If the Bank of Engalnd's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes next month to cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years, it will represent a huge moral victory for one man.

That figure is David "Danny" Blanchflower, the panel's perpetual optimist who up until now has carried very little clout.

Throughout the past year, his repeated calls for lower rates have been overruled by the steamroller tendency represented by Andrew Sentance, Tim Besley and Mervyn King, the Bank's Governor.

But cometh the hour, cometh the man. For the first time, his vote for a cut looks like being at the vanguard of opinion rather than the rearguard, because the MPC did discuss cutting rates this month, today's minutes show.

That has reignited the prospect of Britain's hard-pressed homeowners seeing lower base rates by Christmas.

His personal logic - that a soft labour market is countering inflationary pressures - seems a little strained in the light of today's news that earnings including bonuses rose by a fairly robust 3.8 per cent over the year to August.

But for the whole panel, the issue of the credit squeeze looms large. The severity of the financial sector's liquidity woes, which are still ongoing, have forced the MPC to revise downwards its forecast for inflation and growth. And for other reasons, inflation is already considerably lower than the MPC last forecast, giving them room for manoeuvre.

The question is, do today's doveish minutes mean that the MPC is preparing the ground for a swift November cut? Or is it just that the panel is uncertain what the future holds, and divided on how fast to act?

Today's minutes mean that there is everything to play for next month.

If the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes next month to cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years, it will represent a huge moral victory for one man.

Until now, David "Danny" Blanchflower, the panel's perpetual optimist, has carried very little clout.

Throughout the past year, his repeated calls for lower rates have been overruled by the steamroller tendencies of Andrew Sentance, Tim Besley and Mervyn King, the Bank's Governor.

But cometh the hour, cometh the man.

For the first time, his vote for a cut looks like being at the vanguard of opinion rather than the rearguard, after the MPC discussed reducing the rate this month, reigniting the prospect of Britain's hard-pressed homeowners seeing lower base rates by Christmas.

His personal logic - that a soft labour market is countering inflationary pressures - seems a little strained in the light of today's news that earnings including bonuses rose by a fairly robust 3.7 per cent over the year to August.

But for the whole MPC panel, the issue of the credit squeeze looms large.

The severity of the financial sector's ongoing liquidity woes have forced the MPC to revise its forecast for inflation and growth downwards. And for other reasons, inflation is already considerably lower than the MPC last forecast, giving them room for manoeuvre.

The question is, do today's dove-ish minutes mean that the MPC is preparing the ground for a swift November cut? Or is it just that the panel is uncertain what the future holds, and divided on how fast to act?

There is everything to play for next month.

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