Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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Britain’s reliance on the financial sector as an engine for the economy has left it more exposed than most other leading economies to fallout from money market turmoil and the global credit squeeze, the World Economic Forum said today.
Challenges to global prospects this year from a slate of economic and political risks are the most severe the world has faced in a decade, with dangers from global financial upheavals the most immediate and acute threat, the Forum finds.
In a bleak analysis that raises fears over the serious risk that the credit squeeze could trigger a US recession, the WEF’s annual Global Risks report also emphasises that Britain may also bear the brunt of the growing repercussions.
“In Europe, the prominence of the UK’s financial sector makes it vulnerable,” it notes.
The wave of turmoil that has engulfed world credit markets since the US sub-prime home loans crisis began last summer has raised “fundamental questions over the vulnerabilities of the current model of financial markets”, the report’s authors conclude.
Although rapid market innovation, deregulation and increasingly complex financial instruments have may have made the system more resilient under normal conditions, the forum argues that not enough attention has been paid to the impact of serious stresses.
“Many would argue that the overall resilience of the global financial system will only become evident under conditions of severe stress over the next year,” it said. “The complexity and near-infinite feedback loops of the modern financial system have exposed it to a small risk of very large systemic shocks …
“Hence, we may be facing a paradox: while the financial system has been made more efficient and stable in normal times, it is also now more prone to excessive instability in really bad times.”
The authors urge a radical and swift re-examination of the global financial system’s operation by both policymakers and private sector institutions to seek ways to limit present and future dangers.
“New thinking may be urgently required,” they argue, calling for “increased public and private sector collaboration on stress testing, liquidity management, risk assessment and prevention”.
The report is set to form a key plank of the agenda for this month’s gathering of hundreds of world political and business leaders at the annual World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos.
It also highlights the security of future global food and energy supply, and the vulnerability of supply chains for distributing goods worldwide to serious disruptions, as among the crucial risks facing the world in coming years.
The forum cautioned world political leaders against neglecting critical but less immediate dangers such as climate change as they come under pressure to devote their attention to turbulent financial markets and geopolitical tensions.
Ignoring longer-term issues could simply make them even more intractable in future, it said. “Action to mitigate climate change, for example, may be put in danger should the world economy weaken substantially - even though many of the decisions which will shape the future path of the global climate will need to be made in the next five years.
“[Inaction] on long-term risks will only weaken the global capacity to manage future challenges.”
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During the house price boom years where interest rates were held low, house price inflation was massive, and every dodo could take out huge credit, who was criticising the policies? Certainly not all those making huge capital gains, at least on paper. Now the chickens are on their way back home, and you all want some miracle bail out.
The current problem with liquidity lies with the banks themselves, the MPC can move the interest rate around willy-nilly, but as long as the banks are sitting on their cash, there will be no economic improvement.
With greed, creative accounting and reckless lending the banks have got themselves into a big mess, and now THEY ALONE are dropping the rest of us into it. Don't look to the MPC and reduced interest rates to fix it. Even if the rate went to zero, I suspect the banks would just suck in the cheap credit, keep lending rates high and reducing only depositors' returns.
bob pounder, stevenage,
The genius of the City of London has always been to make money out of whatever financial turmoil is going on, in bad times as well as good.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
The problem is that after a decade of Mr Brown as the economic guru, there is not much business in the UK other that the financial sector earning revenues, and the fast expanding non-productive public sector squandering it like there was no tomorrow. Looks like 'tomorrow' is fast catching up with us.
Doug, Glasgow,
Warren Buffett in 2002 warned of the financial weapons of mass destruction and noted that mark-to-model could be looked on as mark-to-myth. The back room rocket scientists were supposed to be able to value these complex financial instruments. In reality these valuations were based on many parameters that are little more than educated guesses, especially in the case of mortgage backed assets which can last for 25 years. No one can accurately predict the situation six months ahead, let alone 25 years ahead. This all worked well before the Credit Crunch, as it allowed the financial institutions to grossly overvalue these assets. Now these institutions realise they can not quantify their positions, as they are sitting on billions of pounds worth of assets which can not be sold or even valued.
Keith, Ashford,
The UK has to wind down from £60bn MEW (Mortgage Equity Withdrawal), perhaps £50bn of finance revenue and a similar amount of credit card spending. This annual loss represents well over 10% of GDP and would put the UK into a severe recession, nay slump from which it may take a decade to stabilise. After that period I fear we would lose many of our talented people abroad. We could be left with an inefficient public sector and and cheap workshops for the more prosperous mainland Europe. How did people ignore the obvious for so long? Shame on Labour for leading our country to 10 years of waste.
Steve Marchant, Torquay, Devon
Wow you mean Brown's Miracle economy was built on sand? What good old Gordon failed to give tax breaks for Manufacturers but gave them to Tesco and the City?
No more boom and bust. Now there will just be a massive crash, mind you I'll bet I can get someone to reduce their asking price but 50% next year when I decide to buy a home.
Andrew, Exeter, Devon
I used to have a car with roll-up windows and nothing ever went wrong. Now I have one with lines of code that make the windows do all sorts of things...sometimes without me going near it. Result: The windows go down by themselves and give everything a good soaking.
What's this got to do with the price of bananas? Answer: Increasing complexity.
Regardless of what individual governments may like to tell us, they really are not in control of global finance.
And Britain, precisely because it is in the middle of an experiment (New Labour Project) we are most exposed. Thatcher helped to eliminate a great deal of manufacturing industry without replacing it, and unfortunately our biggest industry now is the NHS, which funnily enough we run with mass immigration. There is a great amount of froth and less and less substance in UK plc.
New Labour can continue to hide this until the financial wind blows all of their idiotic beliefs away. New Labour's Britain will be simply blown away.
joe, Berwickshire, Scotland
The problem is the accounting practices that allow the "smart money" boys to hide their failures off their balance sheets!
How long would it take for an individual to go bankrupt if he could hide his gambling losses off budget?
Paul Robbins, Alamosa, CO USA