Gary Duncan, Economics Editor and Gabriel Rozenberg
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Interest rates are set to be cut at least twice by next summer — and up to three times next year — to stave off a sharp downturn in the economy, the Bank of England signalled yesterday.
In its gloomiest view of prospects since 2001, the Bank sounded a warning that, even after these likely cuts in rates, growth is still set to suffer a severe setback next year, triggered by past rate increases and the mounting impact of the global credit crunch.
But Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank, issued a clear signal that it is now poised to reduce rates to shore up growth as dearer loan costs sparked by the credit crisis, a rapidly weakening housing market and a growing squeeze from soaring fuel and food prices all take a heavy toll on consumer spending and lead people to save more.
The Bank said that the economy would also be hit hard as growing nervousness, as well as more expensive borrowing for companies, led businesses to rein in investment plans, while the commercial property market faces a slump.
The downbeat Governor said that the Bank’s central view of the outlook for the economy “is for growth to slow sharply over the next year”, making clear that it will be on alert over big risks and uncertainties that could lead to a yet bleaker outcome.
In sharp downgrades to its forecasts, the Bank predicted that, compared with boom-like annual growth of more than 3 per cent in the third quarter, the faltering economy could slow to expand by less than 2 per cent at its weakest next summer.
Despite this steep slowdown, however, Mr King also made clear that the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is still wrestling with nagging anxieties over persistent inflationary pressures that are now being inflamed by record oil prices and the surging cost of food.
These continued inflation worries mean the timing of the Bank’s first rate cut is still uncertain. Economists predicted that it is likely to come by February, with a slim chance of a cut next month.
Three quarter-point cuts in base rate, taking these to 5 per cent, could eventually reduce monthly repayments on a typical £150,000 mortgage by £69, to £909. Two rate cuts would make such a mortgage cheaper by £47, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said.
But Mr King emphasised that when the MPC acts will depend on whether key economic figures quickly confirm the slowdown the Bank expects to see.
“There will be some difficult decisions in the months ahead,” he said.
He highlighted the dilemma inflicted on the Bank by the conflict between weakening growth and rising inflation that is being stoked by oil prices now close to all-time highs of $100 a barrel.
After figures this week showed that inflation last month jumped back above its 2 per cent target, the Bank is forecasting that pressures from fuel and food costs, and a falling pound, will lift it still higher during next year.
But the Bank’s view is that, without interest rate cuts, inflation will then tumble back to markedly below its target in early 2009 as a more severe economic slowdown sharply reduces price pressures.
Mr King said that while the Bank’s report pointed to what “looks like a very sharp slowdown”, it was “not that sharp”. But he admitted that “in the short run, undoubtedly, there is a risk . . . of a bigger downturn”.
He said that the Bank had believed that some slowdown was needed to quell inflation. The key question was whether “the slowing we are going to see bigger than we had wanted to see”.
Some experts argued that the Bank is still taking too rosy a view, especially over the impact on consumers of an end to the housing boom, as surveys show house price falls in many areas,
But playing down the effect of house prices on consumers, Mr King argued that there had so far been only “mixed signs” from the property market. “How far it goes remains to be seen,” he said.
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Having just come to the end of a 2 year fixed mortgage rate of 5.25% my provider has informed me that the new rate is to be 7.8%! or 3 month LIBOR + 1.5%. Their new deals are for existing customers only and offer no improvement. How long can these type of mortgage providers stay in business?
Rob, Amersham,
House prices are king.
Faced with their current dilemma, I find it hard to see that the BoE will drop rates yet. There appear to be significant regional differences - falls in house prices in Wales etc, whilst in my part of the south east, house prices remain firm, and sealed bids/over asking price sales are the rule. Perhaps an area not getting much press is the effect of immigration, which has driven growth, and kept wages (and hence inflation) down?
So where does that leave us? Presumably parts of the country will enter recession, whilst others could continue to inflate - which economy will the BoE manage? Obviously they will remain London and citycentric and manage the South East economy ensuring that we all have benefit of a full recession.
What is the answer? Some sort of mechanism for having differential interest rates in different parts of the country, say on 5 year basis? Regionally variable stamp duty? Otherwise I will batten down the hatches.
Simon, London,
I am quite happy if interest rates fall, I am currently letting out my flat in SE1, and prices seem to be doing well, and a decrease in rates will mean more profit. Do people really want an economic downturn? This could effect your employment, if any of you could remember the last recession. The Bank of England needs to control inflation, but it is far more important that they ensure we do not to end up in a state like the late 1980s.
Also it very hard for the Bank of England to control all the parts of inflation when many of the elements are outside their reach, for example the oil price, the cost of imported goods.
John, London, UK
is it not the banks fault in the first place? They are the ones constantly pushing everyone to take out huge loans and mortages, no one sells a house to make a loss! Then they turn around and decidde to cut rates on the fact that the UK people cant actually afford to buy anything as they are too busy cutting down their massive mortage bills and rate....
LB, Aberdeen, Scotland
Aren't low interest rates what got us into this mess in the first place? That and falling housing prices = Here we go again.
Guido, La Linea, Spain
I do not agree that it is the slightly higher interest rates that has been responsible for the problem in which we now find ourselves.
On the contrary, It has been the very low interest rates that has allowed people to borrow money so cheaply in the past that has created the absurdly high property prices and other financial difficulties. We need a correction to rectify this. No gain without pain! We will just find ourselves back to square one if we reduce rates.
pedro tam, london, UK
Neil, London. Surely the members of the monetary policy committee should have more professional and personal self-respect than to be used as political tools in this way. Either the BoE is independent, in which case it should have a major say in defining inflation, or it should throw the responsibility back to government so that we can all see that these are political decisions. As for 'spitting feathers' over the current announcement, my concern is not whether the BoE choose to raise or lower base rates, it's making statements which can be reported as forcasts for the year ahead. What's the point of regular monthly meetings, which can react to unexpected developments, if expectations are going to be set many months in advance? King may argue that he was reported out of context, but he should know by now to keep his lips tightly sealed. If reports of this type re-ignite property inflation and build the credit mountain even higher, we are in big trouble.
Clint, Staffs, UK
Is this "The Sun" or "The Times"? A completely misleading headline. Make no mistake about it...banks will not reduce their lending rate in the near future no matter what BoE do.
George, London,
Surely Mr King should not be allowed to make such comments in public as Banks, etc. will factor them in. Now what happens if things change next year, then we will have a knee jerk reaction if Mr King proves to be wrong which could be worse for the economy.
Sanjay Mazumder, Palmers Green, London, UK
Mrs Deeming,
Whilst I agree with your sentiment in some cases, it is near impossible to survive within your means on the average graduate starting salary (£14k - see Reform's IPOD report). The cost of house share rent, council tax, food, student loan repayments and public transport/petrol puts you above your salary in basics before you've even thought about fun money or saving for stamp duty and a house deposit. Even on £25k it isn't all rosy. Remember, our generation have not benefitted from the housing boom and are taxed more.
I think this is why some take a fatalistic approach and spend beyond their means in the hope that with promotion will come financial salvation. Personally, I've started my own business and am moving abroad next year instead.
anita, preston,
I would agree with Peter on this one, if the economy does crash then unemployment will be up and wage increases will plummet and also reduced demand will see inflation lower. The pound need to be lowered in order to help whatever is left of the UK manufacturing sector, just note how the US is allowing dollar devaluation order to reduce the trade deficit.
The next challenge is the lenders, they should not be allowed to create the next house price boom based on hot air. Must admit what a turnaround, as early as Aug 07 BoE were predicting higher rates.
Zak, London, UK
Irresponsible and misleading headline more suited to the red top tabloids. The bank is responsible for keeping inflation under control and as we all know the government does everything possible to fiddle the figures to the lowest possible. Inflation is already rampent and far above 2% in everyday living costs. The reality is the bank can have little influence on the causes of inflation, so better to prepare for interest rates remaining where they are or higher for quite some time to come.
John, Louth, UK
If they cut rates then they will devalue the currency and this in trun will cause inflation as well as inflation from consumers again overspending.
So Jackboy, be a bit careful about what you wish if you want any economy left after Prime Minister (Crash Gordon) Brown Unlect has finished with it. Interest Rates should sensibly be about 6.25% not the current 5.75%.
Oh and according to a recent Moneyweek article, as most of us know, middle class (read income?) inflation is running at about 7.1% already...
Jackboy, do you recall the romantic days of Red Robbo and pals ?
Pete Balchin, Solicitor , Bristol, UK
Jackboy, London. I thought that was what was being said. 'a downbeat govenour' etc. The economy has been mismanaged. Inflation figures have been seriously manipulated (especially by excluding property inflation), the UK is on the edge of a recession and its population is sitting on the biggest debt mountain ever. It might have escaped your notice, but the US has been experiencing a major property price downturn at the same time as cutting interest rates. On top of all of that, the BoE has failed to learn the vital lesson from Tony Blair, don't say or even hint at what you're going to do as you then lose the power to change your mind. Unless the BoE predicted the credit crunch and Northern Rock crisis and didn't bother telling anyone, it should shut up as its powers of prediction have been proven to be hopeless. If anyone is stupid enough to buy property now on the strength of King's 'hints', more fool them. Just watch him change his mind as some other unexpected event hits.
Clive, Chichester, UK
Victor M., Malaga. Be fair, the guy should be given some employment - sweeping floors is about right. I would keep the cash box locked up though, just in case he was tempted to invest some of it for me!
Clint, Staffs, UK
I find it amazing how these sort of articles always evoke an outpouring of scatter-gun vitriol aimed at anyone with any semblance of financial authority. The BOE is mandated with the difficult job of targeting a specific inflation rate over a lengthy time horizon by monitoring a huge number of parameters and to do so with one (blunt) policy tool - and nothing else. So quite why people are spitting feathers over their pensions, savings, other inflation rates etc is baffling. Save it for the government. Until the Bank's mandate changes to accommodate house prices, debt levels etc then it can only be judged by comparing its track record alongside its mandate.
Neil, London,
Completely agree with BS, Willerby from East Yorks. Just as the irresponible are about to get a wake up call the BoE presses the snooze button.
barry dupont, brighton, east sussex
So what makes mortgage-holders think that the banks will pass on rate cuts to them? The credit crunch is still here and most of the banks are losing money on all sides so the likelihood of them being in a position to provide cheap mortgages and liar loans again is very small.
This is pure spin to encourage people to keep on jumping into the market at high-risk prices.
MB, Edinburgh,
Spot on Tim. Add falling share prices...
Kara Swart, London, UK
So the hawks drove rates too high by 75 base boints. That's the message I am getting here. Is anyone going to say "sorry" and stand down? Actually I think the buzz word of Brown's Britain is "compensation". I'd like some now please.
Andrew Fanner, Cowplain, UK
Puzzled!
How can the BOE cut interest rates, thereby weakening sterling, increasing the costs of imports (which are the inevitable target of any increased spending) without causing more inflation?
John Maxwell, Skipton, UK
Maybe Jackboy should look in a little more depth at what is happening in the market rather than make silly remarks. Mortgage costs are increasing as the banks tighten credit, regardless of the BoE's moves, there's a large overhang of fixed to floating mortgages in the next 18 months and house prices in the US, Ireland, Spain and the Baltics are falling rapidly. So do you really think that the banks are going to start lending recklessly again just because the BoE cuts rates? Japan is probably in recession again, parts of Eastern Europe are imploding and China is starting to export inflation instead of deflation. The strength of the Euro is hurting European growth and oil is near $100. These are all facts, not forecasts. IF you really think that these facts will have no impact on the UK economy then you're in Dreamland. Whether its a mnor, moderate or major problem, nobody knows, but there's a problem.
Tim, London,
So, it looks like inflation will soar and savings will die. So much from prudence.
Steve, Penzance,
Is seems, once again, that people who spend recklessly have far more clout than those who don't. The message as ever is spend, spend, spend. The Government/BOE will look after you.
BS, Willerby, East Yorkshire, UK
What earthly use is a report worded in this way.
It is full of maybe's,could be's possibilities and conjectures one way or the other.
If he wants the pound to tumble then this report is guaranteed to be loved by currency speculators.
Bravo the borrowers,let's get house prices rising again.Poor owners finding that their house price is,at best,stagnant.What a shame!
Never mind the prudent saver. Naughty boy! Iit is his fault that business is hurting as he is not spending so much. Let's cut his interest so he has no incentive to save.
Of course inflation must continue to be understated.We don't want state pensions to rise too much.Also if we were honest there would be less talk of cutting interest and more of upping rates.
Mr King,you and the government are not a class act. Your problem is that you both find it impossible to tell the simple truth.
nic, Royan, France
The brilliant BOE deliberately advertising to the world their long term theories about UK interest rates falling thus depressing the value of the pound even further (now record lows against the Euro). I think these guys have some sort of 'death wish.' I wouldn't employ them to sweep my floors.
Victor M., Malaga, s
"Property investment haters", aka young people, Jackboy. A society that does not make adequate provision for it's younger generation is a society that is going to fail. And hopefully you'll still be around, dribbling in an old person's home, when that happens
Rachel, Edinburgh,
Er... Is the renewal of his position not coming under review shortly? This stance by King is weak and pandering directly to the Government.
The economic stability that this country has seen over the last 10 years has been driven by easy credit and low interest rates. It has resulted in over inflated property prices (which other than a few overpaid hedge fund managers and questionable Russian businessmen) no one else can afford. It has also resulted in huge levels of personal debt. Inflation is also rearing its head - look at RPI and not CPI. Given the total mismanagement of the economy over the last 10 years a recession was always on the cards. King should let it happen so that we can get it out of the way as fast as possible and hopefully without to much pain. All he is doing in cutting interest rates is storing up a bigger problem for later on!
IT, Surrey,
Interesting - maybe a certain high street bank could do with reading this article given they quoted an interest rate of over 15% (as opposed to their own advertised rate of around 8% and their competitors rates advertised rates of 6.5 - 7.1%) for a relatively small short term car loan yesterday.....
Puzzled, Niort, France
Even with a reduction to 5% our rate will still be 25 per cent higher than the euro rate of our competitors and definitely higher than the dollar rate which is going south. We'll still have by far the highest rates of a major western economy, and so don't expect plain sailing and a rosy future even with a 75 points cut. I fear that the BoE will cut too little too late to prevent a hard landing of the economy. And don't worry about inflation, the collapse in demand will see to that.
Peter, Lincoln, England
Where are all the comments from the property investor haters saying the banks wont reduce interest rates and everybody's gonna lose everything and the economy is gonna go into meltdown....
Maybe next time guys...
Jackboy, London,
Mary Mary quiet contrary how does your garden grow...
Robert Hexter, ex Notts, Vancouver BC
Inflation .. yea bring it on it might help to up my pay and reduce the real cost of my home loan/milstone
Andrew, truro, england
I find it very difficult to accept that people like us who have worked hard all their lives and not overspent by working within our budget should now pay by having reduced interest rates because people are not careful with their money and expect to be able to have what they want when they want even if they cannot afford it ! The old saying "Cur your coat according to your cloth springs to mind!"
Mrs B Deeming, Nuneaton, United Kingdom