Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve’s chairman, gave a renewed signal today that it will order another interest rate cut next month to bolster the faltering American economy, but hinted at growing Fed anxieties over its ability to stave-off a severe US downturn.
Shares rallied on Wall Street after the central bank’s chief reaffirmed markets’ expectations that it is likely to deliver a further half-point cut in its key Fed Funds rate on March 18, on the heels of an aggressive 1.25 percentage points of reductions made over the past five weeks.
The Fed “will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks”, Mr Bernanke said as he delivered a gloomy assessment of US prospects to the House of Representatives’ financial services committee.
However the Fed’s chairman also sought to rein-in markets’ expectations over its scope to keep cutting interest rates, pointing to its mounting worries over persistent inflationary pressures.
He hinted, too, that the Fed may also be becoming worried over the power of its sharp interest rates to shore-up growth, since despite these moves US borrowing costs for most households and companies have continued to climb as the credit squeeze tightens.
Mr Bernanke’s expression of increased concern over US inflationary dangers came as the Fed’s headache over price pressures was worsened by a fresh slump in the dollar, that will further stoke America’s import bills.
The dollar’s latest tumble propelled the euro to a new record high that took it above $1.50 for the first time, to levels as high as $1.5105. The pound also leapt, to within striking distance of $2, reaching $1.9971.
Intense pressure on the dollar was magnified in later trading by Mr Bernanke’s signal that US official interest rates are set to keep falling at a time when the European Central Bank is reluctant to cut rates.
The Fed’s inflationary woes were deepened still further, meanwhile, as the dollar’s slide sparked sharp gains in prices for oil and other commodities, driving the benchmark cost of crude to record levels above $102 a barrel.
Gold prices also surged, reaching a record $964.70 an ounce in spot markets.
In a shift of tone that indicated greater concern at the Fed over inflation, Mr Bernanke said that rising energy and commodity costs and the latest inflation figures “suggest slightly greater upside risks to the projections of both overall and core inflation than we saw last month”.
He gave warning that higher inflation, and rising expectations of future inflation among consumers and companies, “could reduce the flexibility of the [Fed] to counter shortfalls of growth in the future”.
In an indication of Fed nervousness over the potency of its rate cuts, Mr Bernanke added that the Fed faced a critical task of monetary whether its policy decisions were “properly calibrated to foster our mandated objectives”. Economists saw this remark as an indication of Fed unease that actual interest rates for borrowers have kept rising even as it has cut official rates.
In a pessimistic analysis of the US growth outlook, Mr Bernanke said that the overall situation was now “distinctly less favourable”, and that the latest data “continues to suggest sluggish economic activity in the near term”.
He said that consumer spending “appears to have slowed significantly” while “the business sector has also displayed signs of being affected by the difficulties in the housing and credit markets”.
Sounding a warning that the risks to prospects continue to be skewed towards a further deterioration, the Fed chairman said the US faced the threat that its housing and jobs markets could worsen more than forecast, or that “credit conditions may tighten substantially further”.
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Every earthly matter has its own cycle. The economy is no exception. A peak is always followed by a trough; years of prosperity alternate with years of gloom. Those who are naive enough to think that they can overcome the force of nature are doomed to failure.
Refusing to let things run their own courses, both the US government and the Fed have left no stones unturned in their attempts to buck the trend of an inevitable economic downturn. By a combination of fiscal and monetary policies, they hope to revive an economy which has lost steam after years of rapid growth. Perhaps it is too bold a statement to make that their efforts will ultimately prove futile. But it is obvious that they are fighting a losing battle. The health of the US economy will worsen further before we will see any silver linings. Meanwhile, just let the sick person take a good rest.
Bernard , HK,
Bernanke is an expert on the 1929 crash and the deflation of the Japanese market in the 90's. He is terrorfied of deflation as this is almost impossible to control by Govt intervention. Bernanke has no option but to pump as much money into the system as possible and to give lip service to inflation.
The problem is that America has so much debt that I am not sure it will work even if the policy does save the banks. The american consumer is in such serious trouble that they are paying for living expenses by raiding their retirement funds, paying mortgages by credit cards etc.
The Dollar is doomed and commodities will surge in price. Gold will soon break $1,000/oz and oil maintain a price of well over $100. The Swiss Franc will soon be at parity.
We should also remember that what goes for the USA goes for the UK. The UK is in a far worse debt situation than all the main economic countries and unlike the USA, it cannot print Pounds to try and reflate to 'safety'
m grelton, Alton, UK
Not looking good is it?
High oil price,rising inflation,falling house prices.I think the only way out of this mess is to allow inflation to rise.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Well Mr. Bernanke sees a dim picture and yet the answers to many of these issues is crystal clear. Imediately raise tarriffs and get America back to work. A society cannot exist by working in call centres at $10 hr. America must pull in its horns and remove itself as the interantional policeman. these two moves will solve America's problems. the paradox is that these same twomoves while involving self interest will have a profound effect on the rest of the world. Onwards and Upwards for America.
jerry mccullough, St.Catharines, CANADA