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to The Sunday Times
After the carnage on global markets on Black Monday, Japan and Australia were
the first powerhouse economies to see the dawn of Tuesday morning. While
American markets had taken Monday off for Martin Luther King Day, the panic
gripping global markets had continued to wreak havoc.
Yesterday, as US traders slept, the bloody trading began anew on the other
side of the world. By midnight GMT Australia’s markets had been open
an hour. Investors’ rush for the door crashed the website of the country’s
leading online share broker, CommSec, as the market started an immediate
downward spiral. The stock market’s fall of nearly 3 per cent on Monday
looked timid as it raced towards its biggest one-day slide in 20 years. Hans
Kunnen, the head of investment markets research for Colonial First State,
said: “Judging by the mood of the market today, the bears are certainly
winning.”
However, what the Asian markets did not know, as they started their downward
spiral, was that in America the members of the Federal Reserve were calling
each other. At 11pm, UK time, a video conference started in Washington that
would culminate in a decision to make an unprecedented, deep cut to interest
rates.
While the US policymakers agonised over their decision to cut rates, traders
in Australia and Japan continued to panic as two questions gripped
investors. Will there be a US recession? How much will it hurt me?
As London headed to bed at midnight, the carnage kicked off in Japan, with
Tokyo's domestic shares suffering one of the worst trading days in history,
diving 5.7 per cent as entire trading screens turned crimson with “sell”
orders. If there were optimistic souls answering the questions in Japan,
their bullishness was quickly quashed by the Bank of Japan. It admitted that
growth in the world’s second-biggest economy will be lower than previous
forecasts.
Rumours of large fund collapses and redemptions increased the gloom and were
used to explain what brokers in Nomura Securities described as an “asset
fire sale”.
The bears were ruling the Japanese markets. Recognising the seriousness of
the market collapse – Tokyo-listed shares have lost nearly 10 per cent of
their value this week - Yasuo Fukuda, the Japanese Prime Minister, said that
“the actual economic situation in Japan is not one in which stocks keep
sagging”. However, his confirmation later that the Government would take no
immediate action to halt the market collapse did not lighten the mood. Blue
chips such as Canon, Toyota and Sony were dragged into the downward spiral,
despite solid recent performance.
While Australia and Japan led the fallers, the meltdown spread through Asian
markets. At 1.30am, the market opened in a Shanghai still bruised
from its 5 per cent fall a day earlier. A fledgeling market, Shanghai has
out-performed its peers over the past two years, but yesterday there was
only one colour on the screens – and it was an unfamiliar red.
One investor wrote on a Chinese website: “This is not just a bear market,
it’s the end of the world.” Another man, in despair at the tumbling value of
his stock investments, climbed to the top of a Beijing department store and
threatened to jump.
Wu Lei, analyst at CITIC-Kington Securities, said: “We cannot see a floor now
as the market is full of panic. The index is on the way to 4,000 if it
cannot find support around 4,500 points.”
Half an hour later, at 2am British time, the Hong Kong markets opened
to an indiscriminate rout. Companies from airlines to property developers
plunged in value, but with financial stocks hit hardest. Early on in the
day’s trading it became clear that it was going to be brutal – by the end of
the sell-off HK$2.5 trillion (£160 billion) would be wiped off Hong Kong’s
market capitalisation.
John Tsang, the Hong Kong Financial Secretary, urged caution, but the market
paid little heed.
Dawn spread across Asia, and the panic followed close behind. At 4.25am Indian
markets opened in Bombay and stayed open just a few minutes before the
Bombay stock exchange authorities were forced to suspend trading for an
hour. Government ministers appealed for calm after the Sensex plummeted more
than 10 per cent in early deals. The flagship index, the most volatile in
Asia over the past two sessions, hit a low of 15,576.30, down from
16,884.09, within minutes of opening.
During the halt in trading Palan-iappan Chidambaram, the Indian Finance
Minister, called for investors to ignore the bearish signals emanating from
Wall Street. “There is no reason to allow the worries of the Western world
to overwhelm us,” he said. “Our economy is different, is strong.”
The minister’s words of calm were ignored as the mood darkened. The slump
marked a dramatic U-turn in sentiment among India’s new generation of retail
investors – especially those who had dabbled in the futures markets and have
been bombarded with heavy margin calls.
Yesterday, as small retail investors absorbed Monday’s 7.4 per cent market
slump, the mood was very different. In the financial press in Bombay,
January 21 was already being described as India’s “Black Monday”.
By the time the closing bell tolled in Japan at 6am, not a single
share in the Nikkei 225 average was in positive territory as investors
pulled billions from the market. The “safe haven” status of the yen –
yesterday bought strongly against the tumbling US dollar – also conspired to
hurt the shares of the many exporter stocks on which the Japanese economy
depends.
The mood among Japanese fund managers was black as the markets closed. The
threat of a savage recession in the United States, fund managers said, is
now seen as a potential time bomb for the Asian growth story. “The idea that
China, India and the rest of the region are somehow going to escape unharmed
has evaporated as a myth and today’s mayhem was the proof of that,” one said.
Shanghai, one of the world’s best-performing stock markets in the past two
years, fell again, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 7amat
a five-month low of 4,559.75 points, a fall of 17 per cent in the past six
trading days.
The next markets to open were in the Middle East, where traders across the
region pressed the “sell” button. Gulf stock markets posted record falls,
dashing investor hopes that the emerging markets in the Middle East would be
immune from US turmoil. As the world waited for America to wake up, the
selling was spreading.
Markets in Britain, France and Germany opened at 8am, with the example
of the battered Asian markets reso-nating across the Continent. The
Australian benchmark S&P/ASX200 index plunged 7.05 per cent to 5,186.8,
eclipsing the last big fall of 6.79 per cent amid the Asian financial crisis
ten years ago.
Shanghai was down 7.2 per cent, India off 5 per cent and Hong Kong off 8.7
per cent. Small wonder, then, that the FTSE collapsed on opening at 8am,
losing 4 per cent of its value within the first few minutes’ trading.
Martin Slaney, the head of derivatives for GFT Global Markets, the
spread-better, said: “Everyone came in this morning braced for big losses.
Rumours were flying around of a federal rate cut, but we’d heard that
before. It was fairly chaotic in the markets. When you’re seeing losses like
that and then it’s reversed, it’s incredibly difficult to trade.”
Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Madrid all dived within minutes of opening –
but slowly sentiment began to change, as the rumours began to gain ground.
The Fed was going to act. A 50 basis point cut to US interest rates was
coming. In a market gripped by panic, the sense that some kind of salvation
loomed turned the mood. The FTSE swung upwards, dramatically reversing its
earlier falls. By 11am, the FTSE was up by 22 points, and gyrated
around that mark as all eyes, hopes and fears turned to Wall Street.
While Europe held its breath, senior European politicians sought to calm
fears and play down talk of a recession. “There are no signs of a recession
in Germany and that’s also the case for Europe,” Angela Merkel, the German
Chancellor, said.
Christine Lagarde, the French Finance Minister, said: “Even if the United
States goes into recession . . . it’s not a tragedy in itself. It’s not
because things are in a spin that we must lose our heads.”
While the politicians sought to calm frayed nerves, the real action had
moved, inevitably, across the Atlantic.
Early morning in the United States and a conference was taking place between
members of the Fed. One member of the ten-man board was absent and one voted
against the rate cut – Frederic Mishkin, who claimed that current conditions
did not justify a cut before the meeting scheduled for January 29-30. Then,
at 1.20pm, the announcement came.
A three quarters of a percentage point cut. An unprecedented move. The first
reaction was relief, and then the awkward questions came. Why so savage a
cut? What does the Fed know that I don’t know? The FTSE fell back, waiting
to see how Wall Street answered the questions.
As soon as the rate cut was announced, futures contracts on the Dow Jones
jumped, indicating that Wall Street would open higher. However, in the
intervening hour, traders changed their minds – interpreting the big rate
cut as a panic measure by the central bank and recognition that the US was
sliding into a recession far more quickly than had been expected.
As soon as Wall Street opened, the Dow plunged 222 points, extending its loss
to as much as a 445 points, a 4 per cent slide, within minutes. Slowly,
though, the confidence crept back in.
Paris closed at 4.30pm up 2.07 per cent at 4,842.54 after losing 7 per
cent on Monday and a further 5 per cent within minutes of opening yesterday.
The FTSE, meanwhile, came round to the idea that the Fed’s action was
benevolent rather than malevolent. After the initial panic, confidence
seeped back into the market and the FTSE closed up 161.9 points. It was
still some way off its its Monday opening, but the relief was palpable in
the City as traders closed out their positions.
Over on Wall Street, the confidence factor was hard to pin down. The initial
panic subsided, but it was replaced by doubts about the ability of Ben
Bernan-ke, the Chairman of the Fed, to deal with the deteriorating credit
crisis. By 7pm in London, late lunchtime in New York, the losses had
lessened to about 145 points, as the market pondered the Fed’s decision.
Expectations of another half percentage point cut next week – priced into
the bond market – fuelled the paradox dragging on the market: the Fed needed
to act to shore up the US economy, but the fact that it acted so strongly
fuelled the panic that it was seeking to quash. The Dow Jones vacillated
while investors digested the paradox and hoped that the Fed does not know
something that we don’t.
The Dow closed down 128.10 points, at 11,971.20.
As Wall Street traders headed to the bar, however, there was a glimmer of
hope from Australia. Shares in Sydney – whose market opened at 11pm
London time – rallied with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 up 6 per cent
in the first hour of trading. Traders were reassured by a comment from
Australia’s central bank that it had no plans to bring forward the date of
its next scheduled meeting to set interest rates.
Reports by Jane Macartney, Beijing; Rhys Blakely, Bombay; Paul Larter,
Brisbane; Sonia Verma, Dubai; Christine Seib, London; Suzy Jagger, New York;
Adam Sage, Paris; Leo Lewis, Tokyo
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I strongly believe that a rate cut - one week in advance of the proposed announcement - speaks volumes. As for the crash, perhaps averted short term but inevitable long term.
I'm quite enjoying this new spectator sport. Especially listening to the experts squirm.
Like many, I have accrued savings,and I'm looking to buy my first poperty I cannot do this until property prices drop, which, judging by previous recessions (sorry "economic instabilities") they will.
John, Oxford, Great Britain