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House prices in the UK have fallen for the second consecutive month and the number of those seeking to buy has dropped for the tenth month in a row, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said today.
RICS said that 14.6 per cent more surveyors reported a drop in house prices last month than those reporting a rise.
It is the biggest difference for two years. In September 2005, 19.4 per cent more surveyors reported seeing a drop in the price of property than those who saw a rise.
In August this year, the figure was only 3.3 per cent.
RICS said that both the five increases in interest rates since August 2006 and mortgage providers tightening up their lending criteria had put the brakes on inquiries from potential buyers.
It said that 51 per cent more of its members reported a decline in the number of people looking to buy a new home compared with 39 per cent of surveyors in August and that fewer properties were coming on to the market.
In the UK, new instructions had declined for the fourth month in a row, but in London, people are still eager to sell their properties.
Jeremy Leaf, of RICS, said: “Although house prices continue to fall, the underlying economy remains strong.
"A major correction in the market seems unlikely while economic growth is above trend and employment conditions remain buoyant.
“The combination of rising interest rates, the introduction of Hips [home information packs] and volatility in the financial markets resulting in tightening of lending criteria has certainly affected the confidence of buyers and sellers.”
He added: “As a result, some would-be buyers are turning to the rental market, whereas others, conscious that the next move in interest rates is now likely to be down rather than up and market meltdown is highly improbable, are seizing the opportunity to negotiate with more flexible vendors in a less competitive marketplace.”
This month the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the UK interest rate unchanged at 5.75 per cent.
Both Nationwide and Halifax recently reported declines in the growth of house prices.
Last month, Halifax said that the rate of increase slowed to 0.6 per cent, the first monthly fall since December last year.
Overall, house prices in the third quarter of this year rose by 0.9 per cent, but this was compared with an increase of 3 per cent in the first three months of 2007 and 2.3 per cent in the three months to June.
Nationwide said that prices rose 1.6 per cent rise in the three months to September, but this compared with a 1.9 per cent in the three months to June.
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I cannot think of a single reason why house prices will rise next year.The economy will slow,consumer spending will fall,unemployment is likely to rise.On top of this ,oil is record high the the next move on interest rates may be up in order to control inflation.The BTL market is in trouble.Most people rent because they carn't afford to buy.How can they possibly able to effectively pay someone elses mortgage allowing them to make a profit after costs.The sums just don't add up.The banks are also tightening their lending ctiteria which will make it more difficult for BTLs to borrw even more money.Oh,isnt their a 1.3 trillion consumer debt mountain to start paying off,or is it 1.4 trillion by now.Remember,it was 'only' 1 trillion in September 2005.Couple this with increasing public debt due to less tax reciepts,what have you got.A BIG PROBLEM.
The cycle of Boom and bust may be over according to Gorgrn Brown.Why not stretch the economic cycle to infinity?
Stephen Hulton, Eure, France
I told you so! This will like all other markets (because houses are now not just homes they are perceived as 'investments' or 'equity') go on and on and overshoot the base level (whatever that might be) This market is now reliant on first time buyers instead of buy to let investors. It would be a very foolish first time buyer who would risk buying in a declining market, regardless of housing shortages (which should now be addressed by the government by making more building land available in the near future.
Diddly do, Liverpool,
Interesting that Barry Dupont thinks "it will be more to do with good old sentiment that will decide what happens to mouse prices"
I think that the price of a mouse will stay in line with other small rodents and have nothing to do with sentiment, but that's just my opinion.
Andy Beck, London,
Well said Mr Hexter, herd mentality plus what the IMF say, Mr Greenspan said, those with a brain, and all those without a vested interest in you buying property at the top of an overvalued market.
T Miller, Oxted, Surrey
well the price of a mouse has always been a deciding factor in the economy. If the mice get too pricey, then the other rodents become unsettled which can lead to general instability and a decrease in fat cats due to rodent scarcity.
joseph, bradford, uk
All comes down to herd mentality in the end.
Robert Hexter, Vancouver ex Notts UK, Vancouver BC
It seems to be 'high demand', 'healthy underlying economy' and 'full employment' Vs 'higher interest rates', 'credit squeeze', 'record debt levels', 'hips' and 'slower economic growth'. Personally though I think it will be more to do with good old sentiment that will decide what happens to mouse prices. There certainly seems to be less on TV about property- whilst it is abstract it may be good indication of the nation's appetite for the subject.
barry dupont, brighton, east sussex