Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter
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House prices in London dropped at their fastest pace in more than two years in October sparking fears that a serious housing slowdown will spread from the nation's capital in the year ahead.
The Land Registry, the most comprehensive source of house price data, said today that house prices fell by 0.6 per cent in October in London.
While price rises in most other regions of England and Wales helped the overall average increase by an anaemic 0.1 per cent, the sharp drop in London set warning bells ringing as the capital's property market usually plots a course for the rest of the country.
October's decline was the first monthly fall since April 2006 and the sharpest such drop since August 2005, the Land Registry figures revealed.
Prices were up by 8.1 per cent over the year, the Land Registry said, the slowest rate of property inflation since last December.
While the authority's data are more comprehensive than other surveys, they are also less timely as they refer to the price of properties at the point of completion.
Analysts' attention will now be focused on tomorrow's survey from Nationwide detailing prices at the point of exchange in November.
The report is expected to point to a sharp decline in the annual rate of house price inflation, to 8.5 per cent in November from 9.7 per cent the month before on its figures.
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Property will reward shrewd investors for years to come - at the expense of those who think they are shrewd but actually just happened to buy in a rising market.
Markets are as much driven by psychology as conventional economics. While true that money is tightening, greed and fear will compound a modest correction in to a crash - in the same way that greed and fear (of not getting on the ladder) helped drive the market to unrealistic levels.
Markets will correct, the hordes of bandwaggon buy-to-letters will jump ship, prices will go below fair value and the smart money sitting in deposit accounts will snap up the spoils for the long term.
Fundamentals remain unchanged - demand for housing will continue to outweigh supply despite government initiatives. Life expectancy is on the up - not helping the supply side.
The current correction will serve only to accelerate the shift from home owning to home renting. The few will own, the masses will rent.
Steve, Essex,
All this panic about London and the South East of England yet again !! Most of us do not live in London or the surrounding area !!! What they should be worried about is the possibility of central London flooding in about 20 years time, how many billion would that wipe out ??
LJS, edinburgh, Scotland
Well if Croesus from Cornwal says that his or her's credit line has been doubled then there is very little for the other 60 million of us to worry about in the UK. Thanks goodness for that....phew!!
Everything is going to be A-ok now let's celebrate by buying even more cheap imports!!
BradleyB, London, UK
The "experts" have got it wrong. Prices are dictated by supply and demand. Sure, many people will find themselves unable to afford their mortgages, and may have their houses reposessed, but there will always be someone waiting to snap it up! The people who lose their homes still have to live somewhere, so the demand for houses is not going down. Someone I know in my city has slowly built himself a portfolio of 300 houses to let, and he is continually looking for some more. His mate has more than him. The buy-to-let market is keeping demand hot.
Chuck, Bristol, UK
excuse me, but a crash will not just hurt those who have been greedy. it will hurt those who bought property near the peak of the market and who will be forced to sell in the short-term. to categorise all of these people as greedy, speculating buyers-to-let or some other "evil" group is simply ridiculous. it is far more likely that those who suddenly find themselves with negative equity and no income will be at the poor end of society.
and the truth is that these people will be paying the price for the profligacy of lenders, not for their own greed. the banks have a duty to lend to creditworthy borrowers. that they will pull their horns in is merely a sign of their own inadequacy.
jem, london, uk
So, if there's a credit crunch, how come my credit card lenders have all just doubled my credit limit without me even needing, asking for or wanting that?
Croesus, Lostwithiel, Cornwall
there are so many dreamers out there. Dreaming that there is going to be a 'massive crash' throughout the UK. It would take a full-scale recession for this to happen, and that isn't what we are looking at currently. Foreign cash is rolling into London, and there is a shortage of housing. Expect a couple of years of almost zero growth, then slow rises to re-commence. The credit crunch is not severe enough to trigger the collapse of the UK housing market. If you paid silly money for a poor property, of-course, this could be a different storey.
nicky, london,
Hooray! Abot time too! House affordability (including moving up the ladder) will become easier. And if the last housing crisis of the early 90's is anything to go by, those with negative equity can just hand their keys back and start again (if they have to move).
Jonathan, sunbury,
Er, 0.6% drop is a "slump"? Hmmmm. Might just wait a bit before I throw myself off Tower Bridge. Come on guys, lighten up. Bernanke is about to cut the Fed rate, BoE will follow suit, bonuses will be HIGHER this year than the record highs last year. All looks rosy to me.
Gareth, London,
Exactly jb of gloucester.
So the other 49.4% reduction will be spread over the next 2 - 3 years I suppose.
