David Smith, Economics Editor
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to The Sunday Times
PRESSURE is growing on the Bank of England to cut interest rates this week as gloom over the economy intensifies.
Two of Britain’s best-known economists, Patrick Minford and Tim Congdon, say the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) needs to slash rates to get the banking system working and head off a sharp downturn.
Minford, a professor at the Cardiff Business School and former adviser to Margaret Thatcher and the Treasury, called for an urgent 0.75 percentage point cut. He said the bank was being “irresponsible” in not acting already to “stabilise a fast-deteriorating situation” brought about by the sharp rise in money-market interest rates since summer.
Three-month Libor (London interbank offered rate), at which banks lend to each other, hit nearly 6.6% last week. “I regard the Bank’s behaviour as highly irresponsible, as I regard its behaviour in August and September as irresponsible and neglectful of a century of monetary teaching,” he said. “It is time for some sense to prevail.”
Congdon, founder of Lombard Street Research and now at the London School of Economics, is normally a “hawk” on interest rates. But he called for a half-point cut this week. “The Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority plainly don’t know what has hit them,” he said. “Restoration of banking normality is essential.”
The pressure for a rate cut comes as UK retailers face a crucial test of the strength of consumer demand in the run-up to Christmas.
Senior retail executives say this weekend — the first in December and coming immediately after many have been paid — will indicate if their hopes of decent trading over the festive period are to be fulfilled. Many are already offering steep discounts in the face of sluggish trade.
Three of London’s busiest shopping streets — Oxford, Regent and Bond streets — staged a “Super Saturday” yesterday, banning vehicles in an effort to attract more customers.
In America, there was growing evidence this weekend of the depth of the credit crisis. It emerged that the US Treasury department has begun a campaign to persuade banks to freeze interest rates on sub-prime loans that are due for renegotiation. Treasury officials estimate that 2m homeowners have sub-prime mortgages with cheap rates that could jump by one-third when the initial “teaser” rate runs out. Some estimates predict that about 500,000 families could lose their homes.
There was further gloom, too, over the financial fall-out from the sub-prime crisis on Wall Street. Moody’s, the credit-rating agency, said it was reviewing its rating of $65 billion worth of debt held by Citi, one of the world’s largest banks.
Minford and Congdon are not alone in calling for a UK rate cut. Two other members of the “shadow” MPC, which meets under the auspices of the Institute of Economic Affairs, also say Bank rate needs to fall by half a point this week.
Both Peter Spencer, economics adviser to the Ernst & Young Item Club, and Peter Warburton of Economic Perspectives, warn of the risks from the credit crisis. Another, John Greenwood of Invesco, calls for a quarter-point reduction, making it a 5-4 vote on the shadow MPC for a cut.
Despite the pressure, most analysts do not expect the Bank to cut this week because of inflation worries. A survey by Ideaglobal.com, the financial-research company, puts a probability of just under 40% of a cut from the present 5.75% level on Thursday.
According to Reuters, only 15 out of 56 City economists expect a rate cut this week, though 53 think the Bank will act before the end of the first quarter of next year.
Many in business want the Bank to announce a reduction in interest rates this week in order to head off falling business and consumer confidence.
David Kern, economics adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce, said the Bank had to act pre-emptively. “World economic gloom is worsening,” he said. “A small UK rate cut in December would help sustain business and consumer confidence, and ensure we are not talking ourselves into an unnecessary recession.”
The Engineering Employers’ Federation will report tomorrow that industry is still enjoying good demand, but that members are concerned about the outlook as the economy slows into the new year.
Martin Temple, its director-general, said: “The warning lights for the economy are now flashing amber and the Bank must stand ready to take swift and decisive action to arrest the possibility of a serious slowdown.”
The biggest gloom is in the City, where the credit crisis has been felt directly and where there will be peak-to-trough job losses of 10,000, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research. That would be smaller than the 35,000 jobs lost during the equity bear market from 2000 to 2003.
Last week Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, announced that the Bank will offer an exceptional £10 billion of extra funding to UK banking groups at its base rate of 5.75 per cent for five weeks
But some City firms see opportunities from the credit crunch.
Shore Capital, a quoted investment bank, is to raise its largest-ever fund to cash in on the turmoil. Confirmation of the £243m fund-raising could come this week.
Shore is understood have already signed up one investor, with Lehman Brothers, the American investment bank, having pledged $50m.
Analysts say Shore is likely to use the money to snap up financial assets on the cheap. “This is a good opportunity for bottom feeding,” one said.
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How amusing that the drug barons are calling for the junkies to has one last cheap fix.
Ed, London,
"wasnt there an article in the times about how interest rates should rise a few days ago?
joseph, london, "
Yes - in short they have not a clue what they are doing!
Paul, London, Canada
Spot on, Will!
Mervyn, London,
Don't be an idiot Will,
A rate cut would demolish the pound and only lead to more inflation and mayhem.
Austin Tassletine, Bristol, UK
The pressure on inflation at the moment is caused almost entirely by the cost of energy.. especially oil.
High Interest Rates do not affect this in the slightest, and indeed actually give even further inflationary pressures.. the BoE appears to be shooting itself in the foot.
It seems to be stuck in the mid 20th Century and should be taking more notice of "why" there is high inflation, instead of relying on traditional methods to fight the non traditional reasons.
Paul, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
I thought the whole purpose of the Bank of England was to control inflation. That is what they should focus on first.
Bob, Bristol,
This whole mess has been caused by a severe lack of prudence by both borrowers and lenders. Cutting interest rates will only delay the inevitable - and prolong the pain. We're gonna have a recession, and the sooner we get it over and done with the better.
Marko, Belfast, La La Land
So cutting interest rates is now the panacea to solve our problems on this side of the pond as well. Our problems are not going to go away until inflation is brought under control and we stop spending beyond our means. Unfortunately it will mean some pain but then excesses usually do bring that on.
Trevor Retsof, Birmingham, UK
The R word is on the doorstep and is coming to a community like yours unless the BofE get their act together FAST and cut rates by at least 2%. When Corporate profits slump, investment in business dries up, lay offs increase and unemployment spirals, stock market dives, pensions dive, property market slumps. Is this what the 'don't cut interest rates' crowd want?
Will, Lincoln, UK
wasnt there an article in the times about how interest rates should rise a few days ago?
joseph, london,
From a laymans perspective it simply appears that the banks have simply lent too money. The banks goal has been to lend as much money as possible to anyone who wants it, boosting mortgage ratios to historic highs of 5x or 6x. It has been assumed that interest rates are going to remain at the historic lows. How shortsighted was this? The government has allowed bankers, whose only vision is the size of their year end bonus, to steer the UK economy into a storm. The prudent amongst us are now going to pay for this irresponsible lending and borrowing. Time to move my savings out of Sterling.
k jirackova, Newcastle, Tyne and Wear
Inflation is always and everywhere the enemy and it is rising - until inflation begins to decline there is no scope for a cut in the interest rate.
Arnold Ward, Weybridge, Surrey, UK
EMPLOYMENT- A decrease in employment and / or increase in unemployment is the key indicator that the economy is going into reverse. Money must go around in a circle for an economy to function ie confidence to invest. The current credit crunch, spurned by the sub-prime market in the USA, has dented confidence in banks lending to each other. Subsequent lower mortgage approvals slow the UK housing market. Price falls of housing will affect Buy2let and Repo's Unemployment will increase due to a fall in activity in the UK's favorite asset, property / DIY. Watch the January employment figures. A rate cut in February is more likely as recession in the UK will be more evident after XMAS. Added to this is the accusation that UK politics has reached an all time low, due to sleaze allegations being investigated in to the funding of the UK Labour Party. Debt makes the world go round, but it ain't a bottomless pit. It has to be paid back one way or the other. I think it will be the other. :-(
Politico Bloggs, Swindon,
If my 12 year old son came home drunk one night (god forbid) and he had a raging hangover the next day. I would not help him by giving him lots of water etc. I would let him suffer all day so that the effects of his stupidness would be fresh in his mind when he thought about trying alcohol the next time. We are giving the foolish people their pain killers by cutting interest rates, when they should suffer and not be let off the hook. The government and the BoE haven' a clue what to do. The problem is that the government gave the BoE supposed autonomy but as we ar coming up to an election the gov. are putting pressure of the BoE to maintan votes. I think it's too late anyway. Labour are on the way out.
david, madrid,
The BOE should keep a tight rein on interests. There has to be a correction and its better that we swallowed the bitter pill now, than take short term measures. Lowering interest rates will again kick start the housing market and lead to higher prices and less affordability.
Hamad Lone, London, England
In the past, when banks \ investors made bad investments, they bore the pain of their losses. Now when those same banks \ investors make more mistakes, central banks (e.g Federal Reserve) rush to cut interest rates or even rush to lend them money at rates below LIBOR - they call it injecting liquidity into the system. No lessons will be learnt. Following the 1997-8 crisis interest rates were slashed, which created the dot com bubble, which burst in 2000-1. So interest rates were cut (in the US to a foolish 1%) and that created the housing bubble, which has now burst. Now a new bubble in oil, gold and commodities is being created through
cheaper money.
Zoe Craven, Glasgow, UK
When will the UK ever wake up and realise that the cheap credit inflationary boom fed by housing market bubble is similar to hard drugs..... The general public are going to face a period of 'cold turkey'. Dropping interest rates would only have the effect of prolonging the eventual decline in growth. Infact publishing articles like does not help the situation either.
Arthur, Penzance, UK
Mr Minford is calling for a 0.75% cut in rates and Mr Congdon is calling for a 0.5 % cut in rates. Doubtless some other biased expert is calling for a 0.25% cut.
Mr Singlehurst, (that is me,) is calling for rates to stay the same.
Some pain now will avoid greater pain tomorrow.
I hope the MPC have some courage.This is needed right now.
nic, royan, france
Interest rates aren't high enough! RPI is nearly 5% and my girlfriend ( a nurse ) just got a 1.9% pay rise, quite a large pay cut in real terms. Apparently the food bill for the average family is up £750 per year, diesel for my car is up 15% in just a few months, inflation is setting in and this must be avoided at all costs. I want to see interest rates rise to get inflation back in line. The credit markets are frozen because of over zealous lending by financial institutions, it was obvious house prices were in a bubble and grossly overvalued and yet banks kept throwing money at people to buy them. This is not a reason to bail them out with base rate cuts. We have to accept that such large booms are always followed by bust and take the medicine. It will bring a lot of good to a lot of people - those that were priced out of the housing market for example.
Richard, Poole, UK
Even if the MPC looses the plot and reduces the base rate, there is no obligation to pass it on borrowers, it will be the depositors who get hit first.
I also disagree with the premise that a reduction in interest rates will, "get the banking system working". This is presumably a reference to the "credit crunch", which has happened because banks are not as willing to lend money willy-nilly. Why should the current air of well-justified caution change if the interest rates are reduced?
Inflation is the enemy. If the cost of living inflation had been rising at the rate of house price inflation, then I doubt whether there would be many people calling for a decrease in interest rates.
It's time to reign in the credit, encourage saving and keep inflation at the MPC target of 2%, which it has failed to do for the last two years.
Dick Parsons, Stevenage,
So the banks what a lower lending rate, yet they are pushing up lending for the public, another point unnecessary recession, i think we need it, people have taken out more than what they can afford and now lower the rates what happens next time? keep lowering the rates untill it hit zero and the amount of debt has gone thur the roof? keep house prices higher people taking out 20x or greater.
What signal are these guys sending out oh the boe will save us, the longer house prices rise the worse it will be for our economy in the long run, surely they must see this.
Are they going to pay wages to match house prices? or will companies just shift to other cheaper countries and employment drops like a ton of bricks.
mike, london,
A lot of you dont understand econmonics. If a cut in rates leads to loss of control of inflation expect to loose your life over it. A bit of pain now will do no one any harm. If growth drops 1% it will be good for the economy and give it some breathing space. Bankers are simply putting pressure for rate cuts so that they can collect nice bonuses at year end. The days of big bonuses are over.
des, Birmingham, UK
Mr Minford seems to be pro-market, so I assume that includes helping financial markets. I am not sure what part of the 1980s he was advising the Tories, but was it during the period when Thatcher had a break up with Lawson because of the exchange rate and interest rates?
We then had a surge in inflation. Did Mr Minford have anything to do with that? Living in an ivory tower and writing books that are probably politically motivated does not make one an authority on the global inflationary impact of rising demand in Asia.
There is a debate about the potential impotence of monetary policy when financial markets have been using all these innovations to make their own liquidity. There has been no century of monetarist thought on this and even the market participants are clueless on what they are holding (one of the main problems right now).
Why should the BoE loosen policy when there is nothing certain. Will interest rates cuts make a difference if everyone is still scared?
Raj, London, UK
Rate cut of 0.75%? That is a ridiculous idea. Encouraging banks to flood the market with cheaper money all over again will only make things worse in the long term, and we will be back to another credit crunch in two years time. Rates need to stay static, if not rise, so that the economy can find its feet and return to some sense of normality.
Gordon Brown, after his famous speech in 1997 when he said he would not allow house prices to rise out of control, has presided over the biggest housing boom in modern times. We need a steep correction in house prices, probably 35%, before the economy can begin to grow again. Anything less than that will fail to provide the UK with the wake-up medicine it desperately needs.
Lawrence Wilson, Bristol, UK