Gary Duncan and Gabriel Rozenberg
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Fresh confirmation from Britain’s biggest mortgage lender that the house price boom is over failed to persuade the Bank of England to cut interest rates yesterday.
Halifax, the nation’s biggest mortgage lender, said that its latest survey showed house prices tumbled by 0.5 per cent last month. It followed a 0.6 per cent drop the previous month, the first time the lender has reported back-to-back falls for nearly 2½ years.
But the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, whose members have made clear their reluctance to be pushed into cutting rates against the backdrop of surging oil prices and strong growth, kept rates on hold at 5.75 per cent.
Yesterday’s Halifax report showed the annual rate of house price inflation dropping back into single figures, to 8.9 per cent from 10.7 per cent the previous month. Halifax said that headline annual figure was set to decline further as the strength of the market last year drops out of the equation.
If recent trends continue, prices would fall in real terms over the coming year, the data suggested. The quarter-on-quarter rate of growth was just 0.3 per cent, or 1.2 per cent in annualised terms, well below inflation.
Interest from new buyers in purchasing a house fell at its fastest pace for more than three years in September, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, while mortgage approvals, the key indicator of market activity, fell by 6 per cent.
Brigid O’Leary, of Capital Economics, said: “The data support our view that a sustained period of falling house prices is now in the offing.”
However, the MPC’s decision to peg rates for now was in line with City expectations. The pressure to cut them has mounted over the past month, amid increasing signs that the impact of five rate rises since August 2006 and the global credit crunch is set to see the economy slow by more than the Bank intended.
But the recent surge in oil prices, with US light crude climbing this week above $98 a barrel for the first time, highlights the nagging risk of a renewed burst of inflation.
Steep increases in the costs of other commodities, especially food, are stoking price pressures and the Bank is also likely to see a decline in the overall value of the pound over past weeks as reinforcing inflationary worries.
Sterling rose more than half a cent against the dollar after the Bank’s announcement and later climbed above $2.11, setting a 26-year high. However, the pound’s trade-weighted index, monitored closely by the MPC, is down by some 2 per cent since early August.
Despite yesterday’s vote, a majority of City economists still believe lower interest rates remain on the agenda for next year as the fallout from the credit crunch and effects from a weakening US economy are felt.
The Bank will make its position clear next week with the publication of its quarterly Inflation Report, its first since the seizure in global credit markets that began on August 9.
Although Britain’s economy grew at a buoyant 3.3 per cent in the third quarter, evidence that it is set to slow fairly sharply into 2008 has piled up in recent weeks. At the same time, inflation in September on the consumer prices index stood at only 1.8 per cent, below the MPC’s 2 per cent target.
Among signs that the economy is now coming off the boil, the past few days have seen official figures for manufacturing showing that the sector’s output succumbed to a 0.6 per cent drop in September. The same day, a key survey of the services sector, the engine room of the economy, pointed to an abrupt slowdown, with activity falling to its lowest since May 2003.
Signs that the housing slowdown is spilling over into the high street have grown. A snapshot of consumer sentiment showed households’ willingness to make “major purchases” at the lowest level since December 1995. The British Retail Consortium’s latest survey also showed that annual growth of “like-for-like” sales slowed to only 1 per cent in October, from 3 per cent in the previous month.
Ian McCafferty, the CBI’s chief economic adviser, said: “No change to interest rates was not unexpected as neither the outlook for inflation nor the economy clearly justified a cut.”
But the British Chambers of Commerce said it regretted the move, arguing that the Bank should prioritise limiting the risk of a significant economic downturn.
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History repeating? Is it my imagination or is there an uncanny resemblance leading up to Black Wednesday in 1992. With the dollar at its weakest level against both the pound and the Euro, the pound is seen as a safe haven. Whilst the Euro appears to be a one size fits all currency, we know this is not true. Just see the disagreements over voting rights with new member states. It is no coincidence is it? that the independence of the UK makes it a great place to earn interest for large deposits. So what you may say.
Even this week, US exports have climbed rapidly. Over time the Dollar will recover and when the US balance sheet begins to improve and the dollar looks more attractive, speculators will seize an opportunity to play the Euro, Pound and Dollar against one another for big rewards on repurchase. Will we see a repeat of 1992? Bye Bye, Darling and Labour. Of course, Labour will say parity has arrived for the UK to give up its currency and join the safety of the Euro.
Politico Bloggs, Swindon, England
The MPC along with the ECB and other major central banks should all be moderately lowering interest rates by 0.25% to0.5% in order to help the United States stabilize its currency and therefore minimise the risk of a global recession. So far governments seem to be treating the issue as the United States' problem. We live in a global economy and therefore central banks need to work together to prevent a US recession that would undoubtedly spread around the world.
Perhaps they should dig out their Economics text books and have a look at the causes of previous recessions and they might see the potential danger of the 'wait and see' policy.
Peter, Manchester,
Bubbles are bad? What are people going on about. This bubble is a very big one and has been around for circa 5 years now, I think it would have burst by now if it was going to. I can see us still having these 'arguments' in 10 years time if the market doesn't crash. One day soon people will realise that a crash in the housing market is no more imminent than a recession: we have historically really low interest rates, high employment and not enough houses to go round, perfect receipe for a crash - not.....
A final point to ponder on: these people who are looking forward to a so called crash in property prices - I wouldn't be too excited, if it did happen, our economy will take a real hammering, you could all lose your jobs as a result - still looking forward to a crash are we?
Ewan , sherborne, dorset
I am of the opinion that a rate decrease is due if not now shortly. The concerns are over increasing fuel costs to feed through the economy but surely between 2003 to 2005 there was a dramatic oil price increase but the interest rates were a lot lower then - so why the concern now - surely there must be other inflationary concerns that we are unaware of
Paul, Mayobridge,
and if we join the euro we alot worse off that for sure
James Lawton, pontefract, UK
As everybody writing in the national press should know, the house prices are NOT included in the inflation rate calculation and so are NOT considered by the MPC.
Somehow there still seems to be the major misunderstanding that the Bank of England should solely consider house prices and keep the prices moving upwards at a rate exceeding the escape velocity from the earth's gravity.
I reckon the interest rate should be put up to double figures causing the Pound to rise and so reduce the price of imports and encourage people to save money and not borrow borrow borrow.
Bob Punder, Stevenage,
You'd think supposed professional business journalists would be aware that house prices are not within the BOE's remit. That headline is an embarrassment to both Gary Duncan and Gabriel Rozenberg
PT, Tynemouth, UK
I was lead to believe that governments had reduced their
tax take on fuel and what we are seeing is the corporation
cleaning up.
As for housing, its a dilemma in always. Mr king should not
be influenced by the propaganda put out by the housing
industry, neither should the goverment. There are two
different housing markets. The one thats making money
in a growing economy and then theres the one that the
propagandists want you to believe.
So your only getting 8% growth.... where's the crisis ?
If there are growing concerns around the credit crunch
maybe that will mean a bigger portfolio for the equity co.
Economics, usually does the last thing you think of.
M walker, Bromsgrove, worcs
I'm not sure you can "tumble" by 0.5%.
Walter Ellis, New York, USA
The BoE has no mandate over the house prices.
Asset prices are not part of the inflation indicators the Bank manages.
Stop crying for 0.5% house price drops!
how about the 100% house price gains for the past 3 years!!!!
Michele, Richmond,
The BOE will pay no attention to house prices.It is not what they are there for.There aim is to keep a so-called inflation target between 1 and 3%.They will let house prices fall just as easily as they allowed them to rise.You have been warned.
Stephen Hulton, Eure, France
The problem facing the Bank is that, if Britain's economy starts to underperform because of the 'high' interest rates we are currently experiencing, sterling may well start to weaken against the dollar and euro. This will have an inflationary impact (eg a $100 barrel of oil will, in sterling terms, become more expensive etc etc). Thus the bank will be forced to increase interest rates further to meet its one target (which is to remain within 1% of the 2% inflation rate), which will exacerbate the situation.
Outcome: Stagflation.
Tommyc, Harpenden, Herts
The treasury make tax windfalls of several millions every time fuel prices go up, therefore they should reduce fuel duty, which in turn will ease inflationary pressues. Surely common sense should prevail, not total inaction which infuriates taxpayers and simply results in opportunistic gains for the government.
steve hope, fernhill heath, worcester
The Bank of England (BOE) should be applauded for showing its independence and not being swayed by market sentiment. Inflation, not recession - an inevitable consequence of 10 years of Labour Government encouraging everyone to live on debt - is the real problem.Some inflation from increased demand for commodities is inevtitable as the developing nations expand. This could be made a whole lot worse if we had a lax monetary policy and the pound was allowed to depreciate like the dollar. In fact, I see the start of stagflation in the US and we are in real danger of having the same over here. We have mised our opportunity to join the Euro and we are now in for a rocky currency ride.
Steve Marchant, Torquay, Devon
Not gloom, but joy and relief for many of us. Repeat after me "bubbles are bad" and "irrational exuberance is bad"
Davie P, London,
It was a wise decision.Anything else would have been irresponsible.
To use the word "tumbled "when saying house prices dropped 0.5% last month is stupid. It is an emotive word and not appropriate.
You can bet your last pound that given the price of oil and basic commodities,inflation is going to jump over the next few months,and the case for upping rates will be very strong.
Oh yes,and by inflation I mean true inflation and not the doctored figures officialy given ,which are dishonestly low.
Some people will get hurt.It can not be avoided.
nic, Royan, France