, Chichester, UK
The folly of the BoE's two recent rate cuts is coming home to roost. Inflation is running rampant meaning that the base rate needs to rise by a good few percent to take the heat out of it. Cutting the base rate again will not reflate the housing bubble - face it Ms Earley, it has BURST - but it will hyperinflate food and fuel prices hurting everyone.
Paul, Coventry,
The damage has already been done with all of the irresponsible lending over the last few years. Now we must live with the consequences.
Rob, London,
Don't worry James Shah,
You'll be able to pick your house up at a fraction of the present cost in a year or so so really you shouldn't worry!
Austin Tassletine, South West, UK
When the article quotes inflation it should say what type since there are a number of government measures ;cpi rpi,rpix and of course the real inflation which is in double digits for most people.
If the media want to do something helpful thay should construct and publish monthly an inflation index showing real inflation.
James, NI, UK
why cant we just standardise house price increase.(inflation) when i bought my house i thought great in 25 years ill own it relaive worth will be what i paid for it in real terms and ill have somwhere to live. the last 6 years have all been a big con and some people have made a lot of money out of the likes of all of us these very people are now crying for help, they were not making any noise when they were making stupid money?
neil edwards, paignton, devon
I am a first time buyer and its becoming more and more frustrating at how the market is turning. Only a month ago i was so sure of buying a property which fell through. The number of lenders offering 100% mortgage has reduced to only 2 or maybe 3 in the UK!
How is one supossed to buy if everything is so strict!
James Shah, Ilford, England
The article states "A survey reported yesterday suggested that inflation could spiral to 3.6 per cent over the next 12 months. "
We are already there!! Inflation could spiral to over 10 per cent over the next 12 months if oil, food, energy and petrol keep rising at the current pace. The government would of course make suitable adjustments before any reporting takes place.
Kevin Herbert, Greater Manchester, UK
The recession started last summer and has gathered pace since then. No point in beating about the bush. House prices are falling and will fall for some to come as they are just out of all proportion to reality.
David Pearl, London,
There is actually no indication that the BoE will drop rates to ease financial liquidity - inflation is not easing. Even if they do the drops will be miniscule and will in any case not be passed on to the kind of highly-leveraged borrowers that need a rate-cut the most. Anyone, seller or estate agent, who is pinning their hopes on a rate cut to save the housing market needs to get real, and fast before they end up with 20-30% losses.
MB, Edinburgh,
Why don't the newspapers do something constructive instead of all this pointless, endless (and innaccurate) speculating about the housing market? Why not start a campaign to improve all the legal and financial processes associated with buying and selling a house. Find ways to stop the speculation, stop the irresponsible lending, stop all the other dubious practices associated with the housing market and create a stable, secure environment for the house purchaser and seller. I see nothing wrong with a house being a hedge against inflation, but we mustn't lose sense of its number one priority which is to provide a home. House price speculation creates such a huge distortion in the economy, but we've known this for a very long time haven't we and what do we do about it? .......Nothing.
Huw Rhys, Killarney, Ireland
Lets have an honest look at this... mortgage companies are rasing their margins (rates for new borrowers and existing ones looking for a new deal) . The bank of england cutting rates will have little effect on this.
People say so what ... we'll benefit from the resulting lower prices... bash the property investors etc etc.
ACTAULLY
This will effect the poor, first time buyers, middle income households the worst and first... it'll result in ruined lives and forced sales for ORDINARY people .
Those who cheer may find themselves out a job fairly soon if a recession results which it may well do.
We are not talking about people who have borrowed irresponsibly here, we are talking about ordinary middle income england. People say they will not become forced sellers, but if they cannot get a new mortgage when their current deal expires or the new deal is 30% more expensive this will at best reduce their disposable income by enough to force a recession at best. Cheerers be warned.
abharrisson, london,
I think i'm in agreement with Wrighty about misleading headline. We are interested to know the movement between now and previous month, thus a drop in price......not weakest growth since 1996. A price correction will be good for all interested parties, as the current level is not sustainable let alone any future rise. Imagine the amount of mortgate on interest only, what will happen after the duration of the loan? Price should go down, Bank of England should focus on inflation, developers and estates agents should accepts this and borrowers should only borrow what they could afford.
As a mortage owner occupier, albeit interest only, my desire is for others to able to do the same for consumption purpose.
Cecil, London,
Why does the press put up with the government's comedy measure of inflation the CPI? It does not properly reflect the increased cost of living that British taxpayers are experiencing, and is just another of Gordon's dodgy economic tests.
If Steve Hawkes and Grainne Gilmore want a better understanding of the difference between the CPI and the RPI (a proper measure of inflation as used by almost all other major economies) I can suggest the following FAQ...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6266733.stm
Chris, London,
How does .6% of 179000 odd come anywhere close to £250? Is it not closer to £1000?
Robert, Limerick,
How is an interest rate reduction going to help the housing market, when the rate reductions are not passed on to the borrower?
I feel that at least if we hold interest rates at the current level we may be able to curb inflation and then everyone will benefit.
Barbara, Hereford,
Year on year might be a growth of just over 1%, but at this rate of fall, very soon both sets of numbers will be in decline as we head first down a very long and steep slope - downhill. So as a previous comment: we need to be realistic and avoid estate agent window dressing.
I also struggle to understand why people still think the interest rates are going to stop a house price crash. Risk is still so high that the lenders want to turn away customers with higher rates.
We need to think of long term solutions to this crazy property rollercoaster. We need to stop the huge variances in credit available over time and set some strict guidelines. Like no more than 75% LTV, no interest only over 15 years, max 20 year mortgage terms etc etc.
If we don't we'll be reading all about this crash in 10-12 years time when entering the next one. The problem is that those buying houses to LIVE in are the sufferers and those making money out of instability the winners.
JP, Beaconsfield, Bucks
We all know you cannot sell your house unless you drop the price a lot more than £250.What a lot of propaganda this house price reporting is.
House prices are plummeting in America Spain Ireland France Even in China now.All these people trying to sell with out dropping there price will regret in 1 year they are gonna to be a lot lower than now.
fred , croydon, surreu
Why the misleading headline ? "House price growth is weakest..."
In your second para you tell us the truth (which, by the way, we are all aware of), that house prices are FALLING.
You are a famous newspaper; you don't have to play the estate agent's game of telling us that everything is just tickety-boo.
wrighty, paris, france
I'm confused - I thought that the MPC of the Bank of England's remit in setting interest rates was to keep inflation around a target ratet, not to stimulate an already over-inflated housing market? But then I don't write for The Times, so what do I know?
Simon Stock, Meppershall, Bedfordshire
Another day another headline about home prices. Yes, we can all ready between the lines now of what these so called experts are saying. They really have no control over where this will go and can only hope people keep beleiving that Home prices will steadly rise forever and ever. A good correction and some pain for those who were foolish will be a good thing for this country and us all.
John Cowen, Southampton, UK
Isn't a 0.6% fall from £179,100 a drop of £1074.60 in a month, and not the stated "nearly £250"? It's more like a fall of £250 a week......
Matt, London, London
Excellent news!
Now Estate Agents et al will have to go out and do some work...
Austin Tassletine, South West, UK
I find these kind of statements really irritating. Who will benefit from continued house price increases? Estate agents, banks, people investing in property... Who benefits from drops? Everyone else! Listen to the majority and don't drop rates. Banks benefit from rate drops as they are not planning on reducing mortgage pricing, they'll j ust use it to shore up their own finances.
Goldmember, Bristol,