Starting to worry about your job? Suddenly having to choose between mortgage
payments and a family holiday as the turbulence hitting world markets comes
ever nearer to home? Welcome to the economic slowdown.
This slowdown – defined as a slowing in the growth of economic output – is the
result of the pressure being felt by millions of consumers struggling with
rising interest rates, heftier mortgage bills and pricier household
goods.Figures out today are expected to show the British economy slowing
from 0.7 per cent to perhaps 0.5 per cent for the last three months of last
year.
This is not technically a recession – that requires national output to show
negative growth for two consecutive quarters. Most economists believe that
growth will weaken still further in coming months – for instance, about 1.8
per cent for this year compared with 3 per cent last year – inflicting much
harder times than those to which we have become accustomed.
Paul Dales, at Capital Economics, said: “It is possible to avoid a technical
recession but suffer the same consequences. If the economy was to grow very
slowly over a long period of time, the fallout could be just as bad as a
short, sharp fall.”
As consumers stop spending, many businesses struggle to thrive. This can lead
to job losses, which exacerbates the slowdown in spending.
George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said: “It’s like a
downward spiral. We really are on a knife edge at the moment. If
unemployment starts to increase, the ramifications will be pronounced.”
Recent employment figures are positive, however. The Office for National
Statistics said that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits had
fallen by 11,100 in November to 813,00 representing the lowest level since
June 1975.
The most recent economic slowdowns in 2004-05 and 2001 were benign and over
fairly quickly, but there is no guarantee how quickly the economy will pick
up this time.
Fears of a recession in the US were enough to cause turmoil in the stock
markets and an emergency rate cut by the US central bank. Only time will
tell whether that will do the trick. If it doesn’t, the impact will be
global. Mr Dales said: “The UK economy is quite open and it is certainly
affected by what happens overseas – that is part of the reason it is slowing
down.”
In the meantime, you can protect yourself against the effects of the slowdown
by following our guide:
Keeping your job
Try to understand the difficulties your company is facing in these challenging
economic times. Vanessa Robinson, an adviser at the Chartered Institute of
Personnel and Development, said: “Be proactive, and ask your boss or do your
own research. If you know what the challenges are, you won’t be seen to be
heading off in the wrong direction if the company decides it needs to
change.” Now is also the time to be positive and enthusiastic.
Investments
Unless you are close to retirement, there is no need to worry, advisers say.
Over the long term, the stock market is expected to rise again by enough to
cover this week’s losses. However anyone hoping to cash in their shares soon
may be better off taking their money out now and switching to safer cash or
fixed interest assets in case things get worse.
If you are lucky enough to have spare cash you want to invest, then you could
take advantage of the relatively cheap share prices by buying now. Brokers
were reporting their busiest day for years yesterday, as canny investors
rushed to buy shares.
Mortgages
Anyone struggling with their monthly mortgage bills should consider switching
from capital repayments to repaying just the interest on the loan. A lender
will charge £50 for the switch, but it could shave hundreds off monthly
outgoings. But this should be a short-term measure as failing to resume
repaying the capital means your risk not being able to pay off the full loan
at the end of term.
Extending the mortgage term, from, for example, 25 to 35 years, will reduce
monthly costs too – from £966 a month for a £150,000 loan at a rate of 6 per
cent, to £855.
Pensions
Those about to draw their pension will be the hardest hit by this downturn.
Most pension funds invest in the stock market, which leaves them especially
vulnerable. The insurance analyst Aon Consulting said that the pension funds
deficit rose by £15 billion on Monday. Anyone in, or approaching, retirement
is advised delay drawing on their pension fund if they can. Nigel Callaghan,
of Hargreaves Lansdown, an independent financial adviser, says: “If you have
other money you can draw on in the short term, for instance building society
savings, or can continue working for a few months more, then do.”
If you are worried about your pension fund, ask for a statement from your
provider. Pension companies usually transfer funds out of equities and into
safer cash or fixed interest assets five years before retirement. If you
want to arrange for this to happen sooner, you should ask your financial
adviser.
Savings
Moving savings to an instant access account so that cashflow is available in
emergencies is a good idea. Heritable Bank offers a rate of 6.46 per cent on
its Easy Access Account on deposits for more than £1,000. For deposits of
more than £1, Anglo Irish Bank offers a rate on its easy access account of
6.3 per cent.
Budgeting and debt
The good old solution to higher bills is simple budgeting. The debt charity
Credit Action suggests drawing up a list of everything you spend to see if
money is going on anything unnecessary. Say goodbye to takeaway coffees, and
make your lunch at home instead of buying it at work. Be stricter with
yourself and check your direct debits in case you are paying for anything
you have forgotten about, such as magazine subscriptions or regular charity
donations. If you have debt on credit cards or personal loans, switch to
deals with the cheapest interest rates, if you are not already on them, such
as a 0 per cent on balance transfers for 15 months on a credit card with
either Halifax or Virgin, or a 6.7 per cent loan deal from Money-back Bank.
Insurance
The consumer group Which? says we are wasting thousands of pounds each on
unnecessary insurance policies. You may have accidentally doubled up on some
kinds of insurance, such as mobile phone or travel, that are offered
alongside your current account or credit card. If you have, ditch the most
expensive.
Property
Forget striving to ascend the property ladder – homeowners must do all they
can in a recession just to stay put.
Property prices are already wobbling, with the least pessimistic commentators
predicting stagnant prices for the rest of 2008 and even into 2009. The
worst fate, as nervous buyers steer clear in such a downturn, is to become a
forced seller.
