Grainne GIlmore and Agencies
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today added to the growing chorus of concern the US is heading for a full-blown slowdown, stating that the world's largest economy "remains very weak, certainly close to a possible recession."
A leaked draft copy of the IMF's world economic outlook, the agency confirmed US growth would reach 1.5 per cent over 2008.
The forecast, which could still be changed before the report is released in April 9, is in contrast to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) US gross domestic product (GDP) would grow by 0.1 percent in the first three months of this year, and then slow to zero expansion in the second quarter.
Earlier this week, the IMF said the Federal Reserve’s emergency measures to calm turmoil in the credit market, including a three-quarters of a percentage point cut in interest rates, were “appropriate”.
The IMF's outlook report is expected to confirm global growth at 4.2 per cent in 2008, slightly above the IMF’s last forecast in January of 4.1 per cent but well below its 2007 forcecast of 4.9 per cent.
ANSA, an Italian News Agency, states that the IMF study backs the European Central Bank's (ECB) hardline stance in not cutting interest rates.
It said: “The ECB is rightly holding interest rates stable for now,” adding that the ECB “should be ready to respond in a flexible manner if downward risks to growth and inflation growth intensify.”
IMF First Deputy Managing Director, John Lipsky, has said in recent weeks that growth in the US is sluggish but it is not in recession.
US Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, this week described the country’s economy as being in“sharp decline." This is the closest he has come to conceding an election-year recession.
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IMF may describe the situation in any way it wishes, but the US Treasury will want it to avoid use of the dirty "R" word. The world is tired of Its forecasts which have ceased to have credibility.
Unlike the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) which had issued warning at the earliest stage, IMF has been pussyfooting with US data. Till recently, it was tinckering with data to show slight decline in growth rate and did not see any sign of recession. Mr. Lipsky of the IMF seems t to have become the soothsayer and has often carried the wrong message.
Again, the IMF which had ripped the last marrow out of East Asian countries when they faced a crisis - a mini one in fact when compared with the current US crisis - and directed the fire sale of the assets of their banks is now crowing about the appropriate intervention by Fed, etc. It is difficult to understand the double standards adopted by the agency..
K. Subramanian, CHENNAI, INDIA
IMF too bad your analysis is out dated. The US is in a major recession and it will impact the rest of the world. The US consumer has no equity in their homes and inflation is killing any change of them spending their way out of this problem.
Europe is headed for the same problem. Although they may not have the same problems with housing collapse their high currency is going to cause some major pains.
Why the US, ECM, England and Japan don't work together to solve this problem is beyond me. The need to be pro-active not reactive...Time to have international liquidity infusion and US currency intervention (reduction in infaltion). This is a win/win scenario.
One humble man's opinion.
Manny, Waterloo, Canada