Carl Mortished, World Business Editor
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A wave of money is flooding into the commodity markets, adding more lustre to
gold and pointing a spotlight on obscure markets such as coffee, cocoa and
palm oil, as investors take fright from credit risk and the looming spectre
of recession.
Gold and platinum hit new records yesterday as traditional investors sought
out safe havens for cash in troubled times. Concern over emerging signs of
recession in the United States depressed the price of crude oil, which
seesawed in indecision yesterday, but coffee and cocoa soared as investors
searched for the next commodity stars.
The price of Robusta coffee futures gained $25 to $2,039 per tonne in London,
the highest level for nine and a half years. Cocoa was also in demand,
rising to £1,148 per tonne, a four-year high, as speculative funds sought
exposure to soft commodities.
Palm oil also hit a record price as evidence emerged in official statistics
that floods in Malaysia had affected output. The price of palm oil, used in
both food and cosmetics, has risen 8 per cent in less than a fortnight with
continuing concern about its use as a biofuel crop and burgeoning demand
from the food industry.
“It’s a global warming hedge,” said Tim Bond, head of asset allocation at
Barclays Capital, of the new fashion for soft commodities. “The last three
to four years has seen a rebirth of institutional interest in commodities.”
From buying global commodity indices, funds have moved to futures in oil and
metals and latterly to green and soft commodities, such as wheat and corn or
cocoa and coffee. Commodities fell deeply out of fashion in the 1990s but
rising affluence in Asia is putting pressure on food supplies, while climate
change is threatening food production.
From almost zero allocation, funds have given commodities a big slice of their
portfolios. “People doing portfolio optimisation find they need between 10
per cent and 20 per cent,” Mr Bond said.
After the initial surge in oil and base metals, wheat, corn and soya are in
demand and the search is now on for the next commodity to catch fire.
Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, Barclays’ soft commodities expert, believes it may
be cotton. A massive price gain in wheat, which tripled in value in a year,
is expected to lead to more planting by farmers and land is switching from
cotton to wheat production. “I think the fundamentals for cotton are very
strong,” she said.
US market statistics show rising levels of speculative activity in the soft
commodities. “Most of these commodities are seeing strong growth in hot
money interest. The fundamentals are so compelling,” said Ms Unnikrishnan.
Many food commodities remain as much as 50 per cent off their peak prices,
despite recent gains.
Moreover, the soft commodities can move in a countercyclical direction, Mr
Bond said.
Fear of recession sent oil falling by a dollar yesterday after an initial
bounce caused by comments on Thursday from Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the
Federal Reserve, who promised “substantial action” from central banks to
head off a downturn. At $93 per barrel, the US light crude futures contract
is off 7 per cent from its milestone of $100 on January 3.
However, gold and platinum yesterday reached records of $898 and $1,568 per
ounce respectively. On Tuesday, US soybean futures reached a record of
$13.06 per bushel.
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Gold is not a save haven. Those who bought gold at $800 in the early 1980s and held it took a terrible financial beating. Not only has the buying power of the original $800 fallen 10 fold to $80 there were no dividends. My rule of thumb is when the popular press toots an investment, it's usually a dog the big financial dogs are trying to unload.
MARK KLEIN, M.D., OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA
Speculators will always want to make money.I agree with the last comment which is why the BOE should not cut interest rates.People are speculating that they will which is why the pound is falling.If the thought the bank was independent,the pound would be higher and,hence,oil would be cheaper in the UK.
stephen hulton, eure, france
If the Fed cuts interest rates Speculators are bound to drive up commodity prices - oil and other essentials
TomTom, Leeds, England