Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter
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The housing slowdown worsened last month as the number of mortgage approvals fell by 14 per cent, the British Bankers' Association reported.
Members of the BBA recorded 52,685 approvals for house purchase in September, down from 61,051 the previous month and 27 per cent lower than a year ago. It was the smallest number of approvals for any September since 2000.
Approvals are the key measure of activity in the property market and a decline is seen as an early indicator of a slowdown in house prices.
Peter Newland, of Lehman Brothers, forecast that the Bank of England would show a decline in approvals from 109,000 to 100,000 next week in its official record of the whole market.
Mr Newland said: "All in all, we expect mortgage demand, and other indicators of housing activity, to slow further in the coming months, consistent with quite a sharp slowdown in house price inflation in 2008."
David Dooks, the BBA's director of statistics, said: "“Lower amounts of new mortgage lending and fewer loans approved for house purchase signal a weaker outlook for the mortgage market, particularly if loan supply reduces in the aftermath of the recent financial markets difficulties and borrowing costs remain at current levels.
"Despite reports of stronger retail sales, card spending was low in September, but so were repayment levels, giving rise to a small increase in net borrowing alongside a similar rise in loans and overdrafts, but overall demand for unsecured borrowing remains very weak.”
Surveys by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors have suggested that house prices are already falling at their fastest pace in two years.
Earlier this week Kate Barker, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, said that house prices appeared to be overvalued and could suffer from a change in people's expectations, amplified by uncertainties in the buy-to-let sector.
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For most people its only papermoney, expect for the investors who have the money to buy a second home who will feel the pinch!
If your house comes down 25% and the one you were looking to buy also comes down 25% then you are no better or worse off!
First Time buyers will be the people to benifit somewhat as the crazy mortgages people are signing up for means they will be living close to the edge for many years to come!
House prices are overvalued at the minute, prices may not be falling yet but 90% of estate agents will tell you nothing is shifting at the minute! And when nothing is selling the only way is down!
People wil bury their heads in the sand ingnoring the obvious state of the house marketing!
Robert, Belfast,
If an expert publishes tomorrow that houses are 20% under valued does that mean your house is suddenly worth 20% more? No, houses are bought and sold for prices that the vendor considers reasonable and the buyer considers value. Some people are victims of investing into property because its a good long term investment. Unfortunately, they will fall foul of the old rule of property investment that location, location, location sells. For those who have invested wisely a time of sitting on the fence approaches whilst others run scared. In considering the business aspect. Supply and demand has a direct relationship with price and volume. The country's population is set to increase therefore the demand will be constant. Lenders only make profits on lending therefore they will find a method to offer borrowing to their clients. My forecast... some negative news from the unfortunates, house prices will continue to rise slowly, lenders will offer longer term mortgages. Outlook....bright.
Jason Moorcroft, Frodsham, Cheshire
What did eveyone expect when over the past few years you could not turn on the tv or open a newspaper and not see or read about earning a fortune in buying, doing up and selling property. Media helped create the boom and now they are helping to create the doom. We can talk ourselves into a recession because its all about consumer confidence. Everything sells for the right price and property is still a good long term investment.
Laetitia, kent,
In response to David Harrison from Grantham, you should consider the potential downturn in the economy generally (thats starting to look very likely), and the fact that average house prices are now 4.5 average earnings (according to at least one recent survey). House buyers, whether seeking to take the plunge or trade up, will only be able to do so if someone is willing to lend them the money, and then only if they can afford to do so. At some point (which looks to be about now) the affordability ceiling will be reached at which point house prices cant continue to rise as no-one will be able to afford the houses.
simon, manchester, england
Now there's a surprise!! - with all the doom & gloom being reported that houses are overvalued by as much as 40% it's a wonder that anybody is even considering moving or buying at the moment. People looking to 'trade-up' will be holding on to see how prices move and to ensure that they don't buy just as the market falls, those looking to get onto the property ladder wil be stepping back just to see what happens and maybe pick up a "bargain" so you just happen to get a 'slowdown' and a fall off in Mortgage offers.. House prices may fall a bit, but few will be willing to sell for a loss (unless they have to) prefering to stay put for a while. All this does is to cause a backlog which will result in a release of pent-up demand sometime in the first six months of 2008 and then the rules of supply and demand will take over, just watch out for an increase in house prices early next year as all these people wanting to trade up or purchase for the first time finally take the plunge.
David Harrison, Grantham, Lincs
BTL = Buy to Lose. The penny has finally dropped and there are no longer any buyers supporting the bottom of the market. Gordon "no more boom and bust" Brown will soon be clearly shown up as the economic incompetent he really is. The only miracle about the UK economy is that the house of cards has stayed standing for so long!
My main concern now is that Mervyn King is pressured to flush Sterling down the toilet with the dollar in a desperate attempt to bail out the reckless speculators. Hanky Panky Paulson and Ben "Chopper" Benanke have capitulated to the Wall St clowns. Merv needs to be a man and hold up interest rates or rampant inflation will eat the typical UK wage slave alive.
Pete, Leamington Spa,
Why call this "gloom"? Surely it is good news if housing becomes more affordable.
Justin Murphy, Luxembourg,
Kate Barker is also trying to introduce measures to INCREASE the cost of building and improving homes including a Planning Gain Supplement tax . If she has any sense, she will drop these measures.
Further, Kate Barker has forced through stringent new building codes. One of these is the Code for Sustainable Homes, which provides a "sustainability rating" for homes. Certain types of homes have to meet certain of these ratings, which is pushing up the cost of building homes considerably. Nice environmentally friendly idea, but let's face it - we can't afford it. These codes ought to be relaxed during these uncertain times.
Phil, Surrey,
Early this year, real interest rates were at an all time low and lenders like northern Crock were flooding the market with cheap funds. Much of this went into investor demand for BTL properties for which the only hope of profit was capital appreciation.
Investor demand is now vanishing, Therefore we have the possibility of a 1990s crash onto which is superimposed a further, much faster downturn at the lower end of the market.
The vested interests are all saying "It'll be a gradual slowdown." but the Chancellor's CGT change seems to me to be a last desperate throw to stop a mass sell-off by recent investors and those keen on gaining maximum capital return with taper relief.
As this crash pans out, it'll be interesting to see the excuses of the new economic kids on the block as they try and explain why they thought it had to be different this time. What they clearly refuse to realise is that whilst the economy is different, the character of the house buying public is just the same!
Alexander Davidson, Crawley,
I agree with Kate Corwyn broadly. However, there is a common misconception (usually amongst those that do not own a property) that a housing correction is not a 'bad' thing - this is only true to the extent that it is long overdue.
In reality, a price correction is likely to cause a fairly protracted period of hardship for the whole economy. Those rubbing their hands with glee at the current state of the housing market should be less smug. The broader economic recession that will accompany any 'crash' will create a new set of hurdles, problems and concerns for those who are currently unable to buy a house. I wouldn't count on being able (or even wanting to) rush out and buy a house. House prices may rise very quicky, but downward corrections typically take much longer.
I do agree that it is scandalous that the government has allowed the market to reach this point. But that does not make the prospect of any correction a particularly palatable process.
TR, London,
Kate Corwyn, Exeter. Spot on! A housing market correction will be very good news for the vast majority of people - who need to either get on the property ladder or move up it. It will be bad for a minority who had hoped to downsize and release equity (I can only think that these are the very greedy, as they've had ample chance to sell up in the longest property boom in living memory) and property speculators who haven't sold in time - that's why it's called 'speculation'! I don't know why words such as 'bad' and 'gloom' are chosen. Perhaps the Times readership is dominated by the minority categories noted above?
Clive, Sussex, UK
Anil Chatterjee, Bury, Lancs. I'm no fan of Crash Gordon's fantasy economic policies, but I don't think the government can be blamed for people's stupidity. I briefly considered buying a house a couple of year's ago which would have cost over 7x my income. I had a scheme worked out involving an interest only mortgage and had found a bank willing to advance the loan - then I came to my senses!!! It should have been obvious to all but the most stupid in recent years that the housing boom was unsustainable. In a free society people have to be free to act stupidly and make mistakes. It will be a painful lesson, but following the longest credit fuelled party in recent history we're now set to experience the biggest property crash most people will have ever seen.
George, East Sussex, UK
Anil Chatterjee, Your misunderstanding of how this works is obvious. If taxes where cut the demand for mortgages would increase and as supply of housing is fixed in the short term and only slightly variable in the long term house prices would be higher.
It is because of this Government that inflation is very close to its target and GDP growth is so high.
Thomas Jarvis, Southend on Sea, Essex
I graduated from University this year, and did not understand why our generation should shoulder the debt of the older generations who have squandered their 'equity' on luxury goods such as 4x4's and convertibles.
The hangovers will be severe and long lasting especially for those who drunk of the 'good stuff' with eyes bulged and mouths wide open.
I feel sorry for those people my age who desperately sought to get onto the boat before it left without them. If only they had realised that the boat can never set sail in theory, for if it does then it soon has to return to port to allow people on board.
The housing market of the last decade has been one large pyramid scheme, that the Government loved due to increased tax. The Government should really have been taxing BTL more heavily to stop the speculative investment, the pain now will just be that much greater.
The leading indicator has been the share prices of the house builders - lost 50% of their value since February!!!
Phil Ashford, nottingham, england
This cannot be true !! When Brown was Chancellor he told us endlessly that there would be ' No booms, no busts', that he would always be prudent and that he would take no risks with stability.
Meanwhile, outside his ivory tower in the real world, the economy has been built upon a mountain of debt.
It looks like the chickens are coming home to roost, Gordon.
Rick, London, England
Housing Gloom?! the one thing that we all need - a place to live - shows signs that it may be about to get cheaper, and this is BAD news??
If you're a buy-to-let parasite then maybe it is bad news, my heart bleeds for them.
Simon Stock, Meppershall, Bedfordshire
Surprise surprise! People who work in this country are taxed to the hilt, and house prices are so ridiculously high that the ordinary wage will not be enough to pay a mortgage. My 2 bed semi cost 1.8 years' gross salary in 1963, and there was tax reduction on the mortgage interest. Today the same house would cost well over 8 years' gross salary for a person doing the same job as I had then. This follows ten years of Labour's incompetence at the helm.
Anil Chatterjee, Bury, Lancs,
Please don't refer to this as something bad, we are in desperate need of a correction in the property markets. The real error was Gordon Brown's in not precipitating a correction several years ago when the effects on the economy in general would have been far less severe.
Kate Corwyn, Exeter,