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Falls in house prices across the country may now be at their most severe since the property slump of the early Nineties, according to bleak figures today suggesting that Britain's housing downturn is gathering pace.
A highly influential barometer of housing market conditions reports this morning that 49.1 per cent more surveyors found that house prices fell last month than saw them rise.
The gloomy result is the worst since November 1992 in the closely watched poll carried out by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), when this “negative balance” fell as far as minus 60.1 per cent. December's figure compares with a negative balance of 40.6 per cent of surveyors who reported that prices were on the slide in November.
With virtually every other reliable indicator of the housing market also pointing to grim conditions and falling prices, today's RICS report will deepen already intense gloom over prospects for homeowners this year.
The RICS finds that confidence among surveyors in the outlook for both sales and prices fell last month to their lowest levels in a decade.
House prices are seen to be falling in every area of England and Wales - although the results suggest that they rose slightly in Scotland. The heaviest falls appear to be taking place in the West Midlands and East Anglia, according to the survey's findings.
Anxieties are being heightened by a growing build-up of unsold properties on estate agents' books, with stocks of homes up by a further 7.1 per cent in December, on the heels of a 9.1 per cent leap in the previous month, according to the RICS data.
The survey's findings suggest that this increase in stocks - which threatens to act as a drag on house prices - may get worse, with December bringing a rise in new instructions by would-be sellers putting their homes on their market at the same time as demand remains seriously subdued.
The number of new instructions to sell properties climbed last month, with a net 4 per cent more surveyors reporting that these rose rather than fell, the RICS reports. That compares with a balance of minus 7 per cent in November. There were scant signs of improvement in demand from potential buyers, with 25 per cent more surveyors saying than buyer inquiries fell last month than said they had risen.
The surveyors' body said that the overall balance of supply and demand last month indicates the loosest market conditions since August 2005, during the last serious setback for the property market.
Demand from buyers may be being sapped by the toll from the credit squeeze, as mortgage lenders toughen their criteria for making home loans and reduce the amounts they are willing to allow housebuyers to borrow.
Ian Perry, a spokesman for the RICS, said: “The housing market is clearly feeling the pinch from the credit crunch and the round of interest rate hikes in 2007.” However, he argued that while sentiment “appears to have reached it lowest ebb” economic conditions now were vastly different from those that aggravated the housing downturn at the start of the last decade.
Simon Rubinsohn, the RICS chief economist, drew some comfort from the survey's finding that demand in the market, although still falling, was not declining as sharply as previous results suggested. “It doesn't mean that we are over the worst - but we may at least be finding a floor,” he said.
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Not that I'm into making money from property but I am actually going through buying a house at the moment. I've got quite a bit off the price (10%) as the owner wants to sell and the cost of the mortgage is going to be less than my rent (by £500 per month). I know prices are likely to dip and dip further in real terms I am thinking maybe 6 or 7 this year with possibly the same next year added to say a further 6 % of inflation loss over the two years makes something like 20 odd %. I really cannot see it going beyond that. After that it'll probably bump along like inflation for a couple of years and then return to trend which is 8%. A pattern like that above would see housing in line with the long term trend (from 1950) which is 8%. The result is in ten years time in cash terms the price of the house I am buying will be 48% higher, in real terms (inflation adjusted) it would be 10% higher. That sounds about right to me.... I'd have 10% more equity and would have saved £60k in rental diff
anthony harrisson, london,
Chris: Nothing motivates them - it's called brain-drain ;)
Ed, London,
The UK is a gloomy place to be right now.
The young are facing very tough lives with housing, cost of living, harder work enviroment and then our borders open..........
tog young, Bradford, West Yorkshire
It's been long awaited by those with an ounce of common sense. The overvalued propery market needs the biggest shake up it has ever experienced. 30% off the recent market value of residential property, in most areas, would see propery valued at a realistic level. Yakov Sherimyetkov
Yakov Sherimyetkov, Manchester, England
Will someone please get permission from Halifax before contradicting his word.
The fact that the the 'gloom' in the UK only started 3 months back it is hardly surprising the figures for 2008 and 1992 are not comparable as yet. Like all economists they expect the conditions to become fully entrenched in 24 hours so as to to a decent report. It takes months and months to fully take affect. The US is now 6-7 months into the cycle since we first saw signs that not all is well. And the market has a long way to bottom out yet. With only just under one third of the sub prime fallout seen according to this side we have at least another year - maybe 2 to go through. By that time if the UK market has not crashed it will only be because GB has been spending late nights with his John Bull printing set running off 5 pound notes.
Paul, London, Canada
"bleak figures....gloomy result" - I don't think so.
Falling house price are just what most of us need. I know of no other country where being £200k in debt to live in a shoe box is considered to be a good thing. I wonder sometimes what actually motivtaes young people who are not home ownwers to stay and work in the UK.
Chris Eades, Chipping Norton, Oxon