Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent and Marcus Leroux
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China’s trade surplus has hit record heights amidst mounting pressure from the US and Europe for the Communist government to allow the yuan to strengthen.
The trade surplus for October was $27.1 billion according to data released today, bringing the accumulated surplus for the first ten months of the year to of $212.4 billion – a 59 per cent increase over the same period last year.
The record surplus, which would have been even greater had soaring oil prices not pushed up imports, comes as American, European and French delegations prepare to travel to Beijing to demand an appreciation of the yuan.
Nicolas Sarkozy, the President of France, due in Beijing in two weeks, said: “I will go to China and I will tell (them) they have such a spectacular success ... you don’t need to have a currency so devalued to succeed”.
Jean-Claude Trichet, Governor of the European Central Bank, and Hank Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, are set to follow Mr Sarkozy by leading delegations to China.
China’s record trade surplus will discomfit Mr Paulson, who, currency analysts believed, would have more leverage over Beijing than his predecessor John Snow, when he was appointed last May.
But Mr Paulson’s tenure has seen the dollar slump ten per cent against the pound and the euro and China mount an increasing trade surplus.
The dollar dipped sharply today to a low of 110.20 against the yen, sagging briefly into 109 yen territory. A few analysts predicted that the circumstances had now grown ripe for a bout of currency intervention by the Japanese authorities.
The confusion was deepened, said currency brokers, by an outburst from Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Nobutaka Machimura.
In a reversal of more than a decade of policy comments by the Japanese Government, its top spokesman announced that the strong yen was “basically good for Japan as a whole".
The spike in the yen sent stocks tumbling, as the Nikkei 225 Stock average closed down 2.5 per cent at a to a 15-month low of 15,197.09.
Today’s turmoil adds to the gloom already surrounding the Japanese economy. In a note, Henderson Global Investors said today: “Japan’s domestic economy seems set to go through a weak patch, though strong external demand may help prevent a full-blown recession”.
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The economic war that China has been engaged in over the last decade or so is finally coming to a conclusion. The Americans who seem to have thought that military might was more important have missed the boat. Their own fault in being parochial and inward looking. For the rest of us I don't think it will matter over the longterm whether BRIC is the driving force for growth rather than the US. As long as people making the effort to realign their thinking.
mike, Kuaal Lumpur, Malaysia
Simple. Impose huge duties on all non-essential Chinese goods especially where there is a near monopoly, such as in toys. Keep pushing up the duties. Dream up health and safety reasons why Chinese goods should not come into the EU. When the yuan renmimbi is allowed to float free off come these tariffs. Bleating about the exchange rate to the Chinese will do nothing.
Dave, Slough,
Dear Sir, the dollar seems to be slipping and has its ripple effects around the world. In India the stock markets are at a record high although this seeems very unusual and the market is clearly overpriced fuelling fears of an imminent meltdown. The rupeee too seeems to be going strong against the greenback. would like to read more stories on how the dollar effects various currencies especially those in Asia. Regards
kanishk Gupta, new delhi, india