Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter
2 for 1 tickets to Singin' In The Rain, this coming Monday. Book now
Retail sales soared above all expectations last month while a key gauge of housing confidence slipped to its lowest level in two years. The exceptional high street activity revealed the split personality of consumers, suggesting that they remain unperturbed by the clouds gathering over the housing market and widespread forecasts of an economic slowdown next year.
Deep discounting on retail websites and in nonfood stores lay behind the surprising uplift of 0.6 per cent in sales volumes in September over the previous month, reported yesterday by the Office for National Statistics. Analysts said that poor weather also drove demand for clothes.
Geoffrey Dicks, of RBS, said there had been “a sea-change in high street pricing” since the spring. While food inflation remained fairly high, prices in nonfood stores had tumbled by 3 per cent over the past year, the strongest deflation for 3 years. Internet sales prices sank by a record 7.8 per cent.
As a result, sales volumes rose by 6.3 per cent over the year to September, the highest rate since 2004. But at the same time, figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed that gross mortgage lending rose by a meagre 2.5 per cent in September compared with a year ago - the weakest such growth in more than two years.
The British Bankers’ Association also reported a slowing in underlying mortgage lending to £5.8 billion from £6.1 billion in August. House prices have already started to fall in some areas in response to higher interest rates. The IMF gave warning this week that the market was in danger of following the slump in American house prices, reporting that houses were overpriced by up to 40 per cent.
Surveys show that consumer confidence has also been hit by the run on Northern Rock. The Treasury expects that the sub-prime mortgage crisis will knock GDP growth sharply next year.
Peter Newland, of Lehman Brothers, said: “Strength in the third quarter has in large part been driven by lower prices for consumer goods. Other fundamental factors, such as income growth and interest rates, point to a slowdown in spending in the fourth quarter and into 2008.”
Enjoy screenings of all the classic films you love, plus take advantage of two-for-one tickets
Have you ever dreamed of owning your own racehorse or a beautiful painting?
Enjoy comfort, safety, space and great design. Plus enter our great competition
Times Online's new TV show helps you make the right decisions for your pet
Are you California dreaming? Explore the wonders of the Golden State. Also enter our fantastic competition
Do you have what it takes to be a Times photographer?
Your brain is capable of more than you might think...
Find out to make the most of your money with our wealth management guides
Need help with your property? We have an entire how to guide - buying, selling, letting, moving, to help you
We are seeking entries for the inaugural Sunday Times Best Green Companies Awards
Enjoy some wonderful inspiring wildlife moments
An interactive preview of the brand new For Your Eyes Only exhibition

Love Sudoku? Play our brand new interactive game: with added functionality and daily prizes

Are you irritable when you return from work? Drained of emotion? You could be suffering from boreout
Prepare for some shock and awe, petrol lovers. Despite the greens trying to wipe it out, the car is about to offer us the most exciting year ever
We've trawled the brochures and websites to find this summer’s best holidays for every taste and budget

Overseas contacts and local business information

Find a course, arrange a game and save money
2007/07
£57,500
South East England
2007/07
£40,995
South East England
2006/06
£41,995
South East England
Great car insurance deals online
£40-55k+benefits+uncapped commission
Morgan Keating
South East
Up to £30,000
GLE
London
£
c£75,000 + executive benefits
Morgan Keating
London and South
Unpaid with travel expenses
Network Rail
Globrix, the property search engine
Visit Times Online Property for homes for sale or rent
Residential development site with planning permission
£1,500,000
Mortgages, bank accounts & money transfers to help you buy abroad
Dinarobin Hotel Golf & Spa 7 nights
From £1830 per person – saving £530.
Walking & multi-activity holidays in Cauterets. Stylish self-catering apartments.
From 350€ for 7 nights.
SAVE 25% on Sandals Luxury Resorts
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Search globrix.com to buy or rent UK property.
© Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Let us hope we can follow America's lead. In the
US property prices have been falling for a year whilst
consumer spending, employment and growth have
thus far been unaffected.
Mark, Loughton, Essex