Jonathan Loynes
Chief European economist,
Capital Economics

We are not forecasting a technical recession but we are expecting several years of weak growth in the economy. Certainly, there is a reasonable chance this might include a recession. We wouldn't rule it out. We also expect the problems to be prolonged because we think 2009 will be weaker than 2008.

Odds of a recession 3-1

George Buckley
Chief UK economist,
Deutsche Bank

The rate of growth in the first half of this year will halve to about 0.3per cent or 0.4 per cent. The economy will be significantly weaker, but there won't be a recession. We expect things to recover in the second half. There is no doubt that the risk of a recession has increased, but the last quarter of 2007 held up much better than we thought it would.

Odds 6-1

David Kern
Economic adviser to the
British Chambers of Commerce

I don't forecast a recession. The annual pace of growth in 2008 will be much lower than in 2007 - it will virtually halve - but even then

I don't expect to see two negative quarters in a row. It will be more of a decline over a long period of time.

I expect growth this year will be well below 2per cent, and in one or two quarters GDP may well flirt with 0per cent. But even if we have a technical recession, we can still have year-on-year growth of 1 per cent. I'm not cheerful about the outlook, but the mood in the financial markets is much more edgy than in the real economy.

Odds 4-1

Simon Hayes
UK economist,
Barclays Capital

The probability of a recession is low in the UK. You would need sharp falls in consumer spending in the next couple of quarters and it's not clear how that would happen. The housing market looks vulnerable at the moment. Maybe if house prices fall, consumer spending will slow - it's a risk, but not a certainty. If a

US recession comes to fruition then we are in another situation. The UK avoided being hit last time that the US went into recession because there was strong government spending, but that probably won't happen this time round. In the near term, there is a low probability of a recession, but later this year and next year, if there is global uncertainty, it's harder to call.

Odds 6-1

Richard Lambert
Director-General of the CBI

There is still quite a lot of momentum in the economy, our recent industrial trends survey showed surprisingly strong results for the sector. The manufacturing sector is also being helped by the weakness in sterling. Our flexible labour market is a stabilising force and the employment figures look strong. If unemployment started to rise, things would definitely be different. House prices are wobbling, but there is still a lot of pent-up demand for housing in this country and people have a lot of equity in their homes, so prices would have to fall a long way before there was a dramatic effect on consumption.

Odds 7-1

Philip Shaw
Chief economist, Investec

We are looking at growth at 2 per cent rather than 3 per cent this year and house prices will fall around 5per cent. There will be a loss of the feelgood factor and, while it may be uncomfortable, it won't be recession. It's a close call whether the US is already in recession, but we judge that the factors dragging the US into weakness don't affect the UK in the same way. We don't have the sub-prime problems and we don't have the same difficulties with monoline insurers.

Odds 5-1

Curse of negative growth

The economy is officially in recession when GDP, the main measure of its performance, shows negative growth for two successive quarters. The most recent figures for the last quarter of 2007 estimate that Britain’s GDP grew at 0.6 per cent, but annual growth was still 2.9 per cent. The UK endured a slowdown — defined by some as annual growth of less than 2 per cent — in 2005, when growth dipped to 1.8 per cent.

The last technical recession occurred when Sinead O’Connor was at No 1 with Nothing Compares 2 U. The song’s miserable tone was apt because there was only negative growth between the third quarter of 1990 and the third quarter of 1991.

In 1980, a recession started in mid-year, with another female performer topping the charts, but Blondie’s Call Me was more upbeat. The downturn proved tough for Margaret Thatcher, the new Prime Minister. The recession officially ended in the second quarter of 1981.

Edward Heath had to cope with a short, sharp recession in late 1973; so, too, did Harold Wilson in early 1975.

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