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The Bank of England’s Governor gave warning last night that Britain faces a “possibly quite sharp” slowdown this year after the US announced an emergency interest rate cut, its biggest for 26 years.
Mervyn King said that the Bank may be powerless to prevent a slowdown as the US Federal Reserve tried to prevent a global share rout and the world’s biggest economy plunging into recession. “We have little control over the strength of the economic winds buffeting our economy,” he said. “It is important that everyone understands the limits of central banks to smooth the economy.”
The move by the US Federal Reserve reduced America’s base interest rate by 0.75 of a percentage point to 3.5 per cent, a week before its scheduled interest-rate meeting. It was the first time that it has imposed an emergency rate cut since just after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001.
The Fed intervened after mounting fears of a US recession gave global stock markets the jitters on Monday, wiping £77 billion, or 5.5 per cent, off the value of Britain’s FTSE 100 share index, which suffered its biggest percentage loss since the September 11 atrocities.
The rate cut was imposed before America’s markets reopened yesterday morning after Monday’s public holiday and was designed to prevent similar losses in the US. The FTSE 100, which lost almost 240 points in its first hour of trading yesterday, took heart from the Fed’s action and closed up 161.9 at 5740.1, marking one of the wildest swings in its history.
Downing Street insisted yesterday that Britain was well placed to withstand the shocks to the world economy. Ministers fully expect a cut when the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets next month, and possibly in March as well. But they cannot be seen to put open pressure on the Bank, which could be perceived as compromising its independence.
Even so, Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary and Gordon Brown’s close ally, went close to suggesting that cuts were on the way. “The good news from Britain’s point of view is that inflation is low, and is coming down,” he told the BBC. Countries in which inflation was up could not cut rates, he said. “Those days are behind us in Britain. The Bank of England has got flexibility. Inflation is low and we will see what happens in the next few months.”
The Bank of England cut rates in December to 5.5 per cent but left them unchanged this month. No 10 said that an announcement on the governorship of the Bank of England could be expected shortly. Mr King is likely to be reappointed for a second term.
Most economists expect the Fed to impose a further rate cut, probably of 0.5 percentage points, at its next scheduled meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. An additional 0.5 percentage point cut was crucial if the market’s growing confidence was to be sustained, they added.
Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University who predicted the burst of the dot com bubble shortly before it happened in 2000, said: “The rate cut is a very dramatic move. In some ways it will boost the market’s confidence, but it could also have the reverse effect because it shows that the Federal Reserve is alarmed.”
The Dow Jones index of shares fell by 4 per cent immediately after the rate cut was announced as shareholders panicked, believing that such a drastic measure could mean that America’s economic outlook was even bleaker than expected.
The shares bounced back as dealers came to appreciate that the Fed was committed to helping the economy by reducing the cost of borrowing.
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Phew! I expect you needed a good lie down after all that, Doctor Barton!
Shirley Bowen, Blackpool, UK
"Last night Bank of England governor Mervyn King hinted that he thought UK interest rates were too high and appeared to encourage a cut by the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee."
He said: "With inflation low, with the Bank of England able to cut interest rates, as we saw just a couple of months ago, I think that we are in a strong position."
With these quotations, I sometimes wonder if these people are living in the same world as the rest of us. Of course, with their salaries and their pensions, they don't have to worry about paying the gas, electricity, water, petrol, council tax, food bills. It represents a tiny fraction of their total net income. For the rest of us, it is a very significant part.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
You are right Peter no-one believes it. In fact I suspect given the doubling of energy prices and if you include mortgage payments inflation may be as high as 5%. Remember energy and mortgages are paid by everyone & this is why some of these pay negotiations are so difficult at the moment
John, London, UK
Ed Balls comment that inflation in the UK is low, and is coming down is absurd. Does anyone belive the offical line that CPI remained steady at 2.1% in November and December 2007 (given oil and food prices recahing new highs in late 2007). Also whilst inflation wnet up in all OECD countries (naturally because of higher oil \food prices), apparently in the UK we were nimble and inflation did not budge - REALLY!. According to ONS inflation rose by 0.6% alone in December 2007. Inflation also rose by 0.3% alone in December 2006.The year on year inflation figures to November 2007 was 2.1%, if we subtract 0.3% from 2.1% and add the 0.6% December figures, the year on year inflation figures to December 2007, is 2.4% not 2.1% as we were told. The Government should be ashamed for conning the public.
Peter Cussins, London, UK
Near-Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. [comment]
On January 22, 2008 there were 921 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Jan. 2008 Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid Date(UT) Miss Distance Mag. Size
2005 WJ56 Jan. 10 10.9 LD 11 1.2 km
2008 AF3 Jan. 13 1.0 LD 14 27 m
1685 Toro Jan. 24 76 LD 13 6.2 km
2007 TU24 Jan. 29 1.4 LD 10 400 m
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
Big effects in near space could be cause of Economic scares from backward science people.
sum GMm/r=dm.s.t for magma in Eart giving volcano effects etc. Global heating and other planets similar
Dr MI Barton, Oxon., UK