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The Bank of England is expected to go ahead with an interest rate cut next month despite factory gate inflation reaching a 16-year high during December, fuelled by rising oil and food prices.
Factory gate inflation, which includes prices for manufacturing materials, fuel, food, beverages and tobacco, rose by 0.5 per cent to 5 per cent in December, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), marking the highest level of inflation since August 1991.
Analysts had been expecting output costs to increase to 4.6 per cent, up from 4.5 per cent in November.
While fuel and food prices have risen strongly, pushing total output costs up 11.3 per cent for the 12 months to December 2007, non-core factory gate inflation, which includes raw materials only, rose by 0.6 per cent in the last month of the year – the highest increase in six months.
Despite the overall increase in factory gate inflation, the Bank of England is widely expected to reduce the interest rate by a quarter point to 5.25 per cent next month after maintaining the UK borrowing cost at 5.5 per cent last week.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, said: “The December producer price inflation data were pretty nasty, and probably contributed to the Bank of England's reluctance to cut interest rates for a second month running at its January MPC meeting.”
However, Mr Archer is among a number of economists who expect a rate cut next month.
Today’s figures from the ONS begin a week of statistics that will be instrumental in the Bank’s interest rate decision in February, including Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for December, house price information from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and figures on retail sales.
In the US, there is speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by as much as half a point to 3.75 per cent as figures expected this week are forecast to reveal poor retail sales for December.
Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chairman, signalled last week that he would be prepared to make further cuts to borrowing costs, to “take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks”.
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Go for it MPC!! Yes, save us poor homeowners trying to sell!! Savings, what savings?? Anyone whinging about inflationary effects eating into their savings, probably has too much money already!
dave richardson, stevenage, uk
They all know at the NU labour project, that they cant survive a house price crash, but cant do a jot about world oil prices! Answer? Save the housing market, dont worry about the price of bread. And people worrying about their savings? Who can afford to save these days? help the house sellers - yes
dave richardson, stevenage, uk
The Daily Express had a front page article stating That house prices were still rising by £1000 a month and said this was great news for home owners.They had a different article which said that food and energy inflation was the highest since records began.If this is true,why did the BOE cut rates last week.Based on this,they should have increased rates.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Blast from the past circa 1978!
Shame Joe Strummer is not around.
London calling to the underworld come out of the cupboards you boys and girls...
Im sure that was written about the undercurrent that has for the last 10 years of spending and inflation been kept well under wraps. Now what was the price of a house in the smoke then? mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Austin Tassletine, South West, UK
Can't really say much more than has already been said. This is a dangerous policy, and we should at the very least be maintaining interest rates or raising them slightly. The housing market can sort itself out. The BOE are risking companies going out of business and people losing their jobs, in which case they will not be able to afford their mortgage payments and the housing market will crash anyway.
One way or another interest rates will have to rise, because history has shown us that in economics, everything has to balance, so no matter how much Gorgon distorts the figures and the media push their own agenda, house prices WILL fall, and if the BOE drop rates, inflation WILL increase, meaning they have to raise them again.
Idiots....
Loop, Matlock, Derbys
Should we all be wishing for the Euro and not the pound?
The economy is heading for a brick wall at speed and The tax rises from April have to be pushed through what money will the govt use to bail out northern rock !!
What reserves have we got left.
Labour have and will always spend and spend and thus weaken the British Economy.
Just look at the number of jobs that are going EMI, Rolls Royce,and the building trade.
The fear of recession and the talk of recession will cause the recession to get deeper.
How the BOE and MPC think base rates drop does not make any sense to me and the average man in the street can only see price rises with food,gas,elec,petrol,and more rises to follow.
Bring on the election .
Jay, Manchester , uk
BoE mandate i thought was to control inflation and for financial stability rates should be going up! not down. It looks like the BoE has changed its mandate to support the housing market at all costs with lower rates. If this is the case then they should notify the British public that they have changed there stance so we all know where we stand.
gray, london,
Well put Rob.
The Times could do the country a service if it were to forward your comment to the relevant authorities.
If I were Prime Minister I would be encouraging the MPC to put up rates to stamp out inflation rather than see my economic legacy and my electoral chances destroyed.
James, NI UK,
If the BoE cut rates again what will happen...
The resulting currency devaluation and increased inflation will destroy the value any pension and savings you may have. Myself and alot of people like me will just not bother ever saving for the future because the Government and BoE policies just mean it isn't worth it.
You cannot run an economy based purely on spending borrowed money. We need higher interest rates to discourage debt, support the value of stirling, and channel investment into productive capital, not tie it up in unproductive bricks and mortar.
Further rate cuts will destroy our economy - we need to get back to reality.
Darren, Cheltenham,
Here we go, hold onto your hats folks, the destruction of Sterling has just started. And to think, it's all down to the fact that house prices are now so stupidly high BECAUSE they've been left out of the CPI measure since it's inception by Labour. If house price inflation had been checked by this simple tool, the debt fueled boom would have been curtailed and my savings wouldn't be in line for one hell of a beating over the next 12 months.
Rising house prices DO NOT make an economy!
Thanks, Gordon, BoE, etc...
Rob, Exeter, Devon
A VERY DANGEROUS GAME! Both the US and UK are going to allow their currencies to depreciate and drive up inflation. This will pour more liquidity into an over endebted economy and put off the urgently needed adjustment from consumption to investment.
Whilst the US can consume more home produce, the UK is more reliant on imports of food and raw materials which could trigger a sterling crisis with a 'Black Wednesday' repeat. The UK should follow the ECB model and keep inflation and hence sterling's value at reasonable levels. It is now up to the Government to cut public spending and return some confidence to the UK.
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, Devon