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AMERICA’s economy is definitely in recession, economists say, amid growing fears that the credit crunch is entering its most dangerous phase.
Figures on Friday showing a second successive monthly fall in US employment sealed the question of whether America had entered its first recession since the 2001 downturn.
The US lost 63,000 jobs in February, said the Department of Labor, amid the fastest fall in private-sector jobs in five years. The decline, which followed a 22,000 drop in January, the first fall in more than four years, surprised many economists who had been expecting a slight rise. Manufacturers and construction companies led the decline as they absorbed the costs of the housing slump.
“The debate is over,” said Paul Ashworth, senior US economist at Capital Economics. “The 63,000 decline in nonfarm pay-rolls in February is near-conclus-ive proof that the economy is now in recession.”
In a note to investors, Joshua Shapiro, economist at MFR, described the jobs numbers as “a terrible report” that signals “no support at all now for consumer spending growth”.
Both the White House and the US Treasury continue to argue that the American economy is not in recession. Opinion continues to mount up against them, however.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, the body that is regarded as the official arbiter of whether America has entered a recession, will not issue its formal verdict for some months.
But Martin Feldstein, who has headed the bureau for three decades, told The Sunday Times: “On the basis of the available evidence, I would say we are in recession. But numbers get revised. And the delayed effects of the monetary and tax stimulus could kick in and pull the economy back onto a growth path.”
On Friday, Larry Summers, the former US Treasury secretary, said the economy is “currently in recession” and warned that it was likely to be severe in its length and depth.
“I believe we are facing the most serious combination of macroeconomic and financial stresses that the US has faced in a generation - and possibly, much longer than that,” he said, addressing an annual economics summit organised by Stanford University in California.
Summers said there was “a regrettable reluctance in Washington to recognise the ‘R’ word” and that the situation was likely to get worse. Official estimates of the cost of the housing and mortgage bust, put at $400 billion (£199 billion), were likely to be “substantially optimistic”.
The worry is that a prolonged recession will send house prices down further, undermining the banks and thus hitting the financial markets with a double blow.
His comments came as another leading Wall Street forecaster joined economists from Global Insight, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS in saying that America had definitely entered a recession. Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Brothers, said: “We now believe the tax-rebate cheques will arrive too late to prevent an outright recession. We look for modestly negative GDP growth in both the first and second quarters of 2008.
“The economy is likely to experience an extended period of very weak growth, a rising unemployment rate and significant further Fed rate cuts,” he added. “This is a bigger, but more gradual, shock to the economy than either the 1990 or 2001 recession.”
The gloomy news led to a sharp fall in shares on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average falling by 147 points to 11,894, for a two-day fall of 370 points. All three important US market indexes are at their lowest level since 2006.
It followed another attempt by the Federal Reserve to ease strains in the credit and money markets. The US central bank said it would add as much as $200 billion in liquidity over the next month. The Fed said it was responding to a rapid deterioration in the credit markets and was acting to help its beleaguered Wall Street banks.
“All the lights are flashing red,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight. “We’re in a recession. I don’t think there is any doubt about it at this point.”
Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JP Morgan, said: “We now think the economy can be described as having entered a recession in early 2008.”
The deepening gloom means that the Fed is likely to slash interest rates further from the current 3% level.
Analysts expect a cut of at least 0.75 points either at or before the Fed’s next scheduled policy meeting on March 18.
The expectation of aggressive rate cuts is likely to undermine the dollar further. Sterling climbed back above the $2 level last week after the Bank of England left UK interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. The dollar’s slide pushed the price of oil to a new record of $106 a barrel on Friday and helped the gold price to nearly $1,000 an ounce.
Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, said on a visit to California that the employment figures were bad but not surprising. “Clearly these jobs numbers that came out today are not welcome, and not good news,” he said. “This is a tough quarter - we know it.”
On Friday President George Bush sought to allay fears of recession. “I know Americans are concerned about our economy, so am I,” said Bush. “It’s clear our economy has slowed, but the good news is we anticipated this and took decisive action to bolster the economy. We recognised the problem early and provided the economy with a booster shot.”
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Uma Shankar is right - thank you - it is indeed time to take
America back from the "neo-socialists" (or neo-conservatives) who are digging our economic grave. Presidential candidate
Ron Paul is the only one who understands this of all the
candidates - and for that he is hated by Washington and
scoffed and ignored by our media.
Trude Blomsoy, Coos Bay, OR., USA
Sorry Jagadish the Figures are correct, in fact slightly low. But then I predicted all this back in 98 and bought hog-futures. Hog futures have increased by 400% in the same time frame. Eat the Recession.
Elwin parsley, london , UK
A strong currency is the best protection against rising inflation.
Pierre Bernardi, Paris, France
If the coming recession forces Americans out of their SUVs and reduces their oil demand, it won't be a complete dissaster.
Geoff. Marshall, Auckland, New Zealand
The US economy most certainly doesn't need the rest of the world, like the rest of the world needs it. The US economy is in fact one of the only modern economies, which could quite happily close its borders and refuse to trade internationally.
This recession and the ensuing global finance crisis will ultimately show the softness in the Chinese economy. It will be an interesting 3months.
Joe, Constance, Germany
Contrary to the view of some, I am saving lots of money - recession or not. My investments were planned long ago - not based on greed, but on soundness. It has paid off in spades.
Robert Strathy, Lake Placid, Florida USA
Almost no one is saving any money in the United States today. Many donât have any money to save or simply donât want to save. Saving rates are very low or negative in many US states. The US government debt grows by about $1.5 billion per day and has now crossed more than $13.2 trillion dollars. The US private household debt has now crossed more than $14.7 trillion and half of these debts have been incurred after 1998. The fact is that the expanding consumer debt drives the US economy. The Americans are enjoying the present spending spree at the cost of their own future and future generations. In the near future, many Americans might have to face harsh reality like a poverty-stricken, third world family, living from hand to mouth situation without any kind of financial reserves whatsoever. The imminent economic crisis is waiting to happen in the US and will be most thoroughly predicted one in recent human history.
Uma Shankar, UK,
The rich US neo-socialist âelementsâ were capable of thinking, planning, starting and are carrying on an illegal âwar on terrorâ in Afghanistan and Iraq to siphon of millions and millions of US taxpayerâs dollars for the sole benefit of arms manufacturers, oil traders and the security firms. It already had cost the lives of more than 100,000 Iraqi civilians and 4,500 US tropes, injured 200,00 Iraqi civilians and 75,000 US tropes and more than 2,000,000 displaced Iraqi refugees. They simply linked 9/11 to Afghanistan and then WMD to Iraq for initiating this illegal âwar on terrorâ moneymaking horror.
Dear Americans, it is the right time to claim back your dear America back from all those neo-socialist âelementsâ. Or your future and future generations will go to early grave without a reason and without a fight.
Uma Shankar, UK,
To Lance in the States,
Very amusing ,so the cheap money of the last decade only
went to a sub group namely sub prime, eck I'm using the
word myself !! .
Chris, Nottingham,
This is Greenspan's legacy as a result from cutting the interest rate to a silly 1%, post 9/11. A spectacular success for Al Qaeda....
cww, suffolk,
america is not in a recession now, they are now in a deep depression. they have been in recession for nearly a year now and are spirilling lower. they can do 0 now to prevent it because they caused it by cutting rates to 1%. they will just have to grind it out for 10 years.
mike keary, paisley, scotland
Where the American economy goes the UK economy will follow. The Americans can increase exports to overcome the worst of the coming recession but these days the UK has limited exporting capabilities.
I hope that the days of "Consumption Ecomonics" are over. I hope that the American and British voters elect governments that adopt long lasting economic policies.
Costas, Cyprus,
Dear Sir,
If I am permitted to challenge the numbers mentioned in this article,
$400Billion equals $400,000Million. At an average house price of $200,000 in US, we 2Million people or roughly a population of 8Million [including families] defaulted. This compared against 62,000 job losses is quite an incomparable number.
I am not saying the US economy is not in recession but Is there a bit of an exaggeration here?
Jagadish, Bromley, UK
In fact a strong pound vs the dollar probably does no real harm as we do not trade much with the US compared to Europe and we have a lot of dollar earnings from large multinaitionals (Oil and Drug companies for example)
The pound has actually fallen quite sharply against the Euro recently and this is more important and beneficial for our trade balance.
Our problems are not related to the strength or otherwise of sterling
Chris , Haslemere, Surrey
In order to sustain its national debt, the US economy must grow proportionately. We are "condemned to consume," so to speak, that we may carry our large national debt without being crushed by it. This ironic necessity has made United Statesans increasingly greedy ever since the advent of Reaganomics. Now money is all that people care about. This recession was inevitable because, contrary to Wall Street pipe dreams, no economy can keep growing endlessly and without limit forever, each year greater than the last. There is a limit to all things, even imagination.
It was predictable that "interest-only" housing loans would trigger this recession (and the worst is yet to come). In its frenzy to "grow the economy," the US government turned a blind eye to these loans and now cries crocodile tears.
W. James, Sacramento, USA / CA
Hey Brits: 1/3 of Americans love the war and suicide economics, 1/3 love peace and pay as you go, and 1/3 are just ducking for the nearest cover. American is divided into 3 "ethnic" groups, just like Iraq! What comes around goes around. Crazy world. Like Iraq, policy is dictated by the extremest, but here we call them "Fundamentalists". So, when you speak of "Americans" please realize that you are probably only referring to a subgroup of 1/3 of the nation!
lance, Philadelphia, USA
President Bush flew onto an aircraft carrier and declaired that the war in Iraq was over. Today it continues and the bodybags are still being filled.
Now he tries to tell us that we are not in recession.
Got it wrong again.
The US has been spending money it did not have for years. It is now payback time and it is beginning to hurt.
If the president can not recognise the economic symptoms then what hope has the country to solve this problem. His plan to print money and give everyone 600 dollars is doomed, except to help the Chinese economy. Expect a surge in the sales of DVD players and digital TVs.
This hand out will not solve the glut of over priced and over supplied housing. Nor will it solve the personal and national debt problems.
Richard Ward, Greensboro, USA
The US economy gives the impression of an alcoholic who believes the cure is to have another drink (i.e. more financial easing). Americans are used to asset inflation providing their incomes and are in for a rude awakening. No fiscal or menetary stimulus can solve the current woes It will be a long time before Americans recover from this hangover and realize that they have to work for a living.
Jasper, Greenwich,
The greed of the fatcats in the financial sector got us where we are. Having appropriated much of the western world's eonomic growth in the last decade, they threw crumbs to more ordinary mortals in the form of cheap and easy credits, which worked only so long as asset values continued to rise. Now the rest of society is having to chip in to make good the damage the fatcats have done to their industry, while at the same time facing up to a hefty explosion in raw material and food prices.
At least Bernanke and the Fed have grasped the urgency of the situation. That's more than can be said of Trichet and his henchmen at the Euro Central Bank, who are still fighting the previous war and do not seem to have realise that you can't fight raw material cost escalation with high interest rates - it simply removes further purchasing power from the long-suffering consumer and spells (surprise, surprise!) RECESSION writ large. And at $2/£, the UK economy is looking over a cliff.....
Douglas, Basel, Switzerland