Pete Balchin, Solicitor , Bristol, UK
It's obvious that some of the posters in denial have absolutely NO idea about economics. There is $300 billion of bad debt out there somewhere. Only $40 billion dollars of that debt is accounted for. No one is owning to to the rest. So, there is $240 billion dollars of rotten debt still held by the banks. Perhaps your bank. The banks are going to pull in the purse stings and not going to lend money to any Tom, Dick or Jane. And even if they do lend, the conditions will be perhaps 4x. Remember the early nineties when the banks got their hands burnt, they suddenly said 3x and that's it. House prices drop off a cliff. No, with less liquidity in the market, even if Joe Bloggs says his house is worth $400,000 because the fella down the road sold his dump for the same six months ago, it doesn't matter, People will not have the money to buy your house. The only option this fella has is to lower the price. Either that or he doesn't sell.
david, madrid,
Mrs A....... agree with your sentiment but surely
the solution to the problem is now unfolding before our eyes anyway! The unsustainable bubble is bursting and for many people it is good news. Generally, a crash will hurt most those who have been greedy and high interest rates will reward the prudent. So called 'in it for the long-term' buy to letters are like rats from a sinking ship and genuine first time buyers will pick up the spoils. My advice is to wait until the '08/'09 winter before looking at property again.
Nothing is selling in my area (and I really do mean nothing) and until people are realistic many thousands of properties will remain unsold. We saw the first round of reductions back in August/September and are actually seeing the second wave just now.
George, Wendover,
What we are seeing in the housing and wider financial markets are but mild indicators of what is to come; this situation reminds me of the cartoon characters who runs of a cliff but doesn't drop until he looks down. Interested parties in the property market are that man.Banks haveand will continue to take big hits on their balance sheets and will have to pay to repair them i.e. citi paying 11%! who, if not their customers, will pick up that tab?
Tourism and manufacturing in EU will be under more pressure viz $2 ice cream and that puts British jobs at risk, hey presto - downward spiral.
David, Sevenoaks, Kent
The solution is simple, the government needs to build on brownfield sites themselves and sell the houses at cost price i.e a semi for say £70,000. Also corrupt housing associations that purchase houses at cost from a developer and then sell it to key workers for double on a 50% share basis should be scrapped.
D Jones, Blackpool, Lancashire
A common misconception that people seem to have here is that they will still be able to borrow the same amounts next year as they could last year. The problem is that banks are going to tighten their lending criteria and raise the rates they charge you to borrow. This makes current house prices less affordable. That is why it is called a credit crunch. Add to that less credit for consumer discretionary spending and the economy is about to take a knock too. It is funny to hear people talking about the credit crunch that happened in August. It started in August and is just getting into second gear now. It is going to keep getting worse as house prices fall until all the bad debt sloshing around the economy is bled out. This will take years.
Edward, London,
As an estate agent for a prominent London agency, I can assure you that the bubble bust is near. Properties in both high and low end all over London are sitting without offers and no prospects in sight.
I don't mean to sound all gloom and doom, but we are advising all sellers that they need to lower prices and entertain lower offers.
G. Howard, London,
some people appear desperate for a crash. I suspect they may be disappointed.
the market seems remarkably resistant to all talk of a crash. come the spring, buyers will be offering over asking price again, you can be sure.
jem, london, uk
The media feed it all and start the panic. If the market stabilises for a bit - that's surely a good thing? Brakes on the ridiculous rise in house inflation should be welcomed.
Stop 'Over reporting': It's puerile and below the standards we expect from The Times.
Elizabeth , Sydney, Australia
For all you bubble denialists, if there was a mismatch between supply and demand in the UK market (what many cite as the drive of price growth) then surely rent price inflation would have been just as high... ...the thought that my Polish cleaner is feeding in to house price growth is nonsense. And for Bob, who talks about prices needing to drop 1% every month: You clearly understand nothing about leverage, or how to value a house. I have rented the same appartment in Holland Park for the last 3 year - to buy the same appartment 3 blocks down would cost me over 2x as much a month for anINTEREST ONLY mortgage than I pay in Rent ... and my rent is "market normal". Yet the house price evangalists who believe houses are fairly priced would have me believe I would be better "renting" from bank for 25 years, than renting from my landlord for 1 year at a time...
Edward J, London,
Why do so many people have difficulty spelling "losers" correctly.
Even The Sun had a massive headline calling McClaren a "Looser" the other day, to my total disgust. Ridiculous.
Loose = the opposite of "tight".
House prices have boomed for the past 20 years + whilst many have taken on massive personal debt. People now are afraid of just a single digit fall.
For the overextended, there are people out there loaded with cash just ready to rip your property owning beating hearts out when price really fall and you are forced to sell at really distressed prices.
David S, manchester, uk
It was only a matter of time before this massive pyramid scheme started to collapse. There's a lot more pain to come. Is it any surprise really when the "friendly" Northern Rock and their ilk were lending 125%, or 6 times income multiples, to "help" people onto the property ladder. Inflating prices and extending this vicious circle. People have ran like sheep to the top of the cliff believing property was a never ending stream of easy money for no work.
Simple stupidity and greed, nothing else.
Scott, Aberdeen,
Why oh why do we talk ourselves into a property crisis, the massive gains in house prices over recent years will easily cover most home owners and actually the price of property only becomes an issue if you move!
Those that have been 'greedy' and taken on large mortgages in the buy to let sector will learn the hard way that the property market is like any other market changes up and 'down'.
The current crisis is largely driven by the media loving the doom and gloom misery to everyone story. I don't recall a news story that said what a great investment property has been over recent years.
Try to talk it down but I reassure you that the 'green shoots' of recovery will be round the corner and the media will move on and grasp another doom and gloom story to follow.
A friend of mine sold up around 1998 based on similar press reports thinking he would avoid a crash in prices he is now unable to purchase a property at all as the prices are too high.
George, Milton Keynes,
This IS normal. The last ten years have been the aberration. We will now return to a normal multiple of house prices to average income. About time!
Rachel, London,
its not a surprise this... the uk is mostly bankrupt.
these sub prime houses are going to have to be written down to 50p in the pound very soon not a nice place when you got a million mortgage debt
jon, London,
The property prices have made England look ridiculous to many people in this world and of course this governments lack of immigration control further bears out that thought. I was reading the comments of an Englishman who has moved to the USA and the property he had bought there which would have cost £4 to 5 million pounds in this country cost him just $250,000 dollars I honestly believe tha\t some of the creatures in the animal kingdom could run this country better. Lets hope the collapse of the housing market occurs sooner than later though I pity the losers.
robinson, Eastbourne, east sussex
I purchased a house at good price but between rates upkeep bills its a better alternative to rent let someone else have headache on one side you have government trying to sqeeze your equity from you in stealth taxes over years so all hard work is for nothing. I might as well be like other loosers work less and spend all my time in pub. Hmm that seems like a good idea ..bye
Mr C, Belfast , Ireland
Bob, London - you're clearly not old enough to remember prices going down not just every month for 1 year but every month for a number of years - in the early 90's. I don't believe we were living under communism then - correct me if I am wrong. The fact is capitalism works in cycles - we have just reached (well, actually just passed) the peak of the current cycle, and now the falls will gather pace.
Gordon Tony, London,
House prices in London have been ridiculous for over 10 years now, well ever since Labour came into power anyway!
A 'correction' or crash is not at all bad if you are a first time buyer- every cloud as a silver lining I suppose!
Hopefully the buy-to-let market will dwindle down to acceptable levels again- to have over 60% of new homes brought by speculative investors is just plain stupid- and greedy.
Derek Pickard, SAWSTON, cambridgeshire
oh yes, rather than buy my own house I'd prefer to waste my money paying for someone else to keep theirs! LOL! This is actually a great time to buy because you can bargain hard and only those with top quality credit will get mortgages so there's less competition. Prices will need to go down EVERY month for the next 12 months for it to be worthwhile to rent and that ain't happening as long as the capitalist system keeps surviving...
Bob, London,
'Going to suffer'......'going'.....where have you been Mrs A?
Mr D.Jected, Hove, England
Typical government tactics to give the impression the housing market is slowing down but its actually increasing due to several factors;
1) To Let
2) First Time Buyers
3) Migrant Workers
4) Insufficient Affordable Homes
Until the government addresses these factors the spin from papers faceless government organisations deserve contempt.
Unravelling From The Spinning, Birmingham, England
Mrs A - I share your concern, but the solution has already been found. Our houses are 50% overvalued, fed by hysterical fear of being left off the property ladder.
Now that the market has reversed there is no reason for people to hurry, and hence no queue of buyers for every property. This will drive prices down, further reducing the number of buyers. This vicious circle will not stop until prices look cheap compared with the long run average - ie when the 50% overvaluation has disappeared. This is happening in the USA, hence the $3 trillion of negative equity feared by Morgan Stanley.
the ginger ninja, Birmingham, UK
Slump! really 0.6% end of the world..........
jb, gloucester,
Mrs A,
There is really no need to worry about first time buyers, in 12 months time they will find that they can buy a lot more for there money. Or perhaps the prudent will wait another year, for the real bottom.
The housing party is over, its time now for the tears.
I think only the misinformed or the plain stupid would carry on their thoughts of buying property. I've read that prorty drop-outs have double this year. Its not hard to see why most people would get cold feet. Who could blame them!
Michael, Uxbridge, UK
John Jay - this crisis is far from over and it is going to play out in the finaancial world for some time to come, gradually spilling over into the real economy. Sentiment has shifted, half of the mortgage market has closed and the idea of a couple of months of low activity followed by a return to normal is a little far fetched.
PJ, London,
What's the problem...? Bearing in mind that Northern Rock's street-cred' bottomed-out in mid-September - (contaminating most other major British lenders in the process - with millions of anxious savers on pavements up and down the country queuing to demand their investments back) - surely it's hardly surprising that buying was somewhat low in October, is it...?
Just so long as the crisis really is over things should get back to normal - i.e., at least level out - by the new year...!
John Jay, Walton on Thames, UK
About time and may the reductons continue because you'd have to be a world class fool to purchase a new house in the next couple of years.
mark, London,
Interesting to read this in the last paragraph.
"price inflation, to 8.5 per cent in November from 9.7 per cent the month before"
this is more than double what the Govenerment says is UK inflation. I know they dont include this in their numbers but surely they have to be very worried when inflation of such a key asset is so high.
The younger generation of first time buyers are going to suffer badly unless a solution is found.
Mrs A, London,