Gary Duncan: Analysis
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to The Sunday Times
A long shadow of economic gloom hangs over the impending Thanksgiving jollities. Across the United States, millions are approaching the holiday in a state of high anxiety, fearful over a deepening housing slump that threatens to plunge a once booming economy into a recession.
As conditions in the stricken US housing market have turned from bad to dire, so America’s mood has soured. With grim news this week that typical house prices are down 5 per cent from a year ago in their steepest fall since 1991, Americans may be wondering whether the darker backdrop of the Hallowe’en holiday just past is a more appropriate symbol for their country’s condition than the lighter tones of Thanksgiving.
Now, national woes over housing are being compounded by misery over record oil prices. The cost of fuel for US motorists is up by a quarter from a year ago, and the average home heating bill is set to double this winter thanks to dearer energy. Little wonder that Americans’ spirits have caught a nasty chill. In the past three months, consumer confidence has tumbled to levels lower than even those plumbed after the Black Monday shares crash in 1987.
Yet as chatter about recession around America’s breakfast tables grows louder, economists are split over how great the risk of a severe downturn next year really is. Most still foresee only a marked slowdown rather than anything worse.
This past week also brought some comfort from a stronger than expected performance for US growth in the third quarter – the best seen for a year-and-a-half. Yesterday brought good news, too, from the jobs market, as employers took on twice as many staff as expected last month.
Three key factors will now be crucial in determining how bad things become in the world’s biggest economy. The multibillion-dollar question is how severe a knock consumer spending, the driving force of US growth, takes from the double whammy of the housing slump and soaring fuel bills.
The blow is certain to be hard. Just how hard, though, will partly depend on how well Americans’ usually resilient confidence holds up. Hallowe’en has passed, but the extent of fear over personal and economic fortunes will be critical. The remaining two factors will play a big role in settling that.
First, does the credit squeeze in the financial markets persist, or get worse, so that banks become much less willing to finance the borrowing that pays for Americans’ high-spending habits.
Secondly, how far and fast can the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to shore-up confidence, incomes and spending power. A big worry is that the Fed’s scope to act will be hampered by its serious worries over the extra inflationary threat being created by the leap in oil prices, and a slumping dollar.
Amid all the uncertainty, what is beyond doubt is that the danger of a deep US downturn is greater now than for a long time. Americans will have much to give thanks for if they can escape that painful fate.
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It is a sad indictment of our Western political leaders that they have led us this sorry dance in order to sustain the unsustainable. The debt overhang will be with us for years but we must start working an action plan to rebuild our Western economies with high tech, high efficiency public services so that we can maintain our standards of living. We need a Marshall plan for the US and Europe, but who is brave enough to take the lead?
Steve Marchant, Torquay, Devon
The chickens are coming home to roost and we are reaping what we have sown. Age old wisdom explains it all.
Alex Doty, London, UK
I wonder how quickly these threats to the USA and Global economy (on the back seat of the tandem, as it were) would recede, if the profits and future seed capital of the American economy were not being syphoned off to pay for the war in
Iraq-Iran and Afghanistan and elsewhere around the world.
The objective of terrorism seems to be to weaken Gulliver
so much, tying him down in so many directions fighting the flames
of war, that he (Gulliver) has no energy left to fuel his
own body!!!!
McGahon, Dublin, Ireland
What is with defensive americans on this site?
And by the way...you americans that think you made 'one of ou better decisions to defend he UK' ..please check your history book...Germany decalred war on the US weeks after pearl harbour not the other way round....
Keith West, London,
there is nothing good about punishment. suffering is good for nobody, even the greedy. but economic cycles are postponable but not unavoidable. this down turn will be ugly.
jose, victoria, bc, canada
The irrational hate for President Bush is humorous--you people would blame Bush starting the Vietnam War if you could.
Guess what, America could care less what the Europeans think of the America. That America has protected you Europeans for all of these years makes me think that we must be idiots.
The housing mess is not the fault of Bush but its impact will be felt in this country for years to come. And it will have an impact on the world economic markets, too. So let's all just relax and enjoy the train wreck.
George B, Los Angeles, California
All the American conservatives on here need to suck-it-up and keep your mouths shut. You know that this is all part of the Republican âsurvival of the fittestâ plan. You've all been voting Republican for 40+ years now in order to âget even with those peopleâ. You're almost THERE. Donât give up now. Your house is a MINOR cost when looking at the big picture.
John, Sacramento, ca
Those relishing the housing crash might be envious but that doesn't make the crash any less real.
We bitter renters got sick of hearing about your unsustainable appreciation and how we "missed the boat". Now we get to watch many scramble for the exits. Ah, but it's too late.
It's good to see greed punished. Very good, indeed.
Dino Cazzo, Anytown, USA
Halloween was great. Thanksgiving will be better.
Its fascinating to see these sidewaik supervisors telling us we are going down the economic gurgler. This is a 10 trillion dollar mortgage market with 14 trillion in equity. About 2.6% of all mortgages are between 30 and 90 days late and .069% of all housing stick is in foreclosure. These are rounding errors, though sadly more personal for the over indebted.
Transactions are down about half, but real values are only off 6% on average after a compounding average run up of plus 100% over the last five years. A house with an 80% mortgage is still delivering five times the return of the S&P or FTSE.
Wishful thinking of the obviously envious indeed, coupled with a classic case of "English disease."
Andrew Waite, Phoenix USA
Andrew Waite, Phoenix, AZ USA
People forget 2.5 trillion dollars was wiped out in 2001-2002 in the net/tech boom bust and with inflation that would approach 3 trillion in todays dollars. Big banks are talking about setting aside a low-ball 100 billion dollar, or less, rescue fund for the sub-prime mortgage mess. Even if it turns out to be 10 times that size with all the intermixed leverage and insurance swap products, that would still only be a third the size of the net/tech bust. Clearly the US survived that handily even at the cost of many workers pensions etc.. This time the main difference this time is some low to mid income people will lose their homes instead of their pensions. You can make the argument, that the wealthy at the top first got workers pensions and now they are going to get their homes. But on strictly a money comparison the US can weather this. Perhaps this is how it reallocates one classes wealth to another class, but instead of trickle down, its sweep it up.
Brian Stewart, Los Angeles, usa
Wishful thinking of the obviously envious.
Bob Hall, New York, United States
Who is to blame for the economic slump in the US? If it was here in the UK I'm sure the blame would go to the immigrants who work had, pay more taxes, take no tax benefits or Child trust funds!!
SAolution: Keep on and do your best and every thing will pass.
Allen, London,
The US economy is in dire straights. Just to keep the "shop front" clear, the Treasury borrows 2 or 3 billion dollars each and every day to the newest economic giant on the block, China. Both the Chinese and Japanese are underwriting the US debt to the tune of nearly a trillion dollars. They own the back-yards in the US. With lousey free-trade agreements, importing more than exporting, the ratchet turns. Someday soon the foreign financial wizards will dump the US dollar wholsale. Get real america, there is no gold standard backing the dollar! You can't keep printing money to buy your way out of trouble! Forget about the worth of those tax cuts, their worth is really are just "of the moment". Your media loves to hide the truth.
PJP, brisbane, australia
The US 'Sub-Prime' Mortgage scandal which 'rocked' the Norhern Rock Building Society will possibly have further events to play out. Possibly other UK Mortgage lenders will also be affected by this.
One wonders if history will repeat itself again. Back in the 1970s under the then Labour Government of Jim Callaghan as PM, went to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cap in hand for massive loans to bolster the failing UK economy.
Whats this got to do with todays NU Labour Government under Gordon Brown. Well, Gordon could well be forced either to increase Taxation in 2008 to bolster the Treasury coffers. Or, even order 'Captain' Alistair Darling to make clandestine approaches to the IMF and World Bank for bail-out loans to cover the squandereing of public funds on hair-brained and half-baked projects. The 'ID Card' system comes to mind along with several other IT Projects. Then there the 2012 Olympics 'Project'. Its all got to be paid for - oh yes. Council Tax for one!
G Clerke, Chelmsford, UK
Atten: Gary Duncan. Re: Your excellent column of 11-03-07.
I cannot deny your comments about our faults and dubious decisions of the recent past, but I can say that this country (U.S.) has built into it, the provisions for corrective action. Our decision to support The United Kingdom in WW II was one of our best. We have an election coming up, and we are all hoping for the election of a great government that will move to correct some of our faults. We also are hoping for the support of the U.K. in that effort, whose priceless advice and counsel are admired beyond measure.
O Englishmen In Hope and creed,
In blood and tongue our brothers!
We too are heirs of Runnymede;
And Shakespear's fame and Cromwell's deed,
are not alone our mother's. (J.G. Whittier)
With utmost sincerity, I remain:
Kenneth B. Smith, P.E.
Former Naval Person, WWII
Kenneth B. Smith, P.E., Wilmington, United States/Delaware
America and Britain face similiar problems, the governments
and the people are too heavily in debt. American government
debt is approaching 9 TRILLION DOLLARS this is almost at
bankruptcy levels. Both governments need to increase
public spending by little more than inflation and use the
revenue from growth in the economy to reduce borrowing and
then run a surplus to start paying off this horrendous debt like
Australia is doing, and also give selective tax cuts to help the
working poor and the creation of wealth which will boost the
economies growth rate. When l was young we had interest
rates of 12%, now the English people cannot cope with
interest rates of 6%, so indebted are we.
Roger, Weymouth, England
This pundit makes some silly assertions. How can we know how much home heating bills will increase this year when we don't know what the winter weather will be? Most householders heat with natural gas, not oil, and many have multi-year contracts guaranteeing a set price. And, Ian, Clinton also left Bush with an unsustainable stock market bubble. When this burst, the infusion of revenue to the Treasury disappeared. The tax cuts helped offset the effects of this, and were one of the few things Bush got right.
Barsoomian, Toledo, Ohio
If you think that you have only 13 more months til you get rid of Bush then watch 'Endgame' by Alex Jones on Google video or on www.prisonplanet.com - its probably the most disturbing thing you will ever see... no easy escape for anyone.....
john, London, United Kingdom
Americans deserve the leaders they vote for - Nixon Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush perhaps another Clinton(?) surely in all of the USA they can find someone who has been properly educated, can speak coherently and not drink to brain damage levels and keep his pecker in his pants?
Frank, London, UK
I am glad these are views of Americans and not so called "US thumping" Brits. However, I do support their sentiment. Let's hope for all that the word Bush will go back to only being known as a small tree!
Richard D, Plymouth, UK
That she has survived and will survive Bush, speaks of America's strength.
eugene, heidelberg, germany
The mood in America would improve should The Bush Junta resign en mass.
I live in a Republican stronghold and even they are talking how bad this administration is for everything.
Forget Iraq we all know that is a lie, but everything is out of control.
Republicans are dying for the day when they get rid of this curse.
So 13 more months to go.
Please attend one of the welcome back America days on Jan 21 2009.
In the meantime pray for all the innocent villagers who will be bombed in Afghanistan and Iraq as the effort to kill Osama gets more desperate by the hour.
Anything that moves is in danger from US bombs and covert death squads.
And that's the real truth
AlexH
Alex Hogg, salt lake city, us
A shrewd estimate of our American situation within its narrow focus. But the great problem looming for America goes beyond credit crunch, stock market nervousness, housing and consumer spending. The great problem is that a reckless president, having squandered recent gains, is now squandering our future wealth in a war we can't afford and haven't begun to pay for -- except now in the cost of oil. Recession is hardly the word for the thump now in store for us.
Ernest Werner, Trumansburg NY , USA
It is a neccesary correction. I wish it had come earlier when we were better able to deal with it, but such is life. There's something wrong when Warren Buffet has to go to Korea to find world class manufacturing assets.
The problem did not develop overnight and will not be solved overnight. Local market commentators can't decide if it's the top or the bottom of the cycle. Both are wrong - second law of thermodynamics. A pediatrician once told my mother it was better a child break their arm then grow up neurotic and the cruelties of the past 30 years are but hysterical neurosis.
Birth is always painful.
You win some, you lose some.
glenn schaefer, holbrook, Ny/ USA
The fall of the dollar is obviously having a marked impact on oil prices and inflation, here again Bush's incompetence is plain. He inherited a fiscal surplus from Clinton and managed to turn it into a huge deficit thanks to ill advised tax cuts for the rich and a one trillion dollar war in Iraq - after initially claiming that the war would pay for itself thanks to expected resurgent oil exports.
Ian, Frederick, USA MD
I live here (USA). I do not recognize the place he describes. What he writes is a mixture of wishful thinking and schadenfreude in advance; at best, because he lacks the ability to report on real American matters, it is hysterical displacement activity.
First cast out the beam out of thine own UK eye.
I wish you all, and yours, well.
Colin Miles, Charlotte, NC, USA
The housing market crash and credit disaster are going to mean that the Fed either has to inflate drastically or send the USA into a recession. The Fed is likely to have to drop the interest rate to a minimum of 3.5%. That is why sensible money has been going into commodities as they see rapidly rising inflation coming. The Fed will have to sacrifice the Dollar, but the real question is how large holders if Dollars such as Russia, Middle East, Japan and China will react. Certainly Europe does not want the ⬠higher than it is. Japan is once again on the edge of recession so what does that leave-gold probably.
As regards the USA economic statistics, these are very dubious. The inflation rate of 0.8% used to calculate the GDP figure was the lowest rate used since the Eisenhower administration. Remember oil and food prices are rising rapidly. The job figures are to a large extent made up by the Bureau of Labour Statistics using the death/birth model.
DRumsfeld, London, UK