To ward off a forced sale, all homeowners should, take care with debt. Yolande
Barnes, head of research at the estate agent Savills, said: “The less you
have, the safer you are from a crisis.”
The strategy of staying put worked for many during the crash of the late
1980s. Ms Barnes said: “There are ways to avoid trading, such as renting out
your home if you need to move.”
Luckily, 14 years of upward momentum in prices means that most homeowners have
a comfortable cushion of equity. Those who do choose, or need to go to
market, can ensure an orderly sale by sensible pricing. Peter Young, of John
D Wood, says: “In a bearish housing market, which is what we have now, you
should ask for 95 per cent of the perceived price of the property, so that
it appears to be good value. Then you can let the market decide on the
price.”
First-time buyers may now be in their best position for years. Ms Barnes
advises this long-suffering group: “Take advantage of forced sales. Be brave
and don’t put it off.”
Beginner's glossary
Bear
Describing someone as bearish does not mean they are large and hairy, but that
they have a cautious and conservative outlook, and are more inclined to be
pessimistic. A bear market is characterised by falling share prices and poor
returns. Bear times are bad times
Bear squeeze
Not a hug from a grizzly, but a slight rise in share prices after they have
fallen sharply as traders who have been short selling buy back their
positions
Bull market
Share prices are consistently rising. Think “bull in a china shop” – excited,
but potentially dangerous
Bear market
Share prices are consistently falling. Think bear with a sore head – just sort
of grumpy
Dead cat bounce
When a share rallies after a large fall, before dropping to new lows – just as
a cat that falls from a height bounces on the ground when it lands, even
though it is dead
Catching a falling knife
Buying more shares as the prices slump, in the belief that they may soon
rebound. Likely to have the same effect on your wallet as actually catching
a falling knife will have on your hand
Correction
A misleading term – it sounds minor, but it actually means quite a steep fall
in the price of shares
Credit crunch
With all this free publicity it could become the name of a biscuit snack. But
it refers to the seizure in the money markets caused by the fallout from US
sub-prime mortgage customers defaulting on their loan payments. Big banks
refused to lend each other money and while some banks hoarded their cash,
others were left exposed without enough cash in their pocket. Think Northern
Rock
Going long
Buying shares in the belief that the price will increase, producing a profit.
A bit like buying a Hermès handbag in the hope that it will become a classic
commanding a much higher price at auction. This doesn’t always work
Growth recession
Not male pattern baldness, but very slow economic growth, which can have a
similar effect on consumers as a recession
Hyperinflation
When prices go up faster than people can spend their money. If you leave a
wheelbarrow of cash in the street, someone steals only the wheelbarrow
Hedging
Taking two positions that will offset each other if prices change and so
limiting financial risk. In roulette, the ultimate hedge bet is putting your
money on red and black – but you are bound to lose half your money. Hedge
fund managers are cleverer than that
Negative equity
Owing more on your home than it is actually worth. Lots of people who took out
mortgages for 100 per cent or more of the value of their properties are in
danger of this, especially when house prices fall
Short selling
When traders sell shares they don’t yet own as they believe prices will fall
and they can buy them back at a lower price. Like selling your laptop to
your mate for £1,000. Before you take it round, it breaks. You buy another
in a shop for £800 and give it to your mate, making £200
Stagflation
Not a beast the Royal Family hunts, but a coalescence of stagnation and
inflation – a period of slow growth with high inflation
Sub-prime mortgages
Home loans granted to people with troubled credit histories. Those who have
missed a few credit card payments are classed as “light” sub-prime, while
others who have become bankrupt in the past or who have court judgments
against their name for nonpayments of debts are “heavy” sub-prime
Wind up
It means something else to humorists, and Jeremy Beadle. In the money world,
it means when a company ceases activity with a view to shutting down. It can
also refer to ending a pension scheme, or a relationship. If you want to
dump someone, “I’d like to wind things up with you” should do it
Jim Wills - the banks are not all passing on the rate cuts and most, are infact in the process of rasing rates in preparation for the next BoE rate cut in Feb, so they can look like they are dropping rates. Smoke and mirrors mate. The one thing they are all doing is dropping interest rates for savers. My bank has already dropped 0.50 basis points on my internet saver account.
Yorkie, Amsterdam,
Isn't the scary volatility a result of the Programmed trading and sophisticated hedge tools used by the share gaming people. Bearing out the survival of the fittest in the market, the markets are now actually learning that by causing "runs" like the recent one they can force central banks to inject money, which they can then abscond with.
Surely it is time for the market regulators to respond to this somehow?
S Kyle, Aberdeen,
We might try to look on the coming recession as a blessing in disguise. Rising prices, especially of fuel and food are making me think of several cost saving measures which also happen to be good for the environement . This must surely be occurring to other people too. Perhaps the recession will make more of us consume less,walk and cycle more , grow our own vegetables, holiday at home and adopt energy saving measures in the home. Who knows we might actually enjoy that kind of lifestyle more than the current frenetic consumerist one.
Sheila, LEICESTER,
The journalists (3) state that interest rates are rising in Britain. Infact they are falling. Most people should therefore be able to afford their mortgages. The problem is not the level of interest rates but the difficulty in renewing existing mortgages. There is no money available in surplus in the banks. It all went down the gurgular with the sub-prime rate debacle. This article in general is not much help to the average man in the street. It is just another negative journalist blog, poorly timed and alarming in its generalisations. I give this effort by the 3 journalists a 2 out of 10 for content, accuracy and negativity.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia