Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter
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The Bank of England is now actively discussing whether to cut interest rates, official minutes from its Monetary Policy Committee show.
Experts said that the mood of the rate-setting MPC was shifting towards a cut after the Bank’s official minutes revealed yesterday that the issue was debated at its October meeting and one member voted in favour of a cut.
Most analysts believe that the Bank will wait until early next year before taking action. But the minutes suggest that the Bank has given itself room to slash rates as soon as next month if the turmoil in the financial markets returns.
The MPC has given out mixed messages in recent weeks over how quickly it should take action after the credit crisis in the summer that led to a run on Northern Rock.
While the committee does not want to be seen to bail out struggling banks by lowering rates, the crisis is expected to deliver a blow to the economy’s growth over the coming months as the financial sector struggles to cope with a tougher climate.
Mervyn King, the Bank’s Governor, has tried to dampen speculation that a rate cut could come as soon as next month, saying that he remained on the alert for a series of persistent risks over inflation.
Official figures on wages released yesterday supported that view. The data from the Office for National Statistics showed that earnings growth, including bonuses, rose to an annual pace of 3.7 per cent in August from 3.5 per cent the previous month. A Reuters poll yesterday showed that only one in four City economists expected rates to be cut before next year.
But the minutes suggested that several Bank officials would like to move swiftly, noting that “a precautionary reduction in Bank Rate could forestall a sharper slowdown in output growth” caused by worsening credit conditions and the risk of a slowdown in Europe and the US.
Some members of the MPC argued that if they did cut rates and the crisis eased they could raise them later. Others said that the economy was in “a position of strength”, which gave the MPC time to wait and see how markets reacted. Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, said: “While most members believe that the downside risks to the economy have increased, they apparently see little urgency to act.”
The figures from the ONS suggested that the labour market continued to tighten last month. The number claiming jobseeker’s allowance fell by 12,800 in September, bringing the number of claimants to 835,800, the lowest since March 2005.